1. Ó 2008, Aptima, Inc. 1 www.aptima.com Boston ▪ DC ▪ Dayton © 2008, Aptima, Inc. Improving the Display of River and Flash Flood Predictions HIC Conference Lawrence Wolpert, Jared Freeman, Yuri Levchuk, Tom Aten, Daniel Serfaty Mary Mullusky, Pedro Restrepo, Donna Page July 30, 2008

2. Ó 2008, Aptima, Inc. 2 Overview  Grant #: NA07NWS4620015  Customer: NWS  Client Team –Pedro Restrepo –Mary Mullusky –Donna Page  Project Start: –October 5, 2007  Project Complete: –May 31, 2008  Grant Amount: –$60,748 Project Stages 1. Knowledge Acquisition 2.Uncertainty Modeling 3. Visual Display Design

3. Ó 2008, Aptima, Inc. 3 Task 1: Knowledge Acquisition through Interviews and Group Discussions  Participants –2 Hydrologists –6 Emergency Managers –2 Red Cross Disaster Coordinators –Flood Evacuation Shelter Operator –Dam Operator –2 Fly Fishermen –3 Kayakers –TV Weather Reporter –6 NWS Employees Interviews conducted either in person or by phone

4. Ó 2008, Aptima, Inc. 4 Deliverables from Task 1: Stakeholder Profiles Job Role: Emergency Manager  Key Tasks  Goals/Objectives  Events/Decisions/Actions  Key Risks & Mitigation Strategies  Data Requirements  Social Interactions  Knowledge & Skills  Beliefs & Values Modeling Task: Model uncertainty in - environmental data - NWS models - Users Visual display design task: Develop visualization techniques and displays to convey critical information

5. Ó 2008, Aptima, Inc. 5 Task 2: Uncertainty Model  Purpose –Identify the sources/types of uncertainty related to predicting, communicating, and acting upon flood events. –Identify ways to factor uncertainty estimates into the decision-making processes of each community of interest to improve overall quality and efficiency of outcomes. –Determine what each community of interest needs to know about the uncertainty that exists to assess potential risks and choose a course of action.  Method –Analytical investigation and integration of uncertainty research from multiple disciplines.  Probability theory  Categorization theory  Perception theory  Deliverables –Description of the model of uncertainty and how it can be used to enhance decision-making.

6. Ó 2008, Aptima, Inc. 6 Overview of Uncertainty Model

7. Ó 2008, Aptima, Inc. 7 Components of a Mental Model for EMs  Flood events  Contingency events  Scenarios  Impact of flooding  Courses of action (COA)

8. Ó 2008, Aptima, Inc. 8 High-value information items for EMs, implied by our model  Flood precursor signatures –(time-stamped) patterns of events and conditions likely to cause the flooding –causes; conditions thresholds  Worst case envelop –(sets of) adverse events with sufficiently high likelihood of occurrence –effects; threats; triggers  Horizon of predictability and spread of envelop uncertainty –probabilistic uncertainty measures (e.g., predicted standard deviation) for how far into the future the confidence of predictions extends and how many deviations of the flooding scenario are likely (and should be accounted for in emergency planning)

9. Ó 2008, Aptima, Inc. 9 Model-Based Quality of Service metrics  Value captured –value to EMs of all the information presented at the NWS website  Opportunity cost or loss –value of available (or easily extractable) information not presented  Navigation overhead –overhead of dealing with information that potentially obscures navigation to more useful information  Salience of information –relevance of information at the NWS website to EM’s mission  Compactness of representation –conciseness of representation and associated cognitive load (for reviewing, analyzing, and memorizing the information)  Clarity –ease of detecting and understanding the key triggers (e.g., events) and their implications from the information presented

10. Ó 2008, Aptima, Inc. 10 Model-based Recommendations for Information Organization and Depiction  Add symbolically annotated anticipated weather events –visualize prospective flood scenarios –automate search for similar flood scenarios from historical data archives –present probable dynamics of predicted flood conditions via time-spaced geography-linked local weather event evolution maps  Depict likely scenarios – with resulting events –store local map images of past flood effects – time stamped –with overlaid markers for adverse effects –use “nearest close neighborhood” metrics of scenario similarities to pull up candidate scenarios from own histories and from those of other EMs  Combine horizon of predictability and spread of envelop uncertainty visualizations with icon representations of probable events and adverse weather conditions –Automate translating continuous uncertainty metrics (e.g., deviations, ensemble averages, etc.) into specific representative and worst-case discrete event scenarios

11. Ó 2008, Aptima, Inc. 11  2008, Aptima, Inc. 11  2008, Aptima, Inc. 11 Task 3: Visual Display Design  Support EMs’ decision making regarding courses of action. –Visualizations of river forecasts with uncertainty –Visualizations of “impact” of various flooding scenarios  Visualization of uncertainty model inputs for clear understanding of “why” predictions are what they are.  Allow for local knowledge to be incorporated into predictions  Fusion / organization of information for clear understanding of relationship to one another and enhanced orientation.

12. Ó 2008, Aptima, Inc. 12  2008, Aptima, Inc. 12  2008, Aptima, Inc. 12 Landmark Map  Ever present geographic depiction of current state of affairs  Enhanced ability to select desired information for presentation on the map  Increased saliency/access to relevant related information needed for accurate SA and decision making

13. Ó 2008, Aptima, Inc. 13  2008, Aptima, Inc. 13  2008, Aptima, Inc. 13 River Height/Flow Prediction with Uncertainty  Visual depiction of “river forecast” in terms of height / flow –Clear depiction of uncertainty with cone of uncertainty  Visualization of model parameters with ability of the EM to apply local knowledge.

14. Ó 2008, Aptima, Inc. 14  2008, Aptima, Inc. 14  2008, Aptima, Inc. 14 River Extent Prediction Visualizations  Visualization of river extent for given point selected in the river prediction of flow/height  Stage, Likelihood and Confidence of a selected point  Impact of given scenario shown (items affected)

15. Ó 2008, Aptima, Inc. 15  2008, Aptima, Inc. 15  2008, Aptima, Inc. 15 Interplay of Visualizations  Enhanced Fusion / organization of information for enhanced decision making –Clear understanding of relationship –Easy access to needed information for decision making

16. Ó 2008, Aptima, Inc. 16  2008, Aptima, Inc. 16  2008, Aptima, Inc. 16 Further Detail Regarding Flood’s Impact  Provide further understanding of implications of flood at a: –Global level –Individual variable level  Current and Future river impact predictions shown  Additional understanding provided through references to similar previous floods

17. National Weather Service NWS Next Steps Quantitatively assess Aptima’s User Interface with the upcoming customer satisfaction survey Present ideas to Ensemble Product Generation group as possible forecaster interface in CHPS/FEWS/XEFS Move some elements forward on the AHPS web pages 17