1. Oregon’s Economic Forecast May 17, 2013 Northwest Economic Research Center College of Urban and Public Affairs

2. About Northwest Economic Research Center (NERC) Established in 2011 Hosted at the College of Urban and Public Affairs (CUPA) in Portland State University Director: Dr. Thomas Potiowsky Assistant Director: Dr. Jenny H Liu 2

3. About OEA 3 Excerpts from Slide Presentation to Governor’s Council of Economic Advisors Preliminary Economic Outlook Office of Economic Analysis Mark McMullen Josh Lehner

4. Recent Oregon Economy Facts 4 8.2% Unemployment rate for March 2013 (March US rate is 7.6% from 8.8% March 2012, and down 3.4% from recession highs) (US April rate 7.5%) (OR April 8.0%) 17 th fastest job growth at 1.5% for all states for March 2013 over March 2012. Total nonfarm employment increased 1.4% year-over- year for the first quarter of 2013. Total nonfarm up 66,200 since Feb 2010 with the private sector up 73,000 through March 2013. 5.3% personal income growth for 4 th quarter of 2012 over 4 th quarter of 2011. Annualized 4 th quarter 2012 growth at 7.5%. YTD Oregon exports through February 2013 are up 3.0% from a year ago. Computer and electronic products: -9.8% Agricultural products: +33.5% All other: 0.9%

5. Oregon Exports 5

6. Correcting the Jobs Data Again! Index: Feb 2010=100 6 Prelim May 2013 economic outlook uses clean CES data, no prelim benchmark data however…

7. Recovery Spreading to Rural Areas 7

8. 8 Leading Indicators

9. Oregon Coincident Index Components

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11. Drags on Economic Growth Are Easing 11

12. 12 Detailed Industry Forecast

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17. 17 Here we go again!

18. Medium Term Downgraded Slightly 18

19. Quote: On Financial Crisis and Our Approach to Get Out of It Will Rogers: “If Stupidity Got Us Into This Mess, Why Can’t It Get Us Out” 19

20. 20 Information for the presentation draws from the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis 155 Cottage Street NE Salem, OR 97301 (503) 378-3405 oea.info@state.or.us www.oregon.gov/das/oea Social Media: oregoneconomicanalysis.wordpress.com @OR_EconAnalysis Presented by Dr. Thomas Potiowsky Northwest Econoimc Research Center 530A SW Mill Street Portland, Oregon 97207 Nerc@pdx.edu www.pdx.edu/NERC @nercpdx