Presentation on theme: "GENSPACE Air Traffic Management"— Presentation transcript:
1GENSPACE Air Traffic Management Philippe DEBELSCEATS Research Development and Simulation centre, BudapestEuropean Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation
2ATM : Overview Today Tomorrow The Air Transport “System” Analysis - PerformanceTomorrowForecastStrategy Documents
3ATM Today Air Transport System – Actors Main actorsAirspace users – The AirlinesAirportsAir Navigation Service Providers
4ATM Today Air Transport – Airlines Europe 5.000 commercial aircraftAverage flight 750 kmAverage flight duration 1h20flights per dayflights per yearflight hours per yearLoad factor (fill rate) 65 %1 B pax per year (100 pax/flight)employeesTotal revenue 100 B€/year
5ATM Today Air Transport – Airports Europe 2.200 airports in 36 countries766 recognised by IATAmovements/yearemployeesRevenueAeronautical B€/yearNon-aeronautical 11 B€/year
6ATM Today Air Transport – Air Navigation - Europe ICAO: The contracting States recognize that every State has complete and exclusive sovereignty over the airspace above its territory.
7ATM Today Air Transport – Air Navigation - Europe EUROCONTROL:37 Member States37 Service Providers (ANSP)68 Area Control Centres (ACC)600 Sectors at full capacityShanwickOAC417 Towers199 Approach unitsAir Traffic ControllersSupport staffEmployeesTotal revenue 7.5 B€/year
8ATM Today: the System Summary REMEMBERMain figures – Eurocontrol 37 Countriesflight per dayAverage 750 km or 1h30Air Traffic Controllers (total staff)600 sectorsAir Transport European Region : 120 billion €/yearATM cost Europe : 7.5 billion €/year
9ATM Today The System – Analysis FragmentationHeterogeneityComplexity
10ATM Today The System – Fragmentation Actors Fragmentation – All actors concernedAirspace: size, military TSA, …ANSPs: civil/military; size; units (ACCs, APPs).ATM systems, interfaces, CNS infrastructure.Process: procurement, development, …Cost estimate fragmentation:1 B €/year
11ATM Today The System - Heterogeneity Productivity: Flight h / ATCO h: to 1.53, <> 0.65Institutional arrangement:Gvt department, State enterprise, Gvt owned company,Limited liability companySafety: Heterogeneous implementation of regulationsCosts:Cost controlled flight h: 185 to 650€/h, <> 453€/hCost of ATCO: 3 to 135€/h, <> 69 €/hBring ‘last in class’ to average0.6 B €/year
12ATM Today The System - Complexity Non-linear relation betweentraffic and delays !Complexity not uniform
13ATM Today Performance Review Capacity and DelaysCost-effectivenessFlight efficiencySafety
14ATM Today: Performance Capacity and Delays 3-year capacity-traffic lag being squeezed80% capacity growth1 minute average delay/flight by 2006De-coupling delays andtraffic growthInvestments toomuch “reactive” ?
15ATM Today: Performance Capacity and Delays En-route ATFM delays slightly increasing1.4 min/flightin high traffic growth,Nearly at economic optimum delay target 1 min/flightAirport ATFM delays warrant special attention.
16ATM Today: Performance Capacity and Delays Cost of delaysDelay ? Definition ? Cost for whom ?Tactical; Reactionary; Strategic delays; Passengers ?Average 72 €/minCrew 10 €Maintenance 1 €Pax compensation 24 €Pax opportunity cost 36 €289 €/min<1 €/min11 B €/year
17ATM Today: Performance Cost-effectiveness Until now, cost ~ traffic, unit cost and effectiveness stable.But …Available projections indicate thatunit costs will decreasemore or less in line with the cost-effectiveness target in the coming years.
18ATM Today: Performance Flight efficiency Flight not direct.Cause: airspace structure, en-route congestion, route charge differentials .Marginal cost of schedule time:€ 19/min for an ATR42€131/min for a Baverage €6.4/NM€3.5/km (2004)Military zoneMargin forimprovement1.5 B €/year
19ATM Today: Performance Safety Data ?“Some progress …… incident reporting and transparency.Legal and cultural impediments …..…. still exist24 regulatory authorities & 19 ANSPs…. not meet acceptable maturity level”ATM contribution: 2..6 %15 States: more incidents reported; High severity incidents constant
20ATM Today: Performance Summary REMEMBERATM is performing well:Average delays at near economic optimum : 1.4 min/flightUnit costs stable : 0.80 € /kmDelay costs for airlines : 70 € /minuteBut, still high margins for improvements:Safety level (implementation of regulations; reporting)Fragmentation : 1 B€/yearDelays (ATFM) : 1 B€ / yearProductivity : 0.6 B€ / yearFlight Efficiency : 1.5 B€ / year
21ATM Tomorrow: Forecast Challenge 1 - Traffic growth Growth of controlled air traffic: 4 % in 2006Expected to continue at similar rates.Traffic growth varied greatly across control centres in 2006(0% to +20%).
22ATM Tomorrow: Forecast Challenge 1 - Traffic growth Some countriesspectacularincreases of20% in 2006Heterogeneity
23ATM Tomorrow: Forecast Challenge 1 - Traffic growth A: strong economies and limited oil price growthB: ‘business as usual’C: increased environmental costs, larger aircraft, more limited trade, traffic liberalizationD: world of tensions between regions and very high oil price
25ATM Tomorrow: Forecast Challenge 2 - Safety What people perceiveAccidents = Traffic x Accident RatePublic perceives Absolute Number of Accident,Not the Accident Rate ! Needs to be lowered drastically !
26ATM Tomorrow: Forecast Challenge 2 - Safety At constant Safety LevelRelation between accidents rate and traffic is QUADRATIC:absolute accident = constanttraffic x 2 safety level x 412348910111213141516Traffic (million flights)Risk trendRisk target
27ATM Tomorrow: Forecast Challenge 2 - Safety Relation between accidents rate and traffic is quadratic:If absolute accident = constantIf Traffic x 2Then safety level x 43 flights3 potential conflicts3 x 2 flights3 x 22 = 12 potential conflicts3 flights3 potential conflicts
28ATM Tomorrow Strategy Documents European Commission, Sep.2001White Paper « European Transport Policy for 2010 »European Commissioner for Research, Jan.2001Group of Aeronautics PersonalitiesA vision for 2020Advisory Council for Aeronautics Research in Europe (ACARE)Strategic Research Agenda: SRA-1 and SRA-2Single European Sky and SESAR
29ATM Tomorrow Strategy Documents Challenges for 2020Traffic: 2020: 3 x more trafficSafety: Accident rate -80%; Safety: x 10Environment: Emissions, Noise: - 50% … -80%Quality of serviceTime in airport maximum 15 min (short) and 30 min (long)99% flight within 15 min of schedule, all weather conditionsSecurity: Zero successful hijackONE European airspace – “SES”European rules !New Air Traffic Control Paradigm ?
30REMEMBER ATM Tomorrow Summary Traffic increase 4 .. 5% / year Traffic forecast for xSafety relation to traffic QUADRATICSafety target 10 xQuality targetTime in airport minPunctuality 99% flight within 15 min all weather conditionsR&D budget M€/year (3%)
31ATM : Preparing for the future SolutionsRole of the CRDS
32Closing the capacity gap EUROCONTROL Potential solutionsPossible solutions :Route optimisation (cf. Flight efficiency)Additional sectors (physical limit)Support tools for controllersNew technologiesTrafficR&DSESARR&DR&DCASCADEModeSFASTILINK2000ACAS8.33Predicted capacityDMEAN1 minute delaySafety - SecurityAirportsClosing the capacity gap
33A European ATM Master Plan To Unlock Air Transport Converging Industry, EC & EUROCONTROLNeeds:Turn off fragmented approachAccelerate ATM evolution in response to challengesSynchronise & integrate plans from research to operationsSynchronise airborne and ground deploymentsSESARSupport Single European Sky technical/operational implementation3 Phases:Definition of European ATM Master Plan ( early 2008)Development (2008 2013)Deployment (2014 2020)
34Closing the capacity gap EUROCONTROL Potential solutionsDMEAN8.33ModeSLINK2000ACASCASCADEFASTIPhase 2SESARPredicted capacityTrafficClosing the capacity gapSafety - SecurityAirports1 minute delayProgramme phasesfor capacityR&DPhase 1Phase 3Possible solutions :Route network optimisationAdditional sectorsSupport tools for controllersNew technologiesBut …Maximum benefit in large airspaceNeed to be further optimisedNeed to be tested and validatedTask of CRDSDevelop and improve the solutions (R&D)Test and validate the solutions (simulations)Disseminate the knowledge (training)FABCEATS3 Pillars forCRDS
35CRDS 1. R&D Co-ordination Focal point ATM R&D Central Europe CRDS has limited resources for R&D !Develop own expertise (e.g. civil/military; contingency, data link, …)Act as a catalyst and concentrate on:Issues relevant for CEATS, with potential wider applicationDomains not yet covered by othersDevelop partnerships with the EUROCONTROL Experimental Centre, R&D Establishments, Industry, Universities (Graz, Žilina, Budapest, Trieste, Belgrade, Dresden, … ) and Military Academies !Data linkCivil/Military FUA Syst.Appl.Dir.RoutingPerformance Metrics
362. Validation Simulations CRDS2. Validation SimulationsValidation through simulationsImprove and Validate operational and technical conceptsImprove :Translate concept in applicable working methodsProvide recommendationsValidate:Provide information of performance to decision makersInformation on Operability, Safety, Capacity, Environment, EconomyAccording to common standardsE-OCVM for validation methodologyESARRs (2 and 4) : for Risk assessment and Risk mitigationISO Certification process initiatedE-OCVM: European Operational Concept Validation Model ESARR: Eurocontrol Safety Regulatory Requirement
372. Validation Simulations CRDS2. Validation SimulationsValidation through simulationsModel-Based Simulations (MBS):Use a mathematical simulator+ : faster, large airspace, longer periods- : human is simulated Capacity, Environment & EconomyReal-Time Simulations (RTS):Simulate a “real” environment+ : Human participation (controller & pilot)- : Costly and “labour intensive” Operability & Safety2001 – : 18 RTS and 12 MBS: 4 RTS and 4 MBS Connect with MALEV Flight Simulator Capacity: typical 4 RTS and 4 MBS per year, depending on complexity
38CRDS 3. Support to Training Support to Training The CRDS will add an additional element to the regional simulation training capability in particular for training and familiarisation with advanced system features.Support “Training of the Trainers” in the context of CEATSIn co-operation* with the other ANSP training centres and the EUROCONTROL IANS (Luxembourg).In co-operation with universities in the region Visitors’ Day, GENSPACE, Advanced Concepts in RTS, …* Co-operation to avoid overlap in existing and future work programmes
39CRDS Staff and Resources CRDS Team13 staff10 contractorsExperienced ATCOsSimulator FacilitiesReal-Time:26 Controllers Working Positions20 Pilot Working PositionsASMTModel-Based (Mathematical models)RAMS PlusTAAM (Total Airspace & Airport Modeller)LUCIAD