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©2007 ViTAL Economy, Inc. 1 Southern Illinois: Garden of the Gods Readiness Assessment Chapter 5: Southern Illinois Competitiveness January 7, 2008; revised February 17 CONNECT SI ViTAL Economy Alliance Frank Knott, Project Lead; Stan Halle, Senior Editor; Jim Haguewood, Rob Beynon, & Neil Gamroth, Principal Economic Researchers
©2007 ViTAL Economy, Inc. 2 Table of Contents EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW: the Big Picture & Importance of Change in SI EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW: the Big Picture & Importance of Change in SI READINESS ASSESSMENT (RA) READINESS ASSESSMENT (RA) 1. State, National & Global Trends 2. Indigenous Resources & Industry Asset Mapping 3. Enabling Environment 4. Climate of Innovation, Incubation & Entrepreneurship 5. Southern Illinois Competitiveness 6. Regional Perspectives 7. Roadmap to Success APPENDICES 5.01 Global Market Readiness 5.02 Workforce Availability and Quality 5.03 Knowledge Infrastructure: Assessment 5.04 Location Advantages 5.05 Implications & Recommendations
©2007 ViTAL Economy, Inc. 3 Chapter 5: Southern Illinois Competitiveness 5.01 Global Market Readiness ………………………… Workforce Availability and Quality ……………… Knowledge Infrastructure: Assessment ………… Location Advantages ……………………………… Implications & Recommendations ……………….. 32 Southern Illinois "Garden of the Gods" Chapter 1 of the RA presented global and national trends; Chapter 2, the assets that enable SI to compete and leverage these trends; Chapter 3, reviewed SIs enabling environment readiness to capture forecasted growth opportunities; Chapter 4, assessed the SI climate of innovation and entrepreneurship; Chapter 5, determines SIs readiness to compete on the national and global stage
©2007 ViTAL Economy, Inc. 4 The Pyramid of Competitiveness Source: National Competitiveness Council, Annual Report 2006 The NCC defines competitiveness as those factors that impact the ability of SI firms to compete in international markets & provide SI citizens with the opportunity to improve their quality of life 5.0 Competitiveness: Introduction Sustainable Growth
©2007 ViTAL Economy, Inc. 5 Illinois Competitiveness Rankings In Relationship to 50 U.S. States Beacon Hill Institute 2006 State Competitiveness Report ……33 rd Milken Institute 2007 Cost of Doing Business Index ………….18 th Tax Foundation 2008 State Business Tax Climate Index ……28 th Morgan Quinto Press 2006 Most Livable State Index ………..28 th Sources: ViTAL Economy Research and Individual Research Reports as listed above Economic OutlookStateEconomic Performance 42Illinois48 1Utah20 10Texas American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) Laffer State Economic Competitiveness Rankings (Beacon Hill, Tax Foundation, Morgan Quinto Press and ALEC ranks best to worst Milken Institute ranks worst to best 1-50) 5.0 Competitiveness: Introduction
©2007 ViTAL Economy, Inc. 6 Chapter 5: Southern Illinois Competitiveness 5.01 Global Market Readiness Southern Illinois "Garden of the Gods" The global marketplace is growing four times faster than the SI economy. Emerging and developing countries around the world desire U.S. products and services to support their improving quality of life. SI should leverage Illinois global trade-experience to expand SI import and exports by $1billion/year. It is the 4 th quarter in SI and time to get in the game!
©2007 ViTAL Economy, Inc. 7 The Opportunity on the Global Stage Source: State of Working Illinois, by Northern Illinois University (Nov 2005); 21st Century Workforce (May 2004); IMF Average Annual Growth Rate % 3.14% 2.19% 1.34% 5.62% The World economy is growing at four-times the rate of SI AAGR = Average Annual Growth Rate Accessing the Global Economy is the Key to SI Economic Growth 5.01 Global Market Readiness
©2007 ViTAL Economy, Inc. 8 Illinois Participation in U.S. Global Trade Top five export nations for Illinois: m Canada m Mexico m U.K. m Japan m Australia Illinois % Share of U.S. Trade Top Foreign Export Markets for Illinois (2006 $ million) Source: Foreign Trade Division, U.S. Census Bureau, 10/07 U.S. Top Five Total Trade Partners 1.Canada – 18.2% 2.China – 12.4% 3.Mexico – 11.2% 4.Japan – 6.7% 5.Germany – 4.6 % Top five export nations for the U.S.: m Canada m Mexico m Japan m China m UK Largest and fastest growing country market in the world is not in Illinois top five export markets! 5.01 Global Market Readiness
©2007 ViTAL Economy, Inc. 9 SI Represents Less Than 1% of Illinois Global Trade Illinois Export ProductsValue% Machinery Manufactures$11.7B27.8% Computers & Electronics$5.4B12.8% Transportation Equipment$4.7B11.1% Electronic Eq., Appliances & Parts$2.8B6.6% Processed Foods$1.9B4.5% Fabricated Metal Products$1.6B3.8% Misc. Manufactures$1.5B3.5% Plastic/Rubber Products$1.0B2.3% Crop Productions$710M1.7% Printing & Related Products$424M1.0% Oil/Gas Extraction$296M.69% Petroleum/Coal Products$110M.26% Wood Products$71M.17% Beverage/Tobacco Products$50M.12% Mining$38M.09% Animal Production$22M.05% Fishing, Hunting, Trapping$2M.00% Illinois Export Facts Total value Illinois exports 2006 = $42.08 billion o29.2% went north to Canada ($12.3B) o8.8% went south to Mexico ($3.7B) Source: Office of Trade & Industry Information, Manufacturing and Services International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce Southern Illinois Export Analysis GSP**Export Value % of GSP Illinois$560 billion$42.08 billion7.5% SI$17.6 billion$420 million2.4% SI as a % 3.47% of IL GSP 1% of State exports SI exports as a % of GSP are less than 1/3 of Illinois = $1 billion gap/year 5.01 Global Market Readiness **GSP = Gross State Product (similar to GDP)
©2007 ViTAL Economy, Inc. 10 SI Global Market Doors are Open Illinois ranks #5 in U.S. global trading in 2006 m Illinois exports have grown by 64% from m 70% of all U.S. trade goes through the State of Illinois m Direct export values were 7.5% of Illinois GSP in 2006 m Exports support 448,400 jobs in Illinois, approx. 7.5% of the workforce m In addition to top U.S. trade partners (slide 8), the fastest growing export markets are: Argentina, Turkey, Chile, Switzerland, and Taiwan SIUE International Trade Center serving 45 Southern Illinois Counties International Trade Missions, Annual Export Conferences International Market Analysis, Identification of Foreign Buyers Export Finance Assistance SIUE International Trade Center serving 45 Southern Illinois Counties International Trade Missions, Annual Export Conferences International Market Analysis, Identification of Foreign Buyers Export Finance Assistance Source: DCEO Office of Trade and Investment, Southern Illinoisan, October 2007, SIUE International Trade Center Global Market Initiatives & Resources Available to SI: 5.01 Global Market Readiness
©2007 ViTAL Economy, Inc. 11 Chapter 5: Southern Illinois Competitiveness 5.02 Workforce Availability and Quality Southern Illinois "Garden of the Gods" In a World is Flat Economy, a regions success is no longer measured on where you compete, but rather how you compete. Highly skilled and educated human resources will be the key to economic prosperity for the foreseeable future.
©2007 ViTAL Economy, Inc. 12 The Global Workforce Bind The quantity and quality of SIs workforce are the most important and immediate factors impacting economic growth, particularly given the shift from agriculture and manufacturing to knowledge based economy (ref: Section 1.04) Demographic developments are leading to fewer people in the prime workforce age group Flattening and declining birthrates around the world are reducing workforce supply Job opportunities for low skilled workers are declining everywhere Expanding economic development worldwide is demanding more products and services Technology progress is demanding an increase in quality and quantity of workforce Global competition is increasingly generating greater demands for quality workers Source: Confronting the Coming Talent Crunch; What is Next? Global Manpower Report 5.02 Workforce Availability & Quality The Connect SI initiative will exacerbate these shortfalls and must be addressed
©2007 ViTAL Economy, Inc Population Employed Participation Rate Illinois8,207,7646,230,61776% SE Region32,16122,25269% GE Region164,134108,26766%* GW Region31,98022,72171% S5 Region35,88722, %* SI Region264,162175, % Labor force participation rate: age population/total employed Source: 2000 U.S. Census; ** Adjusted, not including prison populations SI: more than 10% below Illinois in labor force participation rate Low Labor Participation Rates Challenge SI Workforce Availability National Average 69.6% 10% = 24,995 individuals that are available to be in the workforce, but for one reason or another, they are not employed or seeking employment 5.02 Workforce Availability & Quality Quantity Gap
©2007 ViTAL Economy, Inc. 14 SI Same Trend GrowthSI Working Age Population GrowthPotential Shortfall 13,758-1,85515,613 Connect SI Job GoalsCOI Est. Increase in Labor Force by 2012Potential Workforce Shortfall 43,298 24,248 (70.9% participation of 34,198 COI population projection) 19,050 TOTAL Potential Workforce Shortage:34,663 Franklin, Jackson, Jefferson, Perry, Williamson Projected Worker Shortage 2010 Source: 21 st Century Workforce: Southern Illinois, May Workforce Availability & Quality Connect SI Strategy Magnifies the Possible Worker Shortage in SI Quantity Gap
©2007 ViTAL Economy, Inc. 15 SIs Talent Supply/Demand Disconnect Is Worse Than Global Disconnect 5.02 Workforce Availability & Quality Quantity& Quality Gap Source: Confronting the Coming Global Talent Crunch, Whats Next? Manpower 2006 Number of people of available/required by skill level $/hour & skills Lack of resources creates tension on the high-skills market Over-supply of low-skills resources creates unemployment Supply of workers Demand for workers Developed Economies Global Labor Market Men Women Pronounced over- supply of low-skilled labor Southern Illinois Labor Market SI opportunity to create a more highly skilled Workforce Getting both the right supply and right skills is essential
©2007 ViTAL Economy, Inc. 16 The share of occupations that only require OJT is smaller in Southern Illinois than in the U.S. Tomorrows occupations will require much more education and training than yesterdays occupations Southern Illinois Comparison to the U.S. % of tomorrows occupations requiring at least a bachelors degree in Southern Illinois is higher that the U.S. Southern Illinois United States 32%28% Southern Illinois United States 74%94% Implication: the quality of the SI workforce in the future needed to fill forecast jobs is higher than the U.S. Implication: occupations in SI that only require OJT are declining; thus the need for increased emphasis on training and retraining of incumbent workers in the region as more get displaced Source: 21 st Century Workforce: Southern Illinois, May 2004 SI Future Economy Will Require Higher Skilled Workers 5.02 Workforce Availability & Quality Quality Gap
©2007 ViTAL Economy, Inc. 17 Job Training Projections for SI Source: The State of Working Illinois, % of the new job growth requires postsecondary vocational training or higher level of education SI Workforce Training Scenario 5.02 Workforce Availability & Quality SI Jobs Projection: = 43,298 44% requiring postsecondary or higher education = 19,051 SI Jobs Projection: = 43,298 44% requiring postsecondary or higher education = 19,051 Quality Gap
©2007 ViTAL Economy, Inc. 18 Chapter 5: Southern Illinois Competitiveness 5.03 Knowledge Infrastructure: Assessment Southern Illinois "Garden of the Gods" Knowledge infrastructure is comprised of public and private organizations and institutions whose role is the production, maintenance, distribution, application and protection of knowledge. This infrastructure is critical to building and sustaining a viable innovation economy.
©2007 ViTAL Economy, Inc. 19 Knowledge Infrastructure: Roles Regional knowledge infrastructures have three primary roles in building a robust and growing knowledge economy 1.Creating Knowledge Education and skills programs that build, retain and/or acquire skills R&D programs that support innovation through investment 2.Sharing Knowledge Build critical mass and linkages programs which increase collaboration Strengthen information & communication networks expand ICT systems 3.Using Knowledge Commercialization processes improve prospects for commercialization Develop clusters programs to strengthen existing and build emerging clusters Attract & secure Investments programs to increase investment capital for R&D Develop intl linkages programs to facilitate international R&D linkages Source: The Role of Knowledge Infrastructure in Regional Economic Development, Canadian Journal of Regional Science 2005 and Western Australian Technology & Industry Advisory Council, Knowledge Infrastructure: Assessment
©2007 ViTAL Economy, Inc. 20 SI Knowledge Infrastructure Assets Are Plentiful SIUCs Four R&D Pillars m Energy & Environment m Biotechnology m Materials Technology m Neuroscience Small Business Development Centers m Rend Lake College m Shawnee College m Southeastern Illinois College m John A. Logan College m SIUC and SIUE m Illinois Eastern Colleges SI Business Incubators m SIUC Business Incubator m West Frankfort Business Incubator m DRA Mounds Incubator Many Entrepreneurs & Innovators across SI Illinois Entrepreneurship Network Southern Illinois Entrepreneurship Center Illinois Small Business Development Ctr Illinois Manufacturing Extension Center Southern Tech Illinois Procurement Technical Asst Ctrs Technology Enterprise Centers International Trade Centers Camp CEO Programs Challenge Grant Program m SIU Transportation Education Center SIU 20+ Research Centers m Dixon Springs Agriculture Research Ctr m Illinois Clean Coal Institute m National Corn-to-Ethanol Research Ctr m SIU Business Research Parks m SIUC Coal Research Center m SIU School of Medicine Source: ViTAL Economy Research 5.03 Knowledge Infrastructure: Assessment
©2007 ViTAL Economy, Inc. 21 Education Attainment is the Foundation for a Strong Workforce SI trails Illinois in % high school completion SIs workforce with advanced degrees is less than half that of Illinois This low level of educational attainment is a major challenge to compete in a global economy Population with High School or Higher in SI Regions and IL Population with Bachelor Degree or Higher in SI Regions and IL Source: ViTAL Economy Research SIs creating knowledge infrastructure is in place, but results are not satisfactory Only 12% of SI population has a bachelors degree or higher when SI job-growth trends require 32% with bachelor or higher degrees! SIs creating knowledge infrastructure is in place, but results are not satisfactory Only 12% of SI population has a bachelors degree or higher when SI job-growth trends require 32% with bachelor or higher degrees! 5.03 Knowledge Infrastructure: Assessment
©2007 ViTAL Economy, Inc. 22 Current Programs Limit Growth 5.03 Knowledge Infrastructure: Assessment Source: Adapted from Lalkaka, R. (1996) Business Development Process Idea/Need Business Creation Employment Supportive National Policies University- Community Linkage Internet Technical Assistance International Business Linkages Initial Government Funding Technical Infrastructure Market Opportunities SI Linkages to National and International Support Resources Entrepreneurial Selection & Graduation Rigorous Business Strategy Development Local Consultants Manager Training Tenant Finance Champion Sponsors Board Professional Services Network SI Support Linkages for Entrepreneurship GROWTHGROWTH ? Limited Growth
©2007 ViTAL Economy, Inc. 23 SI Utilization of Knowledge Needs Improvement Technology Transfer Assessment CriteriaRating A strong and focused research base feeds the pipeline for commercialization Federal R&D funding provides a critical base for technology transfer and commercialization efforts Champions catalyze most successful R&D-based economic development The entrepreneurial culture of a region is key to its technology transfer success Networking is an integral part of the culture Early-stage capital is a critical ingredient in launching regional start-ups Innovation centers provide a focal point for technology-based activities Incubators and research parks are important in areas not known for technology Private corporations and foundations play a major role Focused long-term vision, investment, leadership and commitment are in place = Weak to None = Improving = Average = Good = Strong 5.03 Knowledge Infrastructure: Assessment
©2007 ViTAL Economy, Inc. 24 SI Knowledge Infrastructure Assessment Readiness CriteriaRatingAssessment Rationale Knowledge Infrastructure - SI presence of knowledge assets K-infinity educational infrastructure assets are robust Significant R&D centers of excellence are available Create Knowledge - build, retain and/or acquiring skills Knowledge is not being created at level required for workforce Create Knowledge - via R&D programs that support innovation R&D program investments are not promoting innovation Sharing Knowledge - via programs that increase collaboration Inadequate linkage of knowledge sharing resources Using Knowledge - improve prospects for commercialization Commercialization processes are very weak Using Knowledge - develop emerging and existing clusters Cluster development is currently non-existent Using Knowledge - increase investment capital for R&D Investment capital has been very limited in region Using Knowledge - facilitate international R&D linkages International linkages have potential, but are not being leveraged 5.03 Knowledge Infrastructure: Assessment
©2007 ViTAL Economy, Inc. 25 Country# # India346Malaysia14 China160Pakistan14 Japan141Turkey13 South Korea96Bangladesh12 Taiwan71Jordan12 Thailand27Nigeria12 Cyprus24Brazil11 Canada23France11 Nepal16Kenya11 Saudi Arabia15Columbia10 Germany14Morocco10 SIUC Student Country of Origin (2006) 21,003 total students 1,149 from 110 countries 5.5% of student body National average 3.9% SIUC Student Country of Origin (2006) 21,003 total students 1,149 from 110 countries 5.5% of student body National average 3.9% SIUC Top 20 Student Country of Origin Other Than U.S. Source: SIUC SIUC Asset: Foreign Students SIUC top three foreign students country of origin are in the top five Illinois trading partners SIUC top three foreign students country of origin are in the top five Illinois trading partners 5.03 Knowledge Infrastructure: Assessment
©2007 ViTAL Economy, Inc. 26 Chapter 5: Southern Illinois Competitiveness 5.04 Location Advantages Southern Illinois "Garden of the Gods" Location, location, location is a historic axiom of economic development. Every community possesses distinct geographic, natural and proximity advantages. This Section will briefly review the location of advantages, which SI should leverage in relationship to trends, opportunities and assets described in Chapters 1-4.
©2007 ViTAL Economy, Inc. 27 SI Location Advantages: Intro Southern Illinois: m Heartland location equidistant to 2/3 of U.S. markets m Central to economic expansion of the Americas m Positioned to be an easily accessible workforce development center for addressing 10 million worker global talent shortage m Well positioned geographically and asset-rich to attract affluent seniors 77 million baby boomers retiring m Within a four hour drive time of 11+ million regional tourists m Now the center of a rail network stretching to the Atlantic, Pacific and Gulf of Mexico from regional to all of North America m Within a days drive to many of the fifty fastest growing U.S. cities m Access to major rivers and recreational lakes 5.04 Location Advantages SI sits on the ultimate U.S. logistics sweet-spot, the intersection of major N-S and E-W trade routes SI sits on the ultimate U.S. logistics sweet-spot, the intersection of major N-S and E-W trade routes
©2007 ViTAL Economy, Inc. 28 SI Competitive Advantage: Location (1 of 2) Most vacations are now short proximity and ease of access are key Major nearby hubs include: m Indianapolis, IN m St. Louis, MO m Memphis, TN m Louisville, KY m Nashville, TN SI has airport assets that facilitate Southern Illinois becoming a tourism destination = Potential Gateway to Southern Illinois Source: Map Point and Federal Aviation Administration How will SI leverage this competitive advantage? 5.04 Location Advantages Grey Area Shows 4-hour driving time from Marion Population within 4-hour drive: 11,303,789 Marion
©2007 ViTAL Economy, Inc % U.S. population growth in 2006 California, Texas, Florida contained most of the fastest growing centers in the U.S. Several centers within a days drive of SI are included in 50 fastest- growing centers for at growth rates of 12% to 98% (see Red Stars) Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Map Point Note: Map shows calculated 8 hour driving time from SI SI Competitive Advantage: Location (2 of 2) SI Relationship to Nearby 50 Fastest Growing U.S. Cities 5.04 Location Advantages How will SI leverage this competitive advantage?
©2007 ViTAL Economy, Inc. 30 SIs Temperate Climate is an SI Competitive Advantage Greater Egypt: m Avg winter temp 32°F m Avg summer temp 76°F Greater Wabash: m Avg winter temp 35°F m Avg summer temp 82°F Southeastern: m Avg winter temp 32°F m Avg summer temp 75°F Southern Five: m Avg winter temp 35°F m Avg summer temp 78°F Source: USDA Zone Average Annual Minimum Temperate Zone 4a-25 to -30 Zone 4b-20 to -25 Zone 5a-15 to -20 Zone 5b-10 to -15 Zone 6a-5 to -10 Zone 6b0 to -5 Zone 7a5 to 0 Zone 7b10 to Location Advantages How will SI leverage this competitive advantage? SI has both an attractive climate for retirees & long-growing season SI has both an attractive climate for retirees & long-growing season
©2007 ViTAL Economy, Inc. 31 Average Annual Precipitation Greater Egypt: m Avg rainfall = 42 inches m Avg snowfall = 12 inches Greater Wabash: m Avg rainfall = 28 inches m Avg snowfall = 9 inches Southeastern: m Avg rainfall = 42 inches m Avg snowfall = 13 inches Southern Five: m Avg rainfall = 45 inches m Avg snowfall = 11 inches Source: DCEO 5.04 Location Advantages How will SI leverage this competitive advantage?
©2007 ViTAL Economy, Inc. 32 Chapter 5: Southern Illinois Competitiveness 5.05 Implications & Recommendations Southern Illinois "Garden of the Gods"
©2007 ViTAL Economy, Inc. 33 SI Competitiveness: VE Assessment Global Market Readiness Climate for Investment Attraction Workforce Knowledge Infrastructure Sharing and Utilization of Knowledge Assets Location Advantages Connectivity Literacy (see Chp 3, Slides 34-48) WEAK IMPROVING GOOD AVERAGE STRONG The lack of Global Market Readiness is holding back the Region from leveraging its Knowledge Infrastructure and Location Advantages to build a high growth economy 5.05 Implications & Recommendations
©2007 ViTAL Economy, Inc. 34 SI Competitiveness: Implications Limited Global Market Participation m $1 billion export gap: 2.4% of SI GRP vs. 8.4% of the Illinois GSP participates in the global economy m Global market niches exist in energy technologies, bio-ag, international innovation & incubation, logistics, etc. m State level international trade expertise needs to be better leveraged Solid and Improving Workforce m SIs 66.5% labor participation rate challenges the Regions growth opportunities m The incumbent workforce has a strong work ethic and desire to stay in SI m SIs workforce development assets are positioned to help address the projected U.S.10 million worker shortfall Robust Knowledge Infrastructure m SI has a broad array of knowledge assets, but needs to better align towards a common strategic direction m Education Center of Excellence could coalesce regional KBE resources to pursue global workforce opportunity Strong Location Advantages m SI is in a geographic Sweet Spot to take advantage of major trends m SIs location advantage benefits Tourism, Energy, and Transportation, Logistics & Warehousing sectors Improving Connectivity Literacy m SI has begun to transform its connectivity infrastructure, but has low connectivity awareness and literacy m Link NP-COI with all industry clusters to identify applications that increase competitiveness and market-share Only a Unified Region can leverage SIs potential critical mass in becoming a formidable force on the Global Stage Only a Unified Region can leverage SIs potential critical mass in becoming a formidable force on the Global Stage GRP = Gross Regional Product; GSP = Gross State Product 5.05 Implications & Recommendations
©2007 ViTAL Economy, Inc. 35 SI Competitiveness: Recommendations Focus on economic growth opportunities that leverage its regional strengths and de-emphasize state weaknesses as shown by Illinois poor rankings in multiple competitiveness reports Develop a specific global export strategy that focuses on closing the $1 billion trade gap versus Illinois trade levels Develop education center of excellence connecting knowledge infrastructure assets to enable SI to address part of the ten million global worker talent crunch Develop an industry-led transportation, logistics & distribution industry cluster to leverage SI location advantages Develop an industry-led tourism cluster that will connect SI tourism assets to take advantage of SIs unique market location Implement regional marketing strategies to improve connectivity literacy 5.05 Implications & Recommendations
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