1. THE 2008 Federal Election: Context and Issues Prepared by: Donna Dasko, PhD Senior Vice President, Environics Research Group Ltd. October 30, 2008

2. 2008 Federal Election Report 2 Party Support – 2006 to 2008 Selected Environics polls Party Jan. 2006 election results June 5 to 30, 2007 Dec. 12, 2007 to Jan. 3, 2008 June 13 to July 5, 2008 Election called Aug. 29 to Sept. 2, 2008 Conservative 3637363538 Liberal 3028273028 NDP 17 19 Green Party 51113108 Bloc Qu é b é cois 117787 Other 1–*** * Less than one percent

3. 2008 Federal Election Report 3 The Campaign Context The “issueless” campaign What is the most important factor that will influence your vote? % Health care 10 Environment 9 Leadership 9 Economy 9 Party promises 8

4. 2008 Federal Election Report 4 Issues and Parties Which party is best able to handle health care? % Conservative 25 Liberal 25 NDP 23 Bloc Qu é b é cois 4 Green Party 1 No party best able to handle health care

5. 2008 Federal Election Report 5 Which party is best able to handle the environment? % Liberal 21 Conservative 20 NDP 20 Green Party 20 Issues and Parties No party best able to handle the environment

6. 2008 Federal Election Report 6 Best leader for prime minister? % Harper 39 Layton 15 Dion 13 Duceppe 4 May 3 Issues and Parties Conservatives had advantage on leadership

7. 2008 Federal Election Report 7 Which party is best able to handle the economy? % Conservative 41 Liberal 28 NDP 10 Bloc Qu é b é cois 4 Green Party 2 Issues and Parties Conservatives had advantage on the economy

8. 2008 Federal Election Report 8 The Conservative Advantage Satisfaction with the country Satisfied: 60 % Dissatisfied: 36 % Moderate record in government Satisfied: 47 % Dissatisfied: 50 % C ontinued …

9. 2008 Federal Election Report 9 The Conservative Advantage … continued Declining salience of health care as an issue Leadership Handling the economy

10. 2008 Federal Election Report 10 The Opposition Advantage The coming economic crisis (early campaign) and the actual economic crisis (late campaign) ? Worried about the economic situation C ontinued … October 1991 October 2007 Early Sept. 2008 Sept. 24 to Oct. 1 2008 Oct. 2 to Oct. 14 2008 Worried 8232485657 No worried 1767524342

11. 2008 Federal Election Report 11 The Opposition Advantage The rise of environment as an issue? Support Liberal carbon tax: 42 % Do Not support Liberal carbon tax: 51 % C ontinued …

12. 2008 Federal Election Report 12 The Opposition Advantage … c ontinued The “hidden agenda”? 2006 A Conservative government seen as having different policies from the previous Liberal government 2008 A Conservative majority seen as having similar policies and directions to the past two and a half years C ontinued …

13. 2008 Federal Election Report 13 The Afghanistan wedge issue? Approval of the mission lower than ever: 41 % But the Liberal/Conservative agreement effectively removed the issues from the election agenda Gaffes and mistakes? The Liberal “brand?” The Opposition Advantage … c ontinued

14. 2008 Federal Election Report 14 (Before debate) Ending September 28/29 NanosEkosDecima Conservative 373436 Liberal 262726 NDP 201918 Bloc Qu é b é cois 1099 Green Party 81011 Daily Polls

15. 2008 Federal Election Report 15 To October 6/7 NanosEkosDecima Conservative 34 32 Liberal 3125 NDP 182021 Bloc Qu é b é cois 11108 Green Party 61112 Daily Polls

16. 2008 Federal Election Report 16 To October 12/13 NanosEkosDecimaVote Conservative 34.234.83437.6 Liberal 26.726.42526.2 NDP 21.419.41918.2 Bloc Qu é b é cois 9.59.81110 Green Party 8.29.696.8 Daily Polls

17. 2008 Federal Election Report 17 The Winners …….. in rank order Mr. Harper/ Conservatives Pollsters Mr. Layton/New Democrats Mr. Duceppe/ the Bloc Ms. May/Green Party Conservatives in Quebec Environment as an issue Mr. Dion/Liberals

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