1. Modelling Activities at CAWCR, 2010: Selected Highlights
Presenter: Gary Dietachmayer
WGNE-26
Tokyo, October 2010

2. Overview – riding instructions
From your perspective do you seek or can you provide some advice to other groups? Is there a need for a workshop on an issue that WGNE should be involved in? Are there any new concrete projects that would benefit from a group effort that WGNE can support?
We have shortened the time for each report to 20 minutes including questions ………….. This means that we do not expect a full report on what happened at your centre in the last 12 months.
WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

3. Overview New Supercomputers Drove some timelines
CMIP5 related activities
Major activity
NWP (high-res) / SREP (grey-zone????)
WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

4. Supercomputer Combined bid with BoM and CSIRO/ANU/NCI
‘Solar’ (BoM-HO) and ‘vayu’ (ANU)
WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

5. Supercomputer (NEC SX6 – Solar)
WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

6. Supercomputer (vayu) 1492 nodes Each of two quad-core Nehalem CPUs
Peak theoretical performance of approximately 140TFlops.
Total of 37TB of RAM on compute nodes
Approx 800 TBytes of usable global storage
(very) loose division: Solar for NWP, (fraction of vayu, approx 1,000 cores) for climate
WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

7. Supercomputer (Solar timelines)
Feb 09 Contract signed
Jun 09 Phase One: Initial system delivery.
….. resolution of a number of HW/SW issues …..
30 May 10 Phase Two: Full system ready for production use.
22 Jun 10 Oracle and BoM declare system ready for operational use.
29 Jun 10 NMOC declares the core ACCESS NWP suite operational on Solar.
31 Aug 10 NMOC software suites operational on Solar, NEC decommissioned.
WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

8. CMIP5/CLIMATE (models)
CSIRO Mk3.6 AOGCM
Existing global AOGCM
CMIP5 long term only
Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (C-CAM)
Existing RCM – CAWCR is currently reviewing its RCM capability
CORDEX
Two African simulations
One by McGregor at al., CAWCR/CSIRO
One by collaborators at Univ. Pretoria.
Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS)
New global AOGCM/ESM
CMIP5 long term initially
WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

9. CMIP5 (CSIRO Mk3.6) Features:
Atmosphere: Grid T63 (1.875 x 1.875); 18 levels - hybrid sigma,p
Ocean: MOM2.2 code; Grid 0.94 NS x EW; 31 levels
Interactive aerosol treatment – sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, mineral dust and sea salt
Upgraded radiation scheme, upgraded (non-local) PBL scheme
Anthropogenic aerosol impact on Australian rainfall
Shadings indicate significance at the 5% and the 1% level
WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

10. CMIP5 (CSIRO Mk3.6)
Control
500 yr 1
Completed 450/500
70% delivered
Historical 10 
AMIP
Mid-Holocene
100 yr
Completed 370/400
0% delivered
RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 8.5
 5 yrs remaining on E10
25% delivered
1%/yr CO2 to 4x
140
AGCM + control SSTs 30
AGCM + control SSTs + 4x CO2
4x CO2
1+11
AGCM + control SSTs + AA
AGCM + control SSTs + SA
Historical (natural)
Historical (GHGs)
75% delivered
Historical (anthropogenic)
50% delivered
Historical (all except ozone)
Historical (all except AA)
Historical (AA)
Historical (Asian aerosols)
Completed 60/156
Asian aerosol experiment was a recent addition – explains the limited progress
WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

11. CMIP5 (ACCESS coupled model)
Atmosphere: UKMO UM Grid N96 (1.875 x 1.25); 38 levels
Sea Ice: CICE Grid 1.0 x 1.0, enhanced tropical; 46 levels
Coupler: OASIS or 4
Ocean: “AusCOM” MOM 4p1
Land surface/carbon cycle: “CABLE” (Kowalczyk et al. 2006) CASA-CNP + LPJ dynamic vegetation
Land-surface is currently MOSES-II
CSIRO Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE),
WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

12. CMIP5 (ACCESS coupled model)
For AR5 timeline, AOGCM only
Status
Components coupled and numerous centennial-length simulations performed
Now have two versions
Atmosphere – HadGEM2 settings (much delayed)
Atmosphere – proto-HadGEM3 settings + modifications
Extensive evaluation underway
Resources
New NCI machine (share ~1,000 cores)
6 coupled simulations in parallel at 4 years per day
should be adequate to perform “core” experiments in 4 months
WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

13. CMIP5 (ACCESS coupled model)
ΔSST (model – obs) (K)
Version with HadGEM2 atmosphere
Version with proto-HadGEM3 atmosphere
WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

14. CMIP5 (ACCESS coupled model)
Aims for AR5 (as early as possible 2011)
All “core” long term CMIP5 simulations
Consider select “Tier 1” and “Tier 2” if time
Aims for CMIP5 subsequent to AR5
Tier 1 and Tier 2 expanded set
ESM participation (include carbon cycle)
CFMIP (?)
Transpose-AMIP (?)
Potential – CMIP5 short term decadal
Potential – CMIP5 atmospheric chemistry
Potential if Univ. collaboration – PMIP
Model output
Post-processing using CMOR; hosted at NCI ESG node/gateway
WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

15. ACCESS-NWP (APS0 timelines)
Replicates legacy domains
G – Global (80km)
R – Regional (38km)
T – Tropical (38km)
A – Australian Meso (12km)
C – City (5km)
TC – Tropical Cyclone (12km)
G, R, T went operational Sept/Oct 2009 on NEC-SX6
Solar declared operational June
G, R, T, A – June-29
C operational – August-12
Last forecasts from GASP, LAPS, TXLAPS, MesoLAPS, MALAPS – August-17
NEC-SX6 shutdown – August-31
Not yet operational – TC, UM-based-Ozone
WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

16. ACCESS-NWP (APS0 G Verification)
WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

17. ACCESS-NWP (APS0 R/T/A verification)
MSLP
S1 (upper)
RMS (middle)
Bias (lower)
Sep-2009 to Aug-2010 (R, T)
Nov-2009 to Aug-2010 (A)
Up to 72hr (R, T)
Up to 48hr (A)
- Verified against own analyses, on model-grid
- Skill measures are S1 skill score, RMS error and bias.
- Units are tenths of hPa, tenths of metres, tenths of K and tenths of m/s.
LAPS, ACCESS-R
TXLAPS, ACCESS-T
MesoLAPS, MALAPS, ACCESS-A
WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

18. ACCESS-NWP (ACCESS-C)
“Tropical” city systems (Brisbane, Sydney) crashed often in development
Signal was localised run-away vertical-velocities
Resistant to UM targeted-diffusion
Were using UKMO 4km system parameters, but for now “old” model (v6.4)
“Grey zone” issue???
Experiment with convective-settings
Change CAPE-closure from “Grid-box-area scaled” to “vertical-velocity dependent”
Stronger coupling between developing instability and stabilising action of parameterised convection
WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

19. ACCESS-NWP (ACCESS-C)
Change stabilises and (probably) improves rainfall accuracy
WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

20. ACCESS-NWP (ACCESS-TC)
ACCESS-TC close to complete
Assim/Forecast components in place, number of promising studies for NH and SH TCs
Post-processing/diagnostic tools being finalised
Addition of TC-bogus to other ACCESS systems
Should be ready for Aus TC season
WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

21. ACCESS-NWP (APS1 - Domains)
Replicates legacy domains
APS1:
No 0.375o equivalent
N320 global, some experimentation with N512
Meso domain now focussed on ACCESS-R replacement
No TXLAPS equivalent ??
L50 -> L70
WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

22. ACCESS-NWP (APS1 – Model/Assim)
“Catch-up”: move from UM 6.4 to 7.5
Re-examine model issues from APS0
Convection / Precipitation for “C” (and “R-12” !), particularly in (semi) tropics
Grey-Zone Project ???
(Very) large velocities at top-of-model in “R”, feeding into “C”.
New/extended satellite data
IASI, NOAA-19 ATOVS, GPS-RO, hourly AMVs
SSMI/S out of scope for APS1, high-priority for APS2
Improved background error specification for ACCESS-R12
IASI - Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer
HIRS/3 infrared sounders with the same spatial resolution as AMSU-B are also included on NOAA satellites and are used together with AMSU-A and AMSU-B. Together the three instruments form ATOVS, the Advanced TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder.
GPS Radio occultation ….. The technique involves a low-Earth orbit satellite receiving a signal from a GPS satellite. The signal has to pass through the atmosphere and gets refracted along the way. The magnitude of the refraction depends on the temperature and water vapor concentration in the atmosphere.[1]
The Special Sensor Microwave Imager / Sounder" (SSMI/S) is an eleven-channel, eight-frequency, linearly polarized passive microwave radiometric system.
WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

23. SREP (Strategic Radar Enhancement Project)
CAWCR: Improve the underlying science to assimilate radar data into the Bureau’s NWP models
OEB: Install 4 new radars
(Eventual) Replacement for city based systems
5km → ~2km
00 & 12Z → 00, 03, 06, 09, 12, ….
Assimilation
In situ obs & satellite
Doppler winds
Precipitation
“Catch-up
WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

24. SREP (Strategic Radar Enhancement Project)
Sydney 1.5km resolution ‘test-bed’.
Focus is very much on DA, but some model development/evaluation is budgeted for.
Milestones
Date
Activity 1: Development and assessment of meso-scale NWP systems over Australia
Task 1.1 Test UM at ~2km
Jul 2010 – Oct 2010
Run Case studies run for test-bed
Report on case studies
Oct 2010
Task 1.2 Test UM+3dVAR at ~2km
Nov 2010 – Sep 2011
Case studies run for Sydney and/or Brisbane
Presentation of case studies
Mar 2011
Will have 5km and 1.5km models running over similar domain
“Grey Zone” project???
WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

25. A Grey Lunch Some Australian perspectives on the morning discussion ……
ECMWF global resolution = Australian-Meso resolution
Martin’s global grey-zone is our Meso
UKV style “jump-across” grey-zone probably not feasible for us – Aus domain is too large
Conclusion – we should be supportive here
Nice words, or contribution?
Don’t currently have CRM/LES capability, nor world’s largest SC.
Possibilities ….
Do some of the simulations at the coarse-end (liase with UK?)
Contribute to some of the analysis
In-house
In collaboration with Uni-sector via ACCESS? (*)
WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

26. MBM (My Burridge Moment ……. with apologies to Dave)
Perhaps this is a uniquely Aussie affliction, but the R&D branch of the Australian “Operational Centre” is very different now to five years ago.
CAWCR has responsibility for both NWP & Climate R&D.
Already have UK-based unified systems for NWP & Climate, will slowly move to include RCM, SP, etc under this framework.
An NWP scientist who might have been deployed to, say, high-res AMIP, can now be deployed directly to, say, help tuning of the coupled system for CMIP5 – which of those activities has the higher profile?
Take home story: the “pitch” as to why an “operational centre” might want to join a project may vary significantly from OC to OC.
WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology