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© Crown copyright Met Office Met Office progress report Andy Brown WGNE, Tokyo, October 2010
© Crown copyright Met Office Outline Production systems Seasonal/climate Research issues Ocean-Atmosphere coupling Mid-level cloud Resolution and parametrization choices for convection-permitting models Scalability
© Crown copyright Met Office Met Office production systems
© Crown copyright Met Office DePreSys TIGGE ensemble GloSea4 MOGREPS-R ensemble Coupled atmos/ocean Earth System Timescale 36hrs48hrs5 days 15 days 6 months 10 years 30 years >100 years 1.5km 4km 12km 24km 40km 80km 150km 300km Complexity UKV UK4 NAE Global HadCM3 HadGEM1 HadGEM2 Global atmosphere-only Regional atmosphere-only HadGEM3-RA regional HadGEM3 Atmospheric grid length
© Crown copyright Met Office Operational NWP Models: Aug 2010 Global 25km 70L 4DVAR 60h forecast twice/day 144h forecast twice/day +24member EPS at 60km NAE 12km 70L 4DVAR 60h forecast 4 times per day +24member EPS at 18km UKV 1.5km 70L (variable resolution) 3DVAR 36h forecast 4 times per day
© Crown copyright Met Office Parallel Suite 22 : Nov 2009 NEW UK 1.5km Model NEW Seasonal Forecast Model based on HADGEM3 Global NWP Model to 70 Levels (as HADGEM3) Ensemble NWP Model to 60km (Global) and 18km (regional) Parallel Suite 23 : Mar 2010 Regional and Ensemble NWP Models to 70 Levels Global NWP Model to 25km Parallel Suite 24 : Jul 2010 NEW UK Air Quality Model with UKCA Chemistry PC2 cloud scheme to global NWP (as HADGEM3) Subgrid drainage shear parametrization to UK 1.5km model Parallel Suite 25 : Nov 2010 Global DA upgrades (N216; Covstats from EC ensemble) Seasonal forecast to L85 (troposphere as HADGEM3) Key Model Upgrades 2009-10
© Crown copyright Met Office Chief Scientist Julia Slingo Director of Technology Alan Dickinson Deputy Director, Climate Science & Head Partnerships Chris Gordon Deputy Director, Foundation Science Andy Brown Deputy Director, Weather Science Brian Golding Science Management Technology and IS Observational based research Parametrizations Global model development Dynamics research Data assimilation Satellite applications Regional NWP Ocean forecasting Verification, Products, Applications Understanding climate change Monthly to decadal prediction Earth system Oceans Impacts and adaptation
© Crown copyright Met Office Ocean-atmosphere coupling
© Crown copyright Met Office Coupled NWP research: Background International Workshop on Upper Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions on Weather and Climate Timescales held at the Met Office (Dec 2009): http://www.ncof.co.uk/Ocean-Atmosphere-Workshop-Dec-2009.html
© Crown copyright Met Office Coupled NWP research: Motivation Potential additional predictability/skill from representing air-sea physical coupling (MJO, diurnal cycle, TCs…) Quantify cost-benefit for NWP skill Tackle and improve coupled process errors at "source – leading to improvement of systematic errors and drifts in model predictions for longer timescales Transpose-CMIP Seamless prediction: more unified experimental design and model science from NWP through seasonal to climate prediction timescales Framework for developing and applying new coupled data assimilation techniques
© Crown copyright Met Office Coupled NWP research: Status 1.Coupled configuration (currently running in early research mode): HadGEM3 N216L85 (A), ORCA 0.25L50 (O), CICE 0.25 (I) 3-hourly coupling (ocean vertical resolution permits diurnal mixed layer) Initialisation. A: Op. NWP analyses, O: FOAM analyses, I: Climatology Boundary conditions: Climatological surface/soil parameters, ozone; specified aerosol concentrations (model climatology) Atmosphere diagnostics: merger of seasonal-to-climate packages, allowing assessment of processes, variability and teleconnections, plus NWP packages allowing assessment of forecast verification and skill Ocean diagnostics: Operational FOAM packages, designed to output a comprehensive set of fields to validate the ocean surface and water column 2.Parallel atmosphere-only and ocean-only control experiments to allow the impact of coupling on the development of process-based errors to be isolated A: forced with OSTIA SSTs + persisted anomaly O: forced with 3-hourly mean fluxes from the atmosphere only model
© Crown copyright Met Office Mid-level cloud
© Crown copyright Met Office Missing midlevel cloud Williams et al Illingworth et al. ISCCP analysisCloudnet
© Crown copyright Met Office km Composite cyclones Rainrate mm/day km
© Crown copyright Met Office Composite midlatitude cyclone km SW difference
© Crown copyright Met Office CONSTRAIN: Cold air outbreak 31 Jan 2010
© Crown copyright Met Office TOA SW from UKV and global Lack of mid-level cloud common to many models (NWP and climate) Some evidence for congestus and layer cloud issues Detailed studies with observations and high resolution models showing promise UKV global CERES
© Crown copyright Met Office Resolution and parametrization choices for convection- permitting models
© Crown copyright Met Office Current operational regional models Regional North Atlantic European (NAE) 12 km MOGREPS-R regional ensemble 18 km -> 12 km UK variable (UKV) resolution model 1.5 km Future - Develop a 1.5 km downscale ensemble system Issues: Choice of 1.5 km small ensemble cf coarser resolution larger ensemble What to do with convection? Convective-scale ensembles Nigel Roberts
© Crown copyright Met Office First case Hailstorm in Ottery Dramatic thunderstorm Very localised flash floods in Otter Valley Courtesy of Ken Mylne
© Crown copyright Met Office MOGREPS output 00 UTC 30/10/08 T+18 - selected members xx w 950 hPa Nigel Roberts Different frontal structure and positioning in each MOGREPS-R (and hence UKV) member Downscaling ensemble can add value
© Crown copyright Met Office 2.2 km compared to 1.5 km Focus of convection is moved from coastal strip to over the sea Nigel Roberts Number of pixels exceeding the extreme threshold 50mm in 6 hours from all 24 members Limited testing supports choice of small 1.5km ensemble xxx Thanks to Changgui Wang
© Crown copyright Met Office Convection closure 4km CAPE limited CAPE closure 1.5km No convection scheme Both models add significant value to coarser models (surface forcing; shower advection) Convection decisions based on case-studies / verification scores
© Crown copyright Met Office 12/10/00 flood event Peak rainfall rates within 60x60km squares over 12 hours 4km gridlength forecasts 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 mm/hour No convection scheme With convection scheme CAPE dependent Too high Too low Closer to radar 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 mm/hour 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 mm/hour Example of testing of existing 4km convection closure
© Crown copyright Met Office Convection closure 4km CAPE limited CAPE closure 1.5km No convection scheme Both models add significant value to coarser models (surface forcing; shower advection) Convection decisions based on case-studies / verification scores Role for idealized work to supplement case study / verification work (metrics need care)? Relevance to global mid-level cloud issues?
© Crown copyright Met Office Scalability
© Crown copyright Met Office UM Scalability Cores Speedup
© Crown copyright Met Office Global Model Scalability Problems Most problems due to global lat-long grid ADI preconditioner for Helmholtz solver Advection communications and polar re-mapping Polar filtering Constant pole requirement ENDGAME dynamics expected to help Change to polar grid structure Ultimately expect to need to move away from lat-long I/O problems being addressed by I/O servers
Recent & planned developments to the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS) Richard Swinbank, Warren Tennant, Sarah Beare,
© Crown copyright Met Office Implementation of a new dynamical core in the Met Office Unified Model Andy Brown, Director of Science.
NCAS Unified Model Introduction Part 1a: Overview of the UM system University of Reading, 3-5 December 2014.
Part 1a: Overview of the UM system
© European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Operational and research activities at ECMWF now and in the future Sarah Keeley Education Officer.
© Crown copyright Met Office Challenges for weather and climate prediction – a UK perspective Nigel Wood, Dynamics Research, UK Met Office.
Page 1 Developments in regional DA Oct 2007 © Crown copyright 2007 Mark Naylor, Bruce Macpherson, Richard Renshaw, Gareth Dow Data Assimilation and Ensembles,
Introduction to data assimilation in meteorology Pierre Brousseau, Ludovic Auger ATMO 08,Alghero, september 2008.
© Crown copyright Met Office WGNE activities and future directions Andy Brown.
© Crown copyright Met Office Predictability and systematic error growth in Met Office MJO predictions Ann Shelly, Nick Savage & Sean Milton, UK Met Office.
Page 1© Crown copyright 2004 SRNWP Lead Centre Report on Data Assimilation 2005 for EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting October 2005, Ljubljana, Slovenia.
Trials of a 1km Version of the Unified Model for Short Range Forecasting of Convective Events Humphrey Lean, Susan Ballard, Peter Clark, Mark Dixon, Zhihong.
Research Needs for Decadal to Centennial Climate Prediction: From observations to modelling Julia Slingo, Met Office, Exeter, UK & V. Ramaswamy. GFDL,
Page 1 NAE 4DVAR Oct 2006 © Crown copyright 2006 Mark Naylor Data Assimilation, NWP NAE 4D-Var – Testing and Issues EWGLAM/SRNWP meeting Zurich 9 th -12.
© University of Reading Richard Allan Department of Meteorology, University of Reading Thanks to: Jim Haywood and Malcolm.
© Crown copyright Met Office Data Assimilation Developments at the Met Office Recent operational changes, and plans Andrew Lorenc, DAOS, Montreal, August.
Challenge and directions for improving GCM simulations of the monsoon Julia Slingo and Andrew Turner.
© Crown copyright 2007 A fully resolved stratosphere: Impact on seasonal forecasting Alberto Arribas Monthly-to-Decadal area, Met Office Hadley Centre.
1 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Carol Roadnight, Peter Clark Met Office, JCMM Halliwell Representing convection in convective scale NWP models : An idealised.
Page 1© Crown copyright 2004 Seasonal forecasting activities at the Met Office Long-range Forecasting Group, Hadley Centre Presenter: Richard Graham ECMWF.
Large-scale context for the UK floods in Summer 2007 Submitted to Weather, 14 May 2008 Mike Blackburn 1 John Methven 2 and Nigel Roberts 3 (1) National.
Page 1© Crown copyright 2007 Initial tendencies of cloud regimes in the Met Office Unified Model Keith Williams and Malcolm Brooks Met Office, Hadley Centre.
© Crown copyright Met Office Plans for Met Office contribution to SMOS+STORM Evolution James Cotton & Pete Francis, Satellite Applications, Met Office,
Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction David Anderson.
Page 1© Crown copyright 2004 Data Assimilation at the Met Office Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter.CTCD Workshop. 8 th Nov, 2005 Chris Jones.
The Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator The Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator Kamal Puri (ACCESS Group Leader)
Page 1 Andrew Lorenc WOAP 2006 © Crown copyright 2006 Andrew Lorenc Head of Data Assimilation & Ensembles Numerical Weather Prediction Met Office, UK Data.
1 JRA-55 the Japanese 55-year reanalysis project - status and plan - Climate Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency.
© Crown copyright Met Office Met Office dust forecasting Using the Met Office Unified Model™ David Walters: Manager Global Atmospheric Model Development,
Tuning and Validation of Ocean Mixed Layer Models David Acreman.
WCRP polar climate predictability initiative Vladimir Ryabinin
Page 1© Crown copyright Scale selective verification of precipitation forecasts Nigel Roberts and Humphrey Lean.
Regional Models Lake Victoria Model Prepared by C. Tubbs, P. Davies, Met Office UK Revised, delivered by P. Chen, WMO Secretariat SWFDP-Eastern Africa.
Page 1© Crown copyright 2006 Modelled & Observed Atmospheric Radiation Balance during the West African Dry Season. Sean Milton, Glenn Greed, Malcolm Brooks,
© Crown copyright Met Office Met Office Experiences with Convection Permitting Models Humphrey Lean Reading, UK Nowcasting Workshop,
Robin Hogan (with input from Anthony Illingworth, Keith Shine, Tony Slingo and Richard Allan) Clouds and climate.
© Crown copyright Met Office WGNE activities and future directions Andy Brown and Jean-Noël Thépaut (WGNE co-chairs)
ESSL Holland, CCSM Workshop 0606 Predicting the Earth System Across Scales: Both Ways Summary:Rationale Approach and Current Focus Improved Simulation.
The University of Reading Helen Dacre AMS 2010 Air Quality Forecasting using a Numerical Weather Prediction Model ETEX Surface Measurement Sites.
© Crown copyright Met Office UK report for GOVST Matt Martin GOVST-V, Beijing, October 2014.
Page 1 © Crown copyright 2005 ECMWF User Meeting, June 2006 Developments in the Use of Short and Medium-Range Ensembles at the Met Office Ken Mylne.
Moisture Transport in Baroclinic Waves Ian Boutle a, Stephen Belcher a, Bob Plant a Bob Beare b, Andy Brown c 24 April 2014.
The University of Reading Helen Dacre AGU Dec 2008 Boundary Layer Ventilation by Convection and Coastal Processes Helen Dacre, Sue Gray, Stephen Belcher.
Urban Modelling 1 03/2003 © Crown copyright Urban Scale NWP with the Met Office's Unified Model Peter Clark Mesoscale Modelling Group Met Office Joint.
NAME SWG th Annual NOAA Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop State College, Pennsylvania Oct. 28, 2005.
Performance of the MOGREPS Regional Ensemble
© Crown copyright Met Office Southern Ocean surface flux biases in GCMs Keith Williams, Alejandro Bodas-Salcedo & Patrick Hyder SOCRATES workshop 18/03/14.
Operational Numerical Forecasting on Tropical Cyclones Yuqing Wang International Pacific Research Center and Department of Meteorology University of Hawaii.
The Original TRMM Science Objectives An assessment 15 years after launch Christian Kummerow Colorado State University 4 th International TRMM/GPM Science.
NWP in the Met Office © Crown copyright 2006.
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