Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Modelling Activities at CAWCR, 2010: Selected.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Modelling Activities at CAWCR, 2010: Selected."— Presentation transcript:

1 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Modelling Activities at CAWCR, 2010: Selected Highlights Presenter: Gary Dietachmayer WGNE-26 Tokyo, October 2010

2 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010 Overview – riding instructions From your perspective do you seek or can you provide some advice to other groups? Is there a need for a workshop on an issue that WGNE should be involved in? Are there any new concrete projects that would benefit from a group effort that WGNE can support? We have shortened the time for each report to 20 minutes including questions ………….. This means that we do not expect a full report on what happened at your centre in the last 12 months.

3 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010 Overview New Supercomputers Drove some timelines CMIP5 related activities Major activity NWP (high-res) / SREP (grey-zone????)

4 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010 Supercomputer Combined bid with BoM and CSIRO/ANU/NCI Solar (BoM-HO) and vayu (ANU)

5 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010 Supercomputer (NEC SX6 – Solar)

6 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010 Supercomputer (vayu) 1492 nodes Each of two quad-core Nehalem CPUs Peak theoretical performance of approximately 140TFlops. Total of 37TB of RAM on compute nodes Approx 800 TBytes of usable global storage (very) loose division: Solar for NWP, (fraction of vayu, approx 1,000 cores) for climate

7 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010 Supercomputer (Solar timelines) Feb 09 Contract signed Jun 09 Phase One: Initial system delivery. ….. resolution of a number of HW/SW issues ….. 30 May 10 Phase Two: Full system ready for production use. 22 Jun 10 Oracle and BoM declare system ready for operational use. 29 Jun 10 NMOC declares the core ACCESS NWP suite operational on Solar. 31 Aug 10 NMOC software suites operational on Solar, NEC decommissioned.

8 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010 CMIP5/CLIMATE (models) CSIRO Mk3.6 AOGCM Existing global AOGCM CMIP5 long term only Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (C-CAM) Existing RCM – CAWCR is currently reviewing its RCM capability CORDEX Two African simulations One by McGregor at al., CAWCR/CSIRO One by collaborators at Univ. Pretoria. Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) New global AOGCM/ESM CMIP5 long term initially

9 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010 CMIP5 (CSIRO Mk3.6) Features: Atmosphere: Grid T63 (1.875 x 1.875); 18 levels - hybrid sigma,p Ocean: MOM2.2 code; Grid 0.94 NS x EW; 31 levels Interactive aerosol treatment – sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, mineral dust and sea salt Upgraded radiation scheme, upgraded (non-local) PBL scheme Anthropogenic aerosol impact on Australian rainfall Shadings indicate significance at the 5% and the 1% level

10 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010 Control500 yr1Completed 450/50070% delivered Historical AMIP Mid-Holocene100 yr1Completed 370/4000% delivered RCPs 2.6, 4.5, yrs remaining on E10 25% delivered 1%/yr CO 2 to 4x1401 AGCM + control SSTs301 AGCM + control SSTs + 4x CO x CO AGCM + control SSTs + AA301 AGCM + control SSTs + SA301 Historical (natural) Historical (GHGs) % delivered Historical (anthropogenic) % delivered Historical (all except ozone) % delivered Historical (all except AA) % delivered Historical (AA) % delivered Historical (Asian aerosols) Completed 60/156 0% delivered CMIP5 (CSIRO Mk3.6)

11 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010 CMIP5 (ACCESS coupled model) Atmosphere: UKMO UM Grid N96 (1.875 x 1.25); 38 levels Sea Ice: CICE 4 Grid 1.0 x 1.0, enhanced tropical; 46 levels Coupler: OASIS or 4 Ocean: AusCOM MOM 4p1 Land surface/carbon cycle: CABLE (Kowalczyk et al. 2006)+ CASA-CNP + LPJ dynamic vegetation

12 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010 CMIP5 (ACCESS coupled model) For AR5 timeline, AOGCM only Status Components coupled and numerous centennial-length simulations performed Now have two versions Atmosphere – HadGEM2 settings (much delayed) Atmosphere – proto-HadGEM3 settings + modifications Extensive evaluation underway Resources New NCI machine (share ~1,000 cores) 6 coupled simulations in parallel at 4 years per day should be adequate to perform core experiments in 4 months

13 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010 CMIP5 (ACCESS coupled model) Version with HadGEM2 atmosphere Version with proto-HadGEM3 atmosphere ΔSST (model – obs) (K)

14 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010 CMIP5 (ACCESS coupled model) Aims for AR5 (as early as possible 2011) All core long term CMIP5 simulations Consider select Tier 1 and Tier 2 if time Aims for CMIP5 subsequent to AR5 Tier 1 and Tier 2 expanded set ESM participation (include carbon cycle) CFMIP (?) Transpose-AMIP (?) Potential – CMIP5 short term decadal Potential – CMIP5 atmospheric chemistry Potential if Univ. collaboration – PMIP Model output Post-processing using CMOR; hosted at NCI ESG node/gateway

15 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010 ACCESS-NWP (APS0 timelines) APS0: Replicates legacy domains G – Global (80km) R – Regional (38km) T – Tropical (38km) A – Australian Meso (12km) C – City (5km) TC – Tropical Cyclone (12km) G, R, T went operational Sept/Oct 2009 on NEC-SX6 Solar declared operational June G, R, T, A – June-29 C operational – August-12 Last forecasts from GASP, LAPS, TXLAPS, MesoLAPS, MALAPS – August-17 NEC-SX6 shutdown – August-31 Not yet operational – TC, UM-based-Ozone

16 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010 ACCESS-NWP (APS0 G Verification)

17 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010 ACCESS-NWP (APS0 R/T/A verification) MSLP S1 (upper) RMS (middle) Bias (lower) Sep-2009 to Aug (R, T) Nov-2009 to Aug (A) Up to 72hr (R, T) Up to 48hr (A) LAPS, ACCESS-RTXLAPS, ACCESS-TMesoLAPS, MALAPS, ACCESS-A

18 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010 ACCESS-NWP (ACCESS-C) Tropical city systems (Brisbane, Sydney) crashed often in development Signal was localised run-away vertical-velocities Resistant to UM targeted-diffusion Were using UKMO 4km system parameters, but for now old model (v6.4) Grey zone issue??? Experiment with convective-settings Change CAPE-closure from Grid-box-area scaled to vertical-velocity dependent Stronger coupling between developing instability and stabilising action of parameterised convection

19 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010 ACCESS-NWP (ACCESS-C) Change stabilises and (probably) improves rainfall accuracy

20 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010 ACCESS-NWP (ACCESS-TC) ACCESS-TC close to complete Assim/Forecast components in place, number of promising studies for NH and SH TCs Post-processing/diagnostic tools being finalised Addition of TC-bogus to other ACCESS systems Should be ready for Aus TC season

21 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010 ACCESS-NWP (APS1 - Domains) APS0: Replicates legacy domains APS1: No o equivalent N320 global, some experimentation with N512 Meso domain now focussed on ACCESS-R replacement No TXLAPS equivalent ?? L50 -> L70

22 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010 ACCESS-NWP (APS1 – Model/Assim) Catch-up: move from UM 6.4 to 7.5 Re-examine model issues from APS0 Convection / Precipitation for C (and R-12 !), particularly in (semi) tropics Grey-Zone Project ??? (Very) large velocities at top-of-model in R, feeding into C. New/extended satellite data IASI, NOAA-19 ATOVS, GPS-RO, hourly AMVs SSMI/S out of scope for APS1, high-priority for APS2 Improved background error specification for ACCESS-R12

23 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010 SREP (Strategic Radar Enhancement Project) Catch-up CAWCR: Improve the underlying science to assimilate radar data into the Bureaus NWP models OEB: Install 4 new radars (Eventual) Replacement for city based systems 5km ~2km 00 & 12Z 00, 03, 06, 09, 12, …. Assimilation In situ obs & satellite Doppler winds Precipitation

24 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010 SREP (Strategic Radar Enhancement Project) Sydney 1.5km resolution test-bed. Focus is very much on DA, but some model development/evaluation is budgeted for. MilestonesDate Activity 1: Development and assessment of meso-scale NWP systems over Australia Task 1.1 Test UM at ~2km Jul 2010 – Oct 2010 Run Case studies run for test-bed Report on case studies Oct 2010 Task 1.2 Test UM+3dVAR at ~2km Nov 2010 – Sep 2011 Case studies run for Sydney and/or Brisbane Presentation of case studies Mar 2011 Will have 5km and 1.5km models running over similar domain Grey Zone project???

25 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010 A Grey Lunch Some Australian perspectives on the morning discussion …… ECMWF global resolution = Australian-Meso resolution Martins global grey-zone is our Meso UKV style jump-across grey-zone probably not feasible for us – Aus domain is too large Conclusion – we should be supportive here Nice words, or contribution? Dont currently have CRM/LES capability, nor worlds largest SC. Possibilities …. Do some of the simulations at the coarse-end (liase with UK?) Contribute to some of the analysis In-house In collaboration with Uni-sector via ACCESS? (*)

26 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-26, Tokyo, October 2010 MBM (My Burridge Moment ……. with apologies to Dave ) Perhaps this is a uniquely Aussie affliction, but the R&D branch of the Australian Operational Centre is very different now to five years ago. CAWCR has responsibility for both NWP & Climate R&D. Already have UK-based unified systems for NWP & Climate, will slowly move to include RCM, SP, etc under this framework. An NWP scientist who might have been deployed to, say, high-res AMIP, can now be deployed directly to, say, help tuning of the coupled system for CMIP5 – which of those activities has the higher profile? Take home story: the pitch as to why an operational centre might want to join a project may vary significantly from OC to OC.


Download ppt "The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Modelling Activities at CAWCR, 2010: Selected."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google