1. FISTERA http://fistera.jrc.es/ Experiences from FISTERA “Foresight on IST in the European Research Area ” FISTERA/IT Star Meeting Prague, October 22, 2004 C. Pascu, R. Compañó, JC. Burgelman Institute for Prospective Tecnological Studies, Sevilla (IPTS) Joint Research Centre (www.jrc.cec.eu.int) Foresight as a tool for developing common EU strategies (in IST)

2. Setting the scene What´s the point? The Context FISTERA Methodology and approach Future: Looking beyond ICT

3. The Context EU Lisbon Strategy - The shift to the knowledge based society ( “The Union has today set itself a new strategic goal for the next decade: to become the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world capable of sustainable economic growth with more and better jobs and greater social cohesion”- European Council – Lisbon, March 2000 ) and eEurope Action Plans In this context, ICTs have a central role to play:  Critical enabler of productivity growth and innovation  Important industry per se  Systemic technology (affects/enables social and institutional changes)

4. WHY FISTERA Contribute to building of an European Research Area in IST research Contribute to the open method of coordination by finding common grounds (vision, priorities). Bring in societal concerns and societal vision into a hard core technical area (technological)

5. AIMS (1) Bring together (systematic and extensive), actors and insights in national FS exercises on IST in order to provide input to the European Research Programme (FP7 IST) Develop the common vision and approach to the IS in an enlarged Europe in 2010 and beyond. Involve as much as possible key IST policy makers and players in the EU and at the national level. Create a European forum for discussion  Use foresight to get there

6. FISTERA Mission: Strengthening a network of researchers and institutions that fosters understanding key factors that will enable Europe to become one of the leading players in crucial ICT areas What’s the point:  What are Europe’s strengths and weaknesses with respect to ICT as compared to global competitors?  What are the opportunities, threats and challenges for Europe?  What should be done to improve Europe’s position? AIMS (2)

7. WHO’s WHO? A Thematic Network for prospective activities on Information Society Technologies under the European Research Programme (FP5) Started in 2002 - Duration of 3 years 17 Members Coordinated by IPTS, part of the European Commission’s DG Joint Research Centre

8. FISTERA METHODOLOGY Making use of FORESIGHT ¨TOOLBOX¨: – Traditional (e.g. Foresight studies), – “Adapted” (e.g online Delphi ) – New (e.g. “Technology Trajectories” concept) Foresight tools For assessing upcoming technological, social, economic and political issues

9. Factors Strengths and Weaknesses Opportunities, Threats & Challenges technological- related Bibliometric analysis of patents and publications; funding Analysis of trajectories and Disruptions. Economic & political Information from national foresight studies, literature Online Delphi, workshops with politicians & economists socio-related literature search online-delphi Scenario building exercises workshops online-delphi S&T-based competitiveness. including human factors Literature search, interviews, workshops; Online-Delphi Scenario building exercises, workshops TODAYTOMORROW

10. Factors Strengths and WeaknessesOpportunities, Threats and Challenges technological- related Bibliometric analysis of patents and publications; funding Analysis of trajectories and Disruptions. Economic & political Information from national foresight studies, literature Online Delphi, workshops with politicians and economists socio-related literature search online-delphi Scenario building exercises workshops online-delphi S&T-based competitiveness, (incl human factors) Literature search, interviews, workshops; Online-Delphi Scenario building exercises, workshops Example

11. Reviewing national foresight visions and SWOT  Analyzed FS from 8 EU Member States (Austria, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Hungary, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom)  Aim: Understanding commonalities and differences in the visions on IST  Next phase : 3 post- bubble and post 9/11 on security, convergence and the “new economy”

12. FINDINGS national FS  Different granularities from technology point of view  National visions in line with Lisbon objectives  EU not a central dimension (mainly present as part of the national SWOT analysis)  Visions in FS are often need oriented (areas of ‘ ’public interest ``)  IST’s are tools to reach social, eco etc. objectives, not and end in itself

13. Important points from national FS  Forecasted Technologies are mainly extrapolations of what exists already.  Hype of the day as key trend for tomorrow (difficult to avoid “Zeitgeist” problem, i.e.¨being prisoner of spirit of the times¨ or ¨believing that what is ``hot`` today will remain so in the future¨)- e.g. -e-commerce (2000), security (now)  National FS do not cover the whole chain from technology assessment to societal impact  Parochial nature of FS (ignore happenings in other European countries) - The need for Europe-wide SWOT analysis and assessment of the relative position of each country and Europe´s at a global scale  Limited value for an EU approach (Sum of national FS # a European vision) - The need for a pan European permanent monitoring

14. Mapping national FS with Technology Trajectories Information visual display D, UK Communications AT,CZ,D,F,HU, ES,S,UK Bandwidth AT, D, HU, ES, SE, UK Human interfacing CZ, F, D, ES, S, UK Pin- pointing - Data capturing - Printing - Storage UK Processing AT, F, HU Info retrieval SE Indicator for consensus on promising ICT domains

15. Applications in the National FS Health AT,CZ,FR,DE,HU,SE,UK Transport AT,CZ,HU, SE,UK Entertainment CZ DE FR HU SE UK Learning AT DE HU SE UK Agriculture CZ HU Security CZ Government SE eCommerce ES SE UK Domotics AT Work AT HU SE UK IndividualsBusiness Public

16. FISTERA TECHNOLOGY TRAJECTORIES Concept  Overview of potential technology evolution, challenges laying ahead, and potential areas where research investment may be more productive, given the local situation  Investigating clusters of technologies for their functionalities (i.e. what they offer) and then determining applications offered in different environments ( e.g. at home)  Top-down analysis and Bottom-up analysis  Currently comprising 87 technologies  An "early detection system" - monitoring possible technology disruptions, highlighting technology areas to keep an eye on Online tool : 4-layer Model – state-of-the-art and perspectives for 2010 and 2020: Http://fistera.telecomitalialab.com

17. The FOUR LAYERS MODEL What is needed Where should research be focused? Showing tech. alternatives Evolution over time Whose business is it? Where the research investment would be more effective? Related to Information Society Basic vs Aggregate Technology Is there value in investing? What is the social implication? What are the concerns? Is life quality improving? Who is benefiting?

18. 4-LAYER MODEL – INTERPLAY OF TECHNOLOGIES The FOUR LAYERS Source: http://fistera.telecomitalialab.com

19. Technologies in the National FS Information visual display D, UK Communications AT,CZ,D,F,HU, ES,S,UK Bandwidth AT, D, HU, ES, SE, UK Human interfacing CZ, F, D, ES, S, UK Pin- pointing - Data capturing - Printing - Storage UK Processing AT, F, HU Info retrieval SE

20. FISTERA: Key factors ECONOMIC AL SOCIAL TECHNO LOGICAL POLITICAL - Ageing & eHealth - Cultural Pluralism - Community learning - Ethics - Digital Divide …. -Mobility - evolution of trade & economic affairs - Governmental efficiency - Security - Miniaturisation - systems integration - Reliability & robustness - content ownership vs free availability …

21. Spreading the word  Cross-European debate for building an European Research Area  Face-to-face vs Virtual approach National ¨Roadshow¨ workshops (research community from FISTERA Member´countries) ¨Targeted¨ meetings : Commission’s staff, R&D Nat Directors, Politicians (European Parliament’s EPTA),Industry Thematic meetings: Enlargement countries, Human Resources in IST, Trends, Challenge and Drivers Others: IST Days, DGINFSO meetings, ISTAG, academic & policy conferences, etc Email alert: 600 people Web: ~300.000 hits ¨Thematic” Online Delphis (e.g. IST Applications) Technology Trajectories: Online !!

22. Future Looking beyond ICT Technology trends and Visions towards KS Convergence with bio, nano, cogno technologies How Europe looks at iself ? Post-bubble, post-9/11 Foresights

23. All public available knowledge http://fistera.jrc.eshttp://fistera.jrc.es Use the site to comment and enrich debate Contact R. Compañó ramon.compano@cec.eu.int C. Pascu corina.pascu@cec.eu.int J.C. Burgelman jean-claude.burgelman@ cec.eu.int FISTERA and network effects