1. ECONOMIC GUIDING LINES OF FOREST SECTOR DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLANNING Anatoly Petrov, rector, Professor, Dr.Ec.Sc. All-Russian Institute of Continuous Education in Forestry MARCH 13, 2013 HELSINKI, FINLAND

2. № Kinds of planLevelApprovalPeriodTarget WhoWhen 1Long-term strategy of forest complex development Federal Ministry of Industry Ministry of Agriculture 2008Until 2020 To create effective branch and regional structure of forest sector 2 State programme “Development of forestry from 2013 until 2020” Federal Government of the Russian Federation 2012 December Until 2020 Effective allocations of budget fundings Slide 2 STRATEGIC PLANS OF FOREST SECTOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION Slide 1

3. № Kinds of planLevelApprovalPeriodTarget WhoWhen 3Prognosis of long-term social- economic development of the Russian Federation until 2030 Division: forest industries complex Federal Government of the Russian Federation December 2012 Until 2030 To create the branch and regional priorities of forest sector 4Forest plan of the Subject of Federation RegionalRegional authorities 200810 yearsSustainable management of forest resources 5Regional programm of forestry development RegionalRegional authorities 2012-2013Until 2020 Budget allocations

4. Slide 2 1. The idea to carry out the Russian Forest Sector Outlook Study belonged to FAO. 2. This idea was supported officially by the Federal Forest Agency of the Russian Federation. 3. Period of study: September 2011-June 2012 4. 22 russian experts contributed to the study. 5. Forest Sector Outlook Study was presented to: 5.1. FAO Forestry Committee – Rome, September 2012 5.2. European Economic Commission – Geneva, October 2012 1. The idea to carry out the Russian Forest Sector Outlook Study belonged to FAO. 2. This idea was supported officially by the Federal Forest Agency of the Russian Federation. 3. Period of study: September 2011-June 2012 4. 22 russian experts contributed to the study. 5. Forest Sector Outlook Study was presented to: 5.1. FAO Forestry Committee – Rome, September 2012 5.2. European Economic Commission – Geneva, October 2012

5. Slide 7 1. Forest resources development estimation 2. Methods to estimate the demands for forest products, 3. Wood harvesting and its consumption, 4. Forest industries development, 5. Forest reproduction and protection, 6. Forest policy and legislation development Slide 3

6. Forest sector keeps existing trends of wood consumption, wood supply and demand in domestic and export markets, volume of investment and leasing system to access forest resource. As result the forest sector will be outside economic and political priorities with low contribution to gross domestic revenue (about 1,3% in 2010) Slide 4

7. INNOVATION SCENARIO OF FOREST SECTOR DEVELOPMENT  Innovation development based on the high annual rates of macroeconomic indicators growth.  The low level of annual growth of gross domestic revenue will be higher than 4%.  Under this scenario main factor to develop sector will be growth of demand for wood products in the domestic market under state support.  Substitution of forest leasing system by concessions and forest privatization are considered as additional stimuluses to keep the high rates of output production and investment. Slide 5

8. TRANSITION SCENARIO OF FOREST SECTOR DEVELOPMENT  This scenario will take place when it would be necessary to overcome negative consequences of unpredictable political and economical events on the global and national levels.  Under transition scenario existing system of forest management is to be revised and technological processes in forest industries are to be modernized.  During transition period forest sector is to be adopted to the WTO principles. Slide 6

9. Planning targets Demand for forest products and services Forest resources supply Forest administration and management Slide 7

10. Domestic market Export market Demand for forest products Public sector Regions, countries Slide 8 Population WTO rules

11. Forest inventory data Potential (biological) resources Losses Real (physical) resources Rates of production losses Unaccessible resources Economically accessible resources Rates of production losses Criteria of Economic accessibility Losses Slide 9

12. This system is to be improved by: 1. Development of new forms of public – private partnership in forest sector, 2. Liberalization of economic relations between public authorities and private business, 3. Development of property rights for forest land, 4. Strengthing of capacity building of forest administration, 5. Development of forest certification. Slide 10

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