1. Russia: Post-2012 Climate Policy Issues Dr. George Safonov Director, Center for Environmental Economics State University – Higher School of Economics under the Government of Russian Federation

2. Post-Kyoto concerns Fast economic growth and slowly growing carbon emissions in Russia Fast economic growth and slowly growing carbon emissions in Russia Lack of experience in carbon emission control Lack of experience in carbon emission control Low priority of climate in domestic policy making, but recognition that this is a significant issue of international policy Low priority of climate in domestic policy making, but recognition that this is a significant issue of international policy Political need for maintaining work within UN Political need for maintaining work within UN Unclear structure of the post-Kyoto international deal by now (role of US, G77&China, etc.) Unclear structure of the post-Kyoto international deal by now (role of US, G77&China, etc.)

3. GHG emission forecasts in Russia 1990 baseline level of GHG emissions CO2 emission forecasts based on Russian Energy Strategy - 2020 CO2 emission forecasts based on recent macroeconomic forecasts by Ministry of Economic Development Challenge: now there are NO scenarios with stable or declining GHG emissions in Russia at all

4. Likely position of Russia at COP15 (2009) -25-40% by 2020 is not acceptable for Russia -25-40% by 2020 is not acceptable for Russia -10-15% cap is negotiable, this is reachable level, regarding Kyoto surplus and existing potential for emission reduction -10-15% cap is negotiable, this is reachable level, regarding Kyoto surplus and existing potential for emission reduction No active involvement in negotiations of caps No active involvement in negotiations of caps Waiting for the US and G77&China to take commitments Waiting for the US and G77&China to take commitments Flexible mechanisms are welcome, otherwise the Kyoto surplus is not capitalized Flexible mechanisms are welcome, otherwise the Kyoto surplus is not capitalized

5. Climate policy instruments JI is in place, GIS is considered, no ETS yet JI is in place, GIS is considered, no ETS yet Higher priority of policies and measures approach, such as targeted programs and regulations are adopted, e.g. energy efficiency standards, forestry programs, corporate programs (Gazprom), etc. Higher priority of policies and measures approach, such as targeted programs and regulations are adopted, e.g. energy efficiency standards, forestry programs, corporate programs (Gazprom), etc. Ministry of Economic Development welcomes business proposals about ETS, but is not intended to limit GHG emissions itself at the moment Ministry of Economic Development welcomes business proposals about ETS, but is not intended to limit GHG emissions itself at the moment Big Russian business is considering ETS as an interesting tool for capitalizing its potential in emission reduction Big Russian business is considering ETS as an interesting tool for capitalizing its potential in emission reduction

6. Strategic document – Concept for long-term socio-economic development Adopted by government in Oct. 2008 Adopted by government in Oct. 2008 General goals are: General goals are: To reach the world leading country level of social and economic development with attractive way of living. To reach the world leading country level of social and economic development with attractive way of living. To be among 5 leading countries by GDP in the world To be among 5 leading countries by GDP in the world Environmental quality is one of the priorities for strategic policy making Environmental quality is one of the priorities for strategic policy making

7. Policy indicators, related to carbon emission regulation 1. Reduction of impacts on the environment BAT, modern recycling, use of alternative energy, stimulation of GHG emission reduction, 3-7 times lower pollution-intensity by industries BAT, modern recycling, use of alternative energy, stimulation of GHG emission reduction, 3-7 times lower pollution-intensity by industries 2. Environmental safety and comfort 5-fold less cities with high/very high pollution, 4-fold less population living in poor environment, etc. 5-fold less cities with high/very high pollution, 4-fold less population living in poor environment, etc. 3. Environmental business Emission markets, certificates for renewable energy, energy efficiency, 5-fold increase of env.goods and services sector Emission markets, certificates for renewable energy, energy efficiency, 5-fold increase of env.goods and services sector 4. Protection of natural environment (adaptation?) Other indicators: Other indicators: 2-2,5 times less env. impacts by 2020 2-2,5 times less env. impacts by 2020 env. costs may rise up to 1-1,5% of GDP by 2020 env. costs may rise up to 1-1,5% of GDP by 2020 -30-50% of GHG emissions by 2050 -30-50% of GHG emissions by 2050 40-45% less energy intensity of GDP by 2020 40-45% less energy intensity of GDP by 2020

8. Thanks for your attention! Dr. George V. Safonov Director, Center for Environmental Economics, State University – Higher School of Economics gsafonov@mail.ru Tel. +7 903 7791161