1. RDP/FDP FROST-2014: state of affairs Dmitry Kiktev Hydrometcentre of Russia / Roshydromet 18-19 July 2013 WWRP JSC6 Meeting, Geneva

2. Goals of RDP/FDP FROST-2014: To improve and exploit: – high-resolution deterministic mesoscale forecasts of meteorological conditions in winter complex terrain environment; – regional meso-scale ensemble forecast products in winter complex terrain environment; – nowcast systems of high impact weather phenomena (wind, visibility, precipitation type and intensity etc.) in complex terrain. To improve the understanding of physics of high impact weather phenomena in the region; To deliver deterministic and probabilistic forecasts in real time to Olympic weather forecasters and decision makers. To assess benefits of forecast improvement (verification and societal impacts) To develop a comprehensive information resource of alpine winter weather observations;

3. 3 rd meeting of the project participants (10-12 April 2013, Saint Petersburg) Participants of the FROST-2014 project: COSMO, EC, FMI, HIRLAM, KMA, NOAA, Roshydromet, ZAMG under supervision of the WWRP WGs on Nowcasting, Mesoscale Forecasting, Verification Research

4. FROST-2014 Observational Set-up for the Sochi Olympics About 50 automatic meteorological stations; Vaisala C-band Doppler radar WRM200 in Sochi; Temperature/Humidity Profiler HATPRO; Wind Profiler Scintec-3000; Two METEK Micro Rain Radars (MRR-2); 4 times/day upper air sounding in Sochi

5. The Olympic sport venues Each venue has one basic station and 1-4 supplementary stations; Each basic station has fixed set of sensors; Supplementary stations have variable set of sensors

6. Basic weather stations at the sport venues Parameters: Temperature and humidity; Wind parameters (h=10m); Wind speed (h=2m); Pressure; Accumulated precipitation; Precipitation type; Visibility; Height of cloud base; Snow depth; Temperature of snow; Temperature of snow surface; Solar radiation

7. Sensors of the basic weather stations

8. Supplementary weather stations Fixed set of parameters: Temperature and humidity; Snow depth (except stations 39041, 39048); Temperature of snow (except st. 39041, 39048); Temperature of snow surface (except st. 39048); Options (for some stations): Wind parameters (h=10m) (stations 39041, 39046, 39048); Wind speed (h=2m) (station 39043); Pressure (station 39043); Sum of precipitation (station 39046); Visibility and Type of precipitation (stations 39041, 39046, 39048)

9. Quality Control of station observations At the moment implemented partially for real-time data Parameters: T, humidity, wind, Pmsl Components: - Check of limits; - Spatial control - for observations at 00, 03, 06..21 UTC; - Temporal control – for 10-minute observations; - QC with respect to COSMO-2.2 forecasts (works better for temperature than for humidity); - Manual control

10. Snow Density Measurements DateTime (Moscow) Measuri ng bar indicati ons, cm Snawfall Intensity, cm / hr Snow Increase, cm Fresh Snow Density, g / cm 3 Type of crystalls Size of cristalls, mm Preciptation type Wetness of precipiation Preciptation Amount ( mm ) Air Temperature Wind Speed and Direction 12345678910111213 Snowfall 1 started 4.01.13. 9:00 4.01.1309.00>2SnowDry-3 0 12.0020.720.141-2SnowDry-2,5 0 15.005130.122SnowDry-2,6 0 18.0060.310.122SnowDry3.7-2,50 21.0080.720.103SnowDry-1,91 00.009.50.51.50.103SnowDry-2.50 5.01.133.00193.29.50.83SnowDry-2.62 During snowfalls manual snow density measurements are curried out by the party of anti-avalunch service in Krasnaya Polyana. According to AMS observations there were precipitation intensities up to 30 cm/hour at Roza-Khutor.

11. Vaisala C-band Doppler radar WRM200 on Akhun mountain in Sochi was launched in September 2012 Max reflectivity; wind&refl 2km-cappy; echo tops; 1-hour precipitation Altitude – 646 m Location: 43 о 3252,6 ״ N, 39 о 51 ׳ 05,0 ״ E. Raw Turkish data are expected to be available

12. Composite map for the Akhun, Trabzon and Samsun radars

13. - Temperature/Humidity – HATPRO (RPG GmBh, Germany); - Wind – Scintec-3000 Radar Wind Profiler (Scintec Corp, USA); - Two METEK Micro Rain vertically pointing Radars (MRR-2) Profilers + 4 times/day upper air sounding in Sochi

14. Input from the project participants: Roshydromet: COSMO and other activities Current state: Regular runs of COSMO-RU7, COSMO-RU2. Expected: nudging-based data assimilation, more frequent update cycle. COSMO-RU with ~1km spacing (together with MeteoSwiss and DWD). 3D-Var assimilation with COSMO-RU2, assimilation of satellite and Doppler radar radial winds. Attempts to introduce an ensemble data assimilation component. Integrating multi-system nowcasting and short-range forecasting input. ARPA-SIMC/COSMO Current state: Regular generation of COSMO-S14-EPS products with 7-km grid spacing. Provision of boundary and initial conditions for COSMO-RU7- EPS. Improvement of soil initial conditions in COSMO-S14-EPS. Provision of boundary and initial conditions for further downscaling in Roshydromet. Intercomparison of COSMO-S14-EPS and ECMWF-EPS using SYNOP reports. Expected: Continuous provision of COSMO-S14-EPS fields. MeteoSwiss/COSMO: Development and experiments with 1 km COSMO version. DWD/COSMO: Experiments with regional data assimilation

15. Input from the project participants-2: HIRLAM: Current state: Providing GLAMEPS output routinely Calibration of GLAMEPS forecasts at observational sites in the Sochi area has not yet started. Tests of HarmonEPS ongoing Expected: Run HarmonEPS for the area of Sochi. Continue to deliver GLAMEPS output Calibration of GLAMEPS forecasts in routine by 1 December at latest. Environment Canada: Current state: Real-time system now set up and running. Includes initial and boundary conditions from 25 km global run (GEM model) with one-way nests to 10 km, 2.5 km, 1 km, and 250 m grids. 4D-Var for 25 km global (driving) model. Expected: Increase of vertical resolution with considerably higher resolution in the boundary layer. Modifications to the microphysics. Global (driving) model with 4D-Var may switch from 25 km to 15 km by 2014. External land surface modeling system (e.g. 100 m) and high-resolution snow analysis may be done by next year.

16. Input from the project participants-3: Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) Current state: INCA 1-hourly analysis and forecast grb files transfer started Expected: Aladin LAEF (Test data are already on the FROST-2014 server) FMI: Expected: Quasi-operational running of HARMONIE with 2.5 km spacing for Sochi region. Testing of HARMONIE with different resolutions (1 - 1.5 - 2.5 km) and different orographic datasets Quasi-operational running of FMI Road Weather Model for selected Sochi highways. Close-to-real-time objective point verification with FMI verification package for model output that is available at common FROST-2014 ftp server; also final forecasts produced by meteorologists, if available IRAM Current state: MeteoExpert nowcasting system data transfer to the project server.

17. Input from the project participants - 4 NOAA Current state: Routine 1 km NMMB model run (4X/day) initialized from the GFS. Resolved some problems with gridded output products, began work on time series output at specific points. Routine 7-member NMMB-based ensemble at 7 km grid spacing (2X/day). Point forecasts in XML-format Korean Meteorological Administration Expected: Site-specific forecasts over Sochi-area by downscaling from global model (25km). High resolution forecast(1km) over Sochi-area. Several meter resolution Land Surface Process for game area by dynamic and statistical downscaling from 1km. Site-specific probablistic forecasts over Sochi-area by downscaling from global ensemble models. Data assimilation: Depend on collected observation data (Successive Correction Method). Objective verification of site specific forecasts.

18. Integrating multi-system forecast inputs at the Hydrometcentre of Russia F. Woodcock and C. Engel: Operational Consensus Forecasts, Weather and Forecasting, 2005; L.X. Huang and G.A. Isaac: Integrating NWP Forecasts and Observation Data to Improve Nowcasting Accuracy, Weather and Forecasting, 2012 F(t) – integrated forecast (t – forecast time); O – last available observation; f i (t) – forecast of i-th participating forecasting system; α(t), β i (t) - weights; b i (t) - bias for i-th forecasting system In [Huang, Isaac, 2012]

19. Nowcasting project component: INTW, CARDS, ABOM, INCA, MeteoExpert, HMCs system

20. Deterministic NWP project component COSMO-RU with grid spacing 2.2 km, 1 km (new); GEM with grid spacing 2.5km, 1km, 0.25km; NMMB – 1 km; HARMONIE - 2.5km KMAs 1km version of UM … GEM - 250 m

21. Ensemble project component Current state: COSMO-S14-EPS, GLAMEPS, NOAA-7km EPS, Aladin LAEF, COSMO-RU2 Expected: HARMON-EPS KMAs downscaling of probabilistic forecasts. Poor mans ensemble of deterministic high-resolution models

22. JSC5 Decisions /Actions Required 44. JSC endorsed the FDP/RDP proposal for Sochi Winter Olympic Games in 2014, but expressed concern that the proposal timelines would not provide a stable software environment for the forecasters, thus jeopardizingthe provision of accurate forecast information. It was also suggested that trial periods and decided training activities be conducted to expose the Olympic forecasters to the new models.

23. Grapical Tools

24. COSMO-RU02 Horizontal resolution 2.2 km Grapical Tools

25. Forecaster role: Best forecasts include a forecaster with conceptual models of local process evolution and access to automated tools. FROST-2014 is intended as an end-to-end project. Its products will be used by local forecasters for meteorological support of the Olympics and preceding test sport events. The last chance to introduce new FDP-products to forecasters will be training in October 2013 (before that there will be training in August). Forecasters training Forecasters trainings are held on regular basis; Participants are involved into provision of meteorological services for sport test events.

26. Forecast Verification METv4.0+ (Model Evaluation Tool / NCAR) software was adapted for the FROST-2014 needs; Two papers on forecast verification for Sochi region were submitted; Official forecasts are planned to be available for further verification along with the project objective forecasts Distributed verification activity ? (Roshydromet–FMI (JWG on Verification Research))

27. Station-based diagnostic verification on example of COSMO-RU2 forecasts The values relate to the histogram bin centers. Green lines denote the bin sample volume of at least 20 pairs (sample stability). Calibration implies a shift of the forecast mean-median to the leading diagonal. The t2m area outside the green strip indicates sample instability (calibration uncertainty). Importance of the above diagnostic verification for decision-making. Parameter: T2m Station: RKHU1, (Aibga) 2250 m. Period: winter 2011-2012

28. Polygonal Verification for SOCHI_COAST (19 Stations), ADLER_COAST (8), KR_POLYANA (22), ALPICA(20) Local Climatology: Coastal zone (0 – 300 m), Submountane zone (300-600 m), Alpine zone (600 – 2500 m).

29. SKILL SCORING for the polygons Category T2m > 0 C forecasts. Hanssen-Kuipers discriminant, (Peirce skill score). Period: winter 2011-2012 Obs-Frcs matching: for every hour with 10 min obs window; several interpolation methods to COSMO grid were tried Measures: Categorical (contingency tables) and continuous scores, 95% confidence intervals Sochi coast coastal cluster Kr Polyana

30. a b c d ef Sochi coast coastal cluster Kr Polyana MEAN ERROR RMSE

31. COSMO-RU2 T2m Mean Errors for Krasnaya Polyana polygon for two consequent winter seasons: Mean Error changed its sign ! 01.12.2011-31.03.2012 01.01.2013-15.03.2013 Potential reasons behind: - effects of inter-annual changes in the large-scale circulation (winter 2012-2013 was unusually warm) ? - changes in the driving global model ? - …………..

32. Radar max reflectivity versus NMMB column max reflectivity and 1-hour precipitation total with 6 hrs lead time With precautions it will be tried as a ground for spatial verification

33. Social and Economic Impacts Socially significant project application areas: Education Understanding Transfer of technologies Practical forecasting – first guess for operational official forecasts. Integrated project forecasts will be used as a first guess for the data feed to the Olympic information system (supported by IOC partner Atos Origin) and Olympic Broadcasting Services (OBS). Two Earths (with and without FROST-2014) are needed for the project impact assessment !

34. Thank you! http://frost2014.meteoinfo.ru

35. Current Instrumentul Setup (AMSs and Sensors Installed): Roshydromets stations Station Name WMO index Coordinates HmHm Measured parameters T air Rel. hum. Wind Liquid Precip. Solid Precip. Snow Height Snow TVisibility Atm. Pressur e Cloud base Aviation station «Adler» 37171 43°26'20,83"39°55'50,80" +++++++ Automated АМК «Sochi» 37099 43°34'23,76"39°45'21,00" 142++++++ Krasnaya Polyana 37107 43°40'56,10"40°12'10,52" 565+++++++ Kordon Laura 37090 43°41'59,15"40°15'54,56" 575+++++++ Aibga 37108 43°38'5,29"40°17'4,69" 2225++++++ Gornaya carousel -100037102 43°40'0440°15'24 977,8++++++++ Gornaya carousel -150037098 43°39'15"40°15'04" 1434 ++++++++ Kepsha 37100 43°36'54,18"40°2'56,60" 180+++++++++ Solokh-Aul 37092 43°48'39°38' 230+++++++++ Lazarevskoye 37093 43°54'39°20' 20++++++++ Magry 37015 43°01'39°10' 25+++++ Imeretinka 37095 43°24'05"39°57'14" 60++++++ Kichmai3709443°50'00"39°30'43"38 2 stations (Alpica-Service-1000&1500) were closed. 3 new stations were opened (Gornaya Carousel-1000&1500, Kichmai) Issues: tipping bucket; 1-hour precipitation totals; snow height

36. Current Instrumentul Setup (AMSs and Sensors Installed): IRAMs Stations at the sport venues Station Name WMO index Coordinates HmHm Measured parameters T air Rel. humidi ty Wind Directi on Wind Speed Liquid Precip. Solid Precip. Snow Height Snow surfac e T Snow T Visibili ty Atm. Press ure Cloud base Biathlon + Skiing Venue Biathlon-140039042 43°41'35,32"40°19'6,73" 1405+++++ Biathlon Stadium39044 43°41'31,63"40°19'36,05" 1455+++++++++++ Skiing Stadium39043 43°41'40,52"40°19'43,69" 1480+++++++ Biathlon-150039045 43°41'34,90"40°20'6,70" 1495+++++ Ski Jumping Ski Jumping-80039041 43°40'27,10"40°14'24,30" 781 +++++++++++ Ski Jumping-65039040 43°40'38,30"40°14'24,30" 628 ++++++++++++ Nordic combined-67539050 43°40'39"40°14'15" 676 Nordic combinedn-61539051 43°40'39"40°14'04" 616 Sledge Sledge-83039046 43°39'45,30"40°17'10,02" 830+++++++++ Sledge-70039047 43°40'7,33"40°17'19,97" 700++++++++++++ Snowboard & Freestyle Snowboard39049 43°39'22,12"40°19'42,59" 1020 ++++++++++++ Freestyle39048 43°39'12,46"40°19'14,02"1130 +++++++++ Basic frequency of observations - 10-minutes; 1-minute observations for prec intensity, visibility, cloud base, wind gusts Issues: snow surface temperature and height

37. Current Instrumentul Setup (AMSs and Sensors Installed): Roza-Khutor - Alpine Skiing Venue Station NameCoordinates H, m Measured parameters T air Rel. humidi ty Wind Directi on Wind Speed Liquid Precip. Solid Precip. Snow Height Snow surfac e T Snow T Visibili ty Atm. Pressu re Cloud base 11Sr (Aibga) 43°37'24"40°18'45" 2320+++++ 12Sr (Mens start) 43°37'47"40°18'25" 2040+++++++++++ 13Sr (Womens start) 43°38'08"40°18'32" 1750+++++++++++ 14Sr(Middle Point) 43°38'22"40°18'47" 1580+++++++++ 17Sr(Finish) 43°38'43"40°19'53"980++++++++++++

38. Current Instrumentul Setup (AMSs and Sensors Installed) : «Meteofon» stations at the towers of mobile communication Station Name WMO index Coordinates H Above sea lev., m Measured parameters (Vaisala WXT-520) Air temperat ure Rel. humidity Wind Direction Wind Speed Liquid Precip. Amount Solid Precip. Amount Atm. Pressure Sochi-Plastunka3900343°38'23"39°45'26"152 ++++++ Adler-Galitsino3901643°32'03"39°59'15"485 ++++++ Esto-Sadok3902143°41'14"40°15'23"525 ++++++ Matsesta-Chai3902443°37'36"39°52'39"421 ++++++ Akhun mountain3902243°32'53"39°51'03"693 ++++++ Krasnaya Polyana3902543°40'23"40°12'03"503 ++++++ Kalinovo lake3900243°36'58"39°52'55"403 ++++++ Adler-Airport3901343°26'42"39°55'12"146 ++++++ Veseloye3901243°26'24"40°00'36"124 ++++++ Ermolovka3901443°27'36"40°01'48" 346 ++++++ Lesnoye3901743°34'12"39°58'48"339 ++++++ Pogranichnik3901043°25'12"39°55'12"12 ++++++ Loo3902643°42'36"39°34'48"180 ++++++ Pikhtinka3902343°37'12"40°04'48"720 ++++++ Zubova shel3900543°49'48"39°25'12"215 ++++++ Adler-Norluis3901143°25'28"39°58'54"173 ++++++ Adler-Moldovka3901543°28'21"39°57'36"205 ++++++ Sochi-Obzornaya3900443°40'53"39°42'23"381 ++++++ Sochi-Verbliud3900143°35'08"40°00'34"285 ++++++ Veseloye-Mirra3902043°24'54"40°00'18"28 ++++++ Issues related: Nonstandard height; precipitation measurements