1. ESPON 2013 Programme – Open Seminar “European Territorial Evidence for EU Cohesion Policy and Programming” 13-14 June 2012 - Aalborg, Denmark Session 2 - Workshop 7 Environmental Resources, Climate Change and Risk Prevention A.P. Russo (URV, LP) and L. Servillo (KUL) ATTREG Project (ESPON 2013/1/7) “The Attractiveness of Regions and Cities for Residents and Visitors” (2010-2012)

2. LEAD PARTNER University Rovira i Virgili (ES) PROJECT PARTNERS KU Leuven (BE) Univ. of Venice Ca’ Foscari (IT) EURICUR Rotterdam (NL) Univ. of Coimbra (PT) Centre for Tourism Research (DK) IGSO (PL) Univ. of Ljubljana (SI) Univ. of West England (UK) RESEARCH SUBCONTRACTOR Istanbul Technological University (TR)

3. The ATTREG project Objectives of the project – Understanding the attractiveness of territorial assets to different “audiences”, looking into the 2001-07 period – Explaining mains spatial trends, classifying regions accordingly – Investigate these relations at different spatial scales, and focusing on idiosyncrasies and “immeasurable” facts – Developing an analytic framework to asses different policy options Achievements – 30+ indicators and 5 regional typologies of potential and realised attractiveness, providing inputs for place-based attraction strategies – 8 case studies illustrating “mobilisation” mechanisms in a variety of contexts and territorial scales – 18 scenarios to assess the potential impacts of different policy options (“inclusive”, “smart”, “sustainable”)

4. What attracts whom? ANTROPIC CAPITAL ECONOMIC-HUMAN CAPITAL ENVIRONMENTAL CAPITAL INSTITUTIONAL CAPITAL SOCIO-CULTURAL CAPITAL

5. Δ TCI (warm cold months)

6. Perc. Natura 2000 sites (on total surface)

7. CLASS B Relatively rich in environmental assets(alone) CLASS A Relatively rich in environmental and antropic assets - ‘too’ attractive? CLASS C Relatively rich in economic, social and institutional assets CLASS D A mix of everything Regional typology by relative endowments with different forms of territorial capital

8. Less attractive than what expected from territorial endowments Much less attractive than what expected from territorial endowments As attractive as predicted through territorial endowments More attractive than what expected from territorial endowments Much more attractive than what expected from territorial endowments

9. Main policy insights from the ATTREG analysis Climate – Climatic conditions and stability as important pull factors for human mobility as a ‘soft’ factor driving the migration of workers in the 2000s – Overlapping with tourism mobility has produced “excessive” attraction especially in south-western regions – Worsening climate condition may determine a “return to normality”? – Other areas did a good job in capitalising on their climatic attractiveness Environmental preservation – Adds to attractiveness especially in regions that are under-endowed of antropic and economic capital – Good performance of sparsely populated regions in the proximity of congested urban areas – Few regions in the East and South fully capitalised on this advantage

10. Environmental preservation as a “policy lever” ATTREG’s “scenario analysis” allowed to check the effects on territorial cohesion produced by policy bundles which relate to the inclusive, smart, sustainable policy strategies as deviations on population, GDP, “export” jobs over baseline (status quo) DEMIFER scenario predictions Application of “sustainable” policy bundle... – Protection of cultural and natural environments, protection and valorisation of cultural heritage and other visitor attractions proxies: 1) monument index; 2) Natura 2000 protected area – Limitation of polluting factors (particularly those related to transport, such as cost of fuel, taxation, etc.) proxies: 3) ranking of airports; 4) accessibility through road and ferry network – Policies related to quality of life and capacity of retention, in particular for the younger population proxies: 5) life satisfaction; 6) dependency rate.... to “overheating” and “convergence” regions

11. “Sustainable” policy in convergence regions – predicted change over baseline POPULATIONP.C. GDP

12. “Sustainable” policy in overheating regions – predicted change over baseline POPULATIONP.C. GDP

13. THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION! antonio.russo@urv.cat loris.servillo@asro.kuleuven.be