1. Modeling the effects of conservation strategies on human health in Africa Alicia Ellis Sam Meyers Chris Golden Taylor Ricketts

2. Introduction Environmental Change Change in Health Human Activities Increased mosquito habitat Increased Malaria Deforestation Increased Agriculture Decreased Nutritional Disease 1.Multiple effects 2.Human Behavior? 3.Feedbacks & Dynamics? What is the best conservation strategy?

3.  Develop a dynamic simulation model to “predict” effects of policy on human behavior, environmental change and human health. Purpose Policy Human Behavior Environmental Change Health

4. Bushmeat Hunting

5.  How do we maximize the protection of wildlife AND human health?  What are the effects of different policies on hunting behavior, wildlife population dynamics, and nutrient related diseases?  Fines & Increased regulation  Livestock distribution  Trophy hunting Questions

6. The Model - Overview Policy Human Behavior Environmental Change Health Policy Hunting Behavior/O fftake Wildlife Population Dynamics Health Economic Submodel Biological Submodel Health Submodel

7. The Economic Submodel Budget Constraint Supply = Demand Income = Consumption/Costs I.agriculture + I.sell.bushmeat = C.commodities+ C.hunting+ Cons.bushmeat Optimization to Maximize Utility U ~ f (Commodities + Offtake Consumed) Utility

8. The Economic Submodel  Labor  Species population density Group Size  Labor  Species population density  Day range  Snare density Offtake  Fines, etc.

9. The Biological Submodel Discrete Time Logistic Growth Species Population Density Begin with initial population density Calculate offtake Grow species populations Subtract offtake Calculate new offtake with new population density Repeat

10. Economic & Biological Models Guns Snares Agriculture

11. Policy Hunting Behavior/O fftake Wildlife Population Dynamics Health Economic Submodel Biological Submodel Health Submodel The Model - Overview

12.  Bushmeat = Nutrients ( protein, iron, zinc)  Goals:  Test effect of policies (current and potential) on health  Determine the change in nutrient-related disease that could result from policies that affect bushmeat consumption The Health Submodel

13. Diet Surveys (by individual) Calculate Total Avg. Nutrient Intake (= mean intake for population) Proportion Exposed Avg. Amount of each Food Consumed (by population) The Health Submodel RDI Mean Iron Intake Frequency Disability Adjusted Life Years(DALYs): a measure of overall disease burden, expressed as the number of years lost due to ill-health or early death. DALY P exposed Relative Risk Mortality Incidence Disability weight factor Duration of disability Run Model New Avg. Amount Bushmeat Consumed

14. Diet Surveys (by individual) Calculate Total Avg. Nutrient Intake (= mean intake for population) Proportion Exposed Avg. Amount of each Food Consumed (by population) The Health Submodel RDI Mean Iron Intake Frequency Disability Adjusted Life Years(DALYs): a measure of overall disease burden, expressed as the number of years lost due to ill-health or early death. DALY P exposed Relative Risk Mortality Incidence Disability weight factor Duration of disability Run Model New Avg. Amount Bushmeat Consumed

15. Policy Hunting Behavior/Off take Wildlife Population Dynamics Health Economic Submodel Biological Submodel Health Submodel Policy  What policies will drive these interactions to maximize benefits to wildlife & health?  Fines for illegal species  Regulation (probability of detecting)  Payment for ecosystem services  Livestock  Trophy hunting

16. A Framework Disease Burden Hunting Rate Species Abundance Hunting Rate Fine Health Response Function Environmental Response Function Behavioral Response Function Policy Human Behavior Environmental Change Health Policy Hunting Behavior/Off take Wildlife Population Dynamics Health Economic Submodel Biological Submodel Health Submodel

17. A Framework Disease Burden [Particulate] Area Burnt Fine Health Response Function Environmental Response Function Behavioral Response Function Policy Human Behavior Environmental Change Health Policy Burning [Particulate] Health Economic Submodel Biological Submodel Health Submodel

18.   David Wilkie, Wildlife Conservation Society Acknowledgements

19.  Different species growth functions  More complex function for how income used  More complex policies  Include variation in demographic/economic factors within the human population Model Extensions

20.  beeta=0.8  pq=10000  pf=10000  F=20  L=12600  theta=0.6  psale=0.6  mu=psale*(1-theta)  alphah=0.15  Cg=6240  Cs=2820  A= 100  D=0.0001  greekp=0.43  K=100000  b1=0.38  p1=16654  v1 = 0.28  N1=6000  g1=1  delta1=1  b2=0.4  p2=2797  v2 = 0.31  N2=10000  g2=1  delta2=1 List of Parameters