Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

IES Key points of Russian energy strategy up to 2030 – between Europe and Asia Dr. Alexey Gromov Deputy General Director Institute for Energy Strategy.

Published byTheodore Rice Modified over 8 years ago

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "IES Key points of Russian energy strategy up to 2030 – between Europe and Asia Dr. Alexey Gromov Deputy General Director Institute for Energy Strategy."— Presentation transcript:

1 IES Key points of Russian energy strategy up to 2030 – between Europe and Asia Dr. Alexey Gromov Deputy General Director Institute for Energy Strategy Moscow, Russia The future of the global gas market: an EU-Russian perspective Brainstorming workshop Milan, 30 september – 1 October, 2010

2 Energy Strategy 2030 in the System of Documents of the Strategic Development
Long-term forecast of the development of Russian economy for the years Conception of the long-term development of the Russian Federation for the year 2020 ES-2030 General scheme of development of the gas industry for the year 2030 General scheme of allocation of power generating facilities for the year 2020 General scheme of development of the oil industry for the year 2030 State program of energy saving Eastern Gas Program Conception of the state program for exploration and exploitation of the continental shelf of the Russian Federation Program of long-term development of the fuel and energy complex of the Russian Far East Strategy of development of the power generation in the Russian Far East Investment programs of energy companies 2 2

3 IES ENERGY STRATEGY 2030 approved by decree N° 1715-r of the Government of the Russian Federation of 1ST STAGE 2ND STAGE 3RD STAGE Growth of national economy and quality of life of the population Share of Energy sector in Economy Overcoming the crisis in the Economy and Energy sector Modernization of Energy sector Increase of power efficiency and energy saving in the Economy and Energy sector Innovative development of Energy sector New oil and gas fields development (Arctic shelf, Eastern Siberia and the Far East) Highly effective use of traditional power resources Switch to the Energy of the Future 2020 2022 2015 2013 2009 2030 2 3

4 Foreign energy policy and ES-2030 targets: Eastern and Western vectors
IES Foreign energy policy and ES-2030 targets: Eastern and Western vectors Western Vector (European Market) Eastern Vector (Asian-Pacific Market) Russian Gas Export, 2009 Russian Gas Export, 2030 (projected) EU market is essential for Russian gas export (75%) Western Vector accounts for 96% of Russian gas export (EU + other Europe) Russia seeks for export diversification Russia promotes eastern vector of energy export 3

5 Eastern Vector for Russian Energy Policy
IES Eastern Vector for Russian Energy Policy 4

6 EASTERN VECTOR IN ES-2030: NEW SIDES OF “OLD” TASK
IES EASTERN VECTOR IN ES-2030: NEW SIDES OF “OLD” TASK Road Map of implementation of ES-2030 : Eastern vector task №19 «Increase in the share of the Asia-Pacific countries in the structure of the Russian energy export to 16–17%» task №10 «Implementation of a complex of program measures for petrochemistry and gas-chemistry development in the Eastern Siberia and Far East» task № 17 «Extended reproduction and attraction of human resources for development of new areas of the Eastern Siberia and Far East» Eastern vector Key initiatives in the Russian energy sector: Eastern vector Energy infrastructure: development and diversification ESPO pipeline, Eastern Gas Program, petro- and gas-chemistry development Development of oil and gas complexes in Eastern regions of Russia Sakalin, Yakutia, Magadan, Irkutsk and Krasnoyarsk regions Shelf of the East Arctic, reanimation of the Northern Sea Way Exploitation of the oil and gas potential of the Northern regions of Russia and Arctic shelf Large-scale development of hydro energy and renewables Non-fuel energy Modernization of electric power and heat supply systems in the Region Energy saving 5

7 THE EAST IS A KEY DIRECTION OF DIVERSIFICATION
IES THE EAST IS A KEY DIRECTION OF DIVERSIFICATION OF THE RUSSIAN EXPORT Forecast of gas export 6

8 KEY PROJECTS IN THE EASTERN SIBERIA AND THE FAR EAST
IES KEY PROJECTS IN THE EASTERN SIBERIA AND THE FAR EAST Eastern Gas Program Natural gas Export to China Sakhalin development LNG Projects in Sakhalin 7

9 FIRST RESULTS OF ES-2030: CAREFUL OPTIMISM
IES FIRST RESULTS OF ES-2030: CAREFUL OPTIMISM 2008 2009 Strategic Indicator for the first stage of ES-2030 ( ) Share of Eastern Siberia and the Far East in gas production 2% 3,7% 7-8% LNG share in gas export 0% 3,5% 4-5% Share of the countries of the Asia-Pacific Region in the structure of gas export 11-12% 8

10 Western Vector for Russian Energy Policy
IES Western Vector for Russian Energy Policy 9

11 WESTERN VECTOR IN ES-2030: KEY PROJECTS & GOALS
IES WESTERN VECTOR IN ES-2030: KEY PROJECTS & GOALS Nord Stream (started in April 2010) task №19 Increase the Russian gas export to European market 160 bcm in 2008 120 bcm in 2009 2030 target bcm task №21 Promote the gas pricing system in Europe, including both long-term and spot contracts task № Bilateral investment in gas projects South Stream (projected) Shtokman (projected) 10

12 DISTURBING RESULTS OF 2009 ON EUROPEAN GAS MARKET
IES DISTURBING RESULTS OF ON EUROPEAN GAS MARKET 12% 24% Export to Europe Export (total) Gas production (Russia) Gas production (GAZPROM) Gas production has fallen to level of 2000 Gas export to Europe was reduced to a quarter 11

13 Long-term export dynamics & reasons
Composition of EU gas import Source: EEGA Factors of decrease in export expectations Price situation in 2009 Europe: Competition growth (LNG, new pipelines) Pricing change (spot market vs. long-term contracts) Renewables & energy efficiency Geopolitics (Nabucco, anti-Gazprom rules in 3rd Gas Directive etc.) Price, USD/bcm Russian gas (long-term contracts, Europe) 288 LNG (US, Henry Hub) 147 LNG (Great Britain, NBP) 142 LNG (Japan, Korea) 260 LNG (Chine) 160 12

14 IES Conclusions 9

15 Export Expectations vs. Reality
IES Export Expectations vs. Reality Russian Gas Export forecast up to period 2030 Factors of decrease in export expectations Europe: Competition growth US: refuse of future Russian LNG (the boom of shale gas production) Asia-Pacific: competition growth (Central Asia) 15-20% Russian gas export forecast (high level from ES-2030) Russian gas export forecast (low level from ES-2030) Russian gas export forecast (IES expectations) Risk of decrease in export on % 13

16 Balancing Eastern and Western Vectors: Tasks for Russian Energy Policy
IES Balancing Eastern and Western Vectors: Tasks for Russian Energy Policy From export orientation to the domestic market Cost reduction in Russian natural gas industry Revision of investment projects - Selection of priority projects among declared in ES-2030 - Refusal of a number of ineffective projects-giants (the Southern stream, etc.) Flexibility of gas export policy - Revision of pricing system in long-term contracts of Gazprom - Flexibility increase in mutual relations with Ukraine and Central Asia 14

17 Issues for Russia – EU relationships
IES Issues for Russia – EU relationships - EU gas market forecast - EU secure demand for Russian natural gas - The real need for new pipeline project in relation to future demand - The transit problem & politics toward Ukraine & Belarus - 3rg Gas Directive & Regulative issues - Bilateral investment in gas fields, pipelines, and marketing 14

18 Thank you for your attention!
IES Thank you for your attention! 15

Download ppt "IES Key points of Russian energy strategy up to 2030 – between Europe and Asia Dr. Alexey Gromov Deputy General Director Institute for Energy Strategy."

Similar presentations

DG Energy and Transport, European Commission Fabrizio Barbaso 16/04/2008 EU ENERGY SECURITY STRATEGIES ARF Energy Security Seminar EUROPEAN COMMISSION.

DG Energy and Transport, European Commission Fabrizio Barbaso 16/04/2008 EU ENERGY SECURITY STRATEGIES ARF Energy Security Seminar EUROPEAN COMMISSION.
NMC Petroleum Strategy Workshop, Stavanger 24th nov. 2005 1 Northern Maritime Corridor Petroleum Strategy Workshop, Stavanger 24. november 2005 The Barents.

NMC Petroleum Strategy Workshop, Stavanger 24th nov Northern Maritime Corridor Petroleum Strategy Workshop, Stavanger 24. november 2005 The Barents.
Baltic Energy Strategy Einari Kisel Director of Energy Department.

Baltic Energy Strategy Einari Kisel Director of Energy Department.
1 Energy Strategy of Russia in Respect of Asia-Pacific Region and Japan V.V. Saenko Deputy General Director Institute for Energy Strategy Japan-Russia.

1 Energy Strategy of Russia in Respect of Asia-Pacific Region and Japan V.V. Saenko Deputy General Director Institute for Energy Strategy Japan-Russia.
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, June 15, 2012

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, June 15, 2012
Energy Security and Current Developments in the Russia-EU Energy Relationship Jack Sharples University of Glasgow.

Energy Security and Current Developments in the Russia-EU Energy Relationship Jack Sharples University of Glasgow.
RUSSIAN OIL AND NATURAL GAS : DEPENDENCY ON EUROPE By William M.C. Phillips 30 August, 2007 NS 3041, Professor Robert Looney.

RUSSIAN OIL AND NATURAL GAS : DEPENDENCY ON EUROPE By William M.C. Phillips 30 August, 2007 NS 3041, Professor Robert Looney.
Russian Gas Market Perspective Alexey GROMOV Ph.D, Deputy General Director Institute for Energy Strategy 14th December 2011.

Russian Gas Market Perspective Alexey GROMOV Ph.D, Deputy General Director Institute for Energy Strategy 14th December 2011.
Asian and Pacific Energy Forum 2013 BUSINESS FORUM Boris Saneev Dmitry Sokolov Deputy Director ESI SB RAS Researcher, APERC The Eastern Vector of Russian.

Asian and Pacific Energy Forum 2013 BUSINESS FORUM Boris Saneev Dmitry Sokolov Deputy Director ESI SB RAS Researcher, APERC The Eastern Vector of Russian.
Dr. Younkyoo Kim The Korean Peninsula and International Relations in Northeast Asia Hanyang University, Seoul Nov. 30, 2012 Dr. Younkyoo Kim The Korean.

Dr. Younkyoo Kim The Korean Peninsula and International Relations in Northeast Asia Hanyang University, Seoul Nov. 30, 2012 Dr. Younkyoo Kim The Korean.
Elena Telegina Director of the Institute of Geopolitics and Energy Security Corresponding Member of Russian Academy of Sciences Dean, International Energy.

Elena Telegina Director of the Institute of Geopolitics and Energy Security Corresponding Member of Russian Academy of Sciences Dean, International Energy.
energy strategy of Russia (ES – 2020) East vector

energy strategy of Russia (ES – 2020) East vector
OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES Natural Gas Research Programme Russian and its potential impact on the global LNG market James Henderson Natural Gas.

OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES Natural Gas Research Programme Russian and its potential impact on the global LNG market James Henderson Natural Gas.
INITIATIVE FOR GAS HUB CREATION IN SOUTH EASTERN EUROPE SOFIA, 09.02.2015 г.

INITIATIVE FOR GAS HUB CREATION IN SOUTH EASTERN EUROPE SOFIA, г.
1 The actual problems of Energy Saving and Energy Efficiency in Russia Northeast Asia International Conference for Economic Development 2009 Niigata, Japan.

1 The actual problems of Energy Saving and Energy Efficiency in Russia Northeast Asia International Conference for Economic Development 2009 Niigata, Japan.
© OECD/IEA - 2006 2006 NATURAL GAS MARKET REVIEW 2006 Towards a Global Gas Market TOWARDS A GLOBAL GAS MARKET APEx CONFERENCE, Seoul 31 October 2006 Session.

© OECD/IEA NATURAL GAS MARKET REVIEW 2006 Towards a Global Gas Market TOWARDS A GLOBAL GAS MARKET APEx CONFERENCE, Seoul 31 October 2006 Session.
International Energy Forum St. Gallen, November 27, 2014 Alexei Ispolinov Head of International Law department Moscow State University

International Energy Forum St. Gallen, November 27, 2014 Alexei Ispolinov Head of International Law department Moscow State University
Energy Strategy of Russia for the Year 2030: Approaches, Priorities and Reference Points «Energetika XXI: economy, policy, ecology» «Energy security provision.

Energy Strategy of Russia for the Year 2030: Approaches, Priorities and Reference Points «Energetika XXI: economy, policy, ecology» «Energy security provision.
Russian Energy Strategy up to Period 2030: Questions, Troubles, Risks Dr. Alexey Gromov Deputy General Director Institute for Energy Strategy Moscow, Russia.

Russian Energy Strategy up to Period 2030: Questions, Troubles, Risks Dr. Alexey Gromov Deputy General Director Institute for Energy Strategy Moscow, Russia.
SECURITY OF GAS SUPPLY IN OPEN MARKETS LNG AND POWER AT A TURNING POINT INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Security of European Gas Supply What are the important.

SECURITY OF GAS SUPPLY IN OPEN MARKETS LNG AND POWER AT A TURNING POINT INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Security of European Gas Supply What are the important.

Similar presentations

Ads by Google