Presentation on theme: "1 European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation GENSPACE Air Traffic Management Philippe DEBELS CEATS Research Development and Simulation centre,"— Presentation transcript:
1 European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation GENSPACE Air Traffic Management Philippe DEBELS CEATS Research Development and Simulation centre, Budapest
2 ATM : Overview Today The Air Transport System Analysis - Performance Tomorrow Forecast Strategy Documents
3 ATM Today Air Transport System – Actors Main actors Airspace users – The Airlines Airports Air Navigation Service Providers
4 ATM Today Air Transport – Airlines Europe commercial aircraft Average flight 750 km Average flight duration 1h flights per day flights per year flight hours per year Load factor (fill rate) 65 % 1 B pax per year (100 pax/flight) employees Total revenue 100 B/year
5 ATM Today Air Transport – Airports Europe airports in 36 countries 766 recognised by IATA movements/year employees Revenue Aeronautical 11 B/year Non-aeronautical 11 B/year
6 ATM Today Air Transport – Air Navigation - Europe ICAO: The contracting States recognize that every State has complete and exclusive sovereignty over the airspace above its territory.
7 ATM Today Air Transport – Air Navigation - Europe Shanwick OAC EUROCONTROL: 37 Member States 37 Service Providers (ANSP) 68 Area Control Centres (ACC) 600 Sectors at full capacity 417 Towers 199 Approach units Air Traffic Controllers Support staff Employees Total revenue 7.5 B/year
8 REMEMBER Main figures – Eurocontrol 37 Countries flight per day Average 750 km or 1h Air Traffic Controllers (total staff) 600 sectors Air Transport European Region : 120 billion /year ATM cost Europe : 7.5 billion /year ATM Today: the System Summary
9 ATM Today The System – Analysis Analysis Fragmentation Heterogeneity Complexity
10 ATM Today The System – Fragmentation Actors Fragmentation – All actors concerned Airspace: size, military TSA, … ANSPs: civil/military; size; units (ACCs, APPs). ATM systems, interfaces, CNS infrastructure. Process: procurement, development, … Cost estimate fragmentation: 1 B /year
11 ATM Today The System - Heterogeneity Heterogeneity –Productivity: Flight h / ATCO h: 0.13 to 1.53, <> 0.65 –Institutional arrangement: Gvt department, State enterprise, Gvt owned company, Limited liability company –Safety: Heterogeneous implementation of regulations –Costs: –Cost controlled flight h: 185 to 650/h, <> 453/h –Cost of ATCO: 3 to 135/h, <> 69 /h 0.6 B /year Bring last in class to average
12 ATM Today The System - Complexity Non-linear relation between traffic and delays ! Complexity not uniform
14 ATM Today: Performance Capacity and Delays 3-year capacity-traffic lag being squeezed 80% capacity growth minute average delay/flight by 2006 De-coupling delays and traffic growth Investments too much reactive ?
15 ATM Today: Performance Capacity and Delays En-route ATFM delays slightly increasing 1.4 min/flight in high traffic growth, Nearly at economic optimum delay target 1 min/flight Airport ATFM delays warrant special attention.
16 ATM Today: Performance Capacity and Delays Cost of delays Delay ? Definition ? Cost for whom ? Tactical; Reactionary; Strategic delays; Passengers ? Average 72 /min Crew 10 Maintenance 1 Pax compensation 24 Pax opportunity cost /min <1 /min 1 B /year
17 ATM Today: Performance Cost-effectiveness Until now, cost ~ traffic, unit cost and effectiveness stable. But … Available projections indicate that unit costs will decrease more or less in line with the cost-effectiveness target in the coming years.
18 ATM Today: Performance Flight efficiency Flight not direct. Cause: airspace structure, en-route congestion, route charge differentials. Marginal cost of schedule time: 19/min for an ATR42 131/min for a B average 6.4/NM 3.5/km (2004) Margin for improvement Military zone 1.5 B /year
19 ATM Today: Performance Safety Data ? Some progress … … incident reporting and transparency. Legal and cultural impediments ….. …. still exist 24 regulatory authorities & 19 ANSPs …. not meet acceptable maturity level 15 States: more incidents reported; High severity incidents constant ATM contribution: 2..6 %
20 ATM Today: Performance Summary REMEMBER ATM is performing well: Average delays at near economic optimum: 1.4 min/flight Unit costs stable : 0.80 /km Delay costs for airlines: 70 /minute But, still high margins for improvements: Safety level (implementation of regulations; reporting) Fragmentation: 1 B/year Delays (ATFM): 1 B / year Productivity: 0.6 B / year Flight Efficiency: 1.5 B / year
21 ATM Tomorrow: Forecast Challenge 1 - Traffic growth Growth of controlled air traffic: 4 % in 2006 Expected to continue at similar rates. Traffic growth varied greatly across control centres in 2006 (0% to +20%).
22 ATM Tomorrow: Forecast Challenge 1 - Traffic growth Some countries spectacular increases of 20% in 2006 Heterogeneity
23 ATM Tomorrow: Forecast Challenge 1 - Traffic growth A: strong economies and limited oil price growth B: business as usual C: increased environmental costs, larger aircraft, more limited trade, traffic liberalization D: world of tensions between regions and very high oil price
25 ATM Tomorrow: Forecast Challenge 2 - Safety What people perceive Accidents = Traffic x Accident Rate Public perceives Absolute Number of Accident, Not the Accident Rate ! Needs to be lowered drastically !
26 ATM Tomorrow: Forecast Challenge 2 - Safety At constant Safety Level Relation between accidents rate and traffic is QUADRATIC: absolute accident = constant traffic x 2 safety level x Traffic (million flights) Risk trendRisk target
27 Relation between accidents rate and traffic is quadratic: If absolute accident = constant IfTraffic x 2 Then safety level x 4 ATM Tomorrow: Forecast Challenge 2 - Safety 3 flights 3 potential conflicts 3 flights 3 potential conflicts 3 x 2 flights 3 x 2 2 = 12 potential conflicts
28 ATM Tomorrow Strategy Documents European Commission, Sep.2001 White Paper « European Transport Policy for 2010 » European Commissioner for Research, Jan.2001 Group of Aeronautics Personalities A vision for 2020 Advisory Council for Aeronautics Research in Europe (ACARE) Strategic Research Agenda: SRA-1 and SRA-2 Single European Sky and SESAR
29 ATM Tomorrow Strategy Documents Challenges for 2020 Traffic: : 3 x more traffic Safety:Accident rate -80%; Safety: x 10 Environment: Emissions, Noise: - 50% … -80% Quality of service Time in airport maximum 15 min (short) and 30 min (long) 99% flight within 15 min of schedule, all weather conditions Security: Zero successful hijack ONE European airspace – SES European rules ! New Air Traffic Control Paradigm ?
30 ATM Tomorrow Summary REMEMBER Traffic increase 4.. 5% / year Traffic forecast for x Safety relation to trafficQUADRATIC Safety target10 x Quality target Time in airport min Punctuality99% flight within 15 min all weather conditions R&D budget200 M/year (3%)
31 ATM : Preparing for the future The future Solutions Role of the CRDS
32 DMEAN 8.33 ModeS LINK2000 ACAS CASCADE FASTI SESAR Predicted capacity Traffic Closing the capacity gap Safety - Security Airports 1 minute delay R&D Possible solutions : Route optimisation (cf. Flight efficiency) Additional sectors (physical limit) EUROCONTROL Potential solutions Support tools for controllers New technologies
33 A European ATM Master Plan To Unlock Air Transport SESAR Support Single European Sky technical/operational implementation 3 Phases: Definition of European ATM Master Plan ( early 2008) Development ( ) Deployment ( ) SESAR Support Single European Sky technical/operational implementation 3 Phases: Definition of European ATM Master Plan ( early 2008) Development ( ) Deployment ( ) Converging Industry, EC & EUROCONTROL Needs: Turn off fragmented approach Accelerate ATM evolution in response to challenges Synchronise & integrate plans from research to operations Synchronise airborne and ground deployments Converging Industry, EC & EUROCONTROL Needs: Turn off fragmented approach Accelerate ATM evolution in response to challenges Synchronise & integrate plans from research to operations Synchronise airborne and ground deployments
34 Possible solutions : Route network optimisation Additional sectors Support tools for controllers New technologies But … Maximum benefit in large airspace Need to be further optimised Need to be tested and validated Task of CRDS Develop and improve the solutions (R&D) Test and validate the solutions (simulations) Disseminate the knowledge (training) EUROCONTROL Potential solutions FAB CEATS 3 Pillars for CRDS DMEAN 8.33 ModeS LINK2000 ACAS CASCADE FASTI Phase 2 SESAR Predicted capacity Traffic Closing the capacity gap Safety - Security Airports 1 minute delay Programme phases for capacity R&D Phase 1 Phase 3
35 Focal point ATM R&D Central Europe CRDS has limited resources for R&D ! CRDS has limited resources for R&D ! Develop own expertise (e.g. civil/military; contingency, data link, …) Develop own expertise (e.g. civil/military; contingency, data link, …) Act as a catalyst and concentrate on: Act as a catalyst and concentrate on: n Issues relevant for CEATS, with potential wider application n Domains not yet covered by others Develop partnerships with the EUROCONTROL Experimental Centre, R&D Establishments, Industry, Universities (Graz, Žilina, Budapest, Trieste, Belgrade, Dresden, … ) and Military Academies ! Develop partnerships with the EUROCONTROL Experimental Centre, R&D Establishments, Industry, Universities (Graz, Žilina, Budapest, Trieste, Belgrade, Dresden, … ) and Military Academies ! CRDS 1. R&D Co-ordination Data link Civil/Military FUA Syst.Appl.Dir.Routing Performance Metrics
36 Validation through simulations Improve and Validate operational and technical concepts Improve and Validate operational and technical concepts Improve : Improve : Translate concept in applicable working methods Translate concept in applicable working methods Provide recommendations Provide recommendations Validate: Validate: Provide information of performance to decision makers Provide information of performance to decision makers Information on Operability, Safety, Capacity,.. Environment, Economy According to common standards E-OCVM for validation methodology : for R ESARRs (2 and 4) : for Risk assessment and Risk mitigation ISO Certification process initiated CRDS 2. Validation Simulations E-OCVM: European Operational Concept Validation Model ESARR: Eurocontrol Safety Regulatory Requirement
37 Validation through simulations Model-Based Simulations (MBS): Model-Based Simulations (MBS): Use a mathematical simulator Use a mathematical simulator + : faster, large airspace, longer periods + : faster, large airspace, longer periods - : human is simulated - : human is simulated Capacity, Environment & Economy Capacity, Environment & Economy Real-Time Simulations (RTS): Real-Time Simulations (RTS): Simulate a real environment Simulate a real environment + : Human participation (controller & pilot) + : Human participation (controller & pilot) - : Costly and labour intensive - : Costly and labour intensive Operability & Safety Operability & Safety CRDS 2. Validation Simulations Capacity: typical 4 RTS and 4 MBS per year, depending on complexity Capacity: typical 4 RTS and 4 MBS per year, depending on complexity Q 2001 – 2006 : 18 RTS and 12 MBS Q 2007 : 4 RTS and 4 MBS + Connect with MALEV Flight Simulator
38 Support to Training The CRDS will add an additional element to the regional simulation training capability in particular for training and familiarisation with advanced system features. The CRDS will add an additional element to the regional simulation training capability in particular for training and familiarisation with advanced system features. Q Support Training of the Trainers in the context of CEATS Q In co-operation* with the other ANSP training centres and the EUROCONTROL IANS (Luxembourg). Q In co-operation with universities in the region Visitors Day, GENSPACE, Advanced Concepts in RTS, … Visitors Day, GENSPACE, Advanced Concepts in RTS, … * Co-operation to avoid overlap in existing and future work programmes CRDS 3. Support to Training
39 CRDS Team n 13 staff n 10 contractors n Experienced ATCOs Simulator Facilities Real-Time: n 26 Controllers Working Positions n 20 Pilot Working Positions n ASMT Model-Based (Mathematical models) n RAMS Plus n TAAM (Total Airspace & Airport Modeller) n LUCIAD CRDS Staff and Resources