1. DAVID CHAPMAN

2. “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeating it” -- George Santayana (1863-1952) “The people are turbulent and changing, they seldom judge or determine right.” -- Alexander Hamilton (1755-1804) “The issue today is the same as it has been throughout all history, whether man shall be allowed to govern himself or be ruled by a small elite” -- Thomas Jefferson (1743-1826) 2 CYCLES and TRENDS

3. 3 Long Term Cycles Dewey & Dakin (54 Year Commodity Cycle) Kondratieff Kwave (54-60 Year Supercycle) CYCLES and TRENDS

4. 4 Edward Dewey And Edward Dakin ● 54 Year Cycle ● Their book charted prices from 1790 for wholesale prices that coincided with peaks and valleys for commodity prices ● Cycle measured peak to trough with roughly 27 years to peak and 27 years to trough CYCLES and TRENDS

5. 5 DEWEY & DAKIN PREDICTIONS Year of Peak Prediction – Dewey & Dakin Actual Peak Peak War 1755 *Seven Years War aka French Indian Wars (Britain/France) 18171817 (1810)War of 1812 18711868 (1864)Civil War 19251920WW1 19791980/81 (1974/75)Vietnam 2033War on Terror? WW3? CYCLES and TRENDS

6. 6 Year of Trough Prediction – Dewy & Dakin Actual Trough Trough War 1729/1730 *French Colonies and Great Britain 17901790 (1783)American Revolution 18441842 (1837)Mexican American War 19521949 (1932 and 1947)WW2 20062001Cold War/Gulf Wars/Balkan Wars CYCLES and TRENDS DEWEY & DAKIN PREDICTIONS

7. 7 Kondratieff Cycle or Kwave ● Russian Economist under Stalin ● 50-60/65 year cycle ● Can be controversial ● Not widely accepted ● Ian Gordon – Long Wave Analyst www.longwavegroup.com www.longwavegroup.com CYCLES and TRENDS

8. 8 The K-Wave Cycles 1789-Present U.S.A. SPRING (EXPANSION) SUMMER ( RECESSION )AUTUMN ( PLATEAU )WINTER ( DEPRESSION ) 1784-1802 (American Revolution) 1803-1816 (War of 1812) 1817-1834 (Era of Good Feelings) 1835-1844 (Mexican American War) 1845-1858 (Mexican American War) 1859-1864 (Civil War) 1864-1874 (Reconstruction) 1875-1896 (Indian Wars) 1896-1907 (Spanish American War) 1908-1920 (WW1)1921-1929 (Roaring 20’s) 1930-1948 (WW2) 1949-1966 (Korean War, Suez Crisis, Cuban Missile Crisis, Cold War) 1966-1981 (Vietnam War) 1982-2000 (The Information Age) 2000-? (War on Terror? WW3?) CYCLES and TRENDS

9. 9 Kondratieff PhaseBest InvestmentsWorst InvestmentsCharacteristics Spring (Expansion) Inflationary Growth Stocks, Real Estate and Commodities slowly rising BondsLow inflation, healthy banking system, growing savings Summer (Recession) Stagflation Commodities, Gold and Real Estate Stocks and BondsInflation, debt growing (corporate), stagnate growth Autumn (Plateau) Deflationary Growth Stocks, Bonds and Real Estate Commodities and Gold Debt levels soar (consumer), wealth disparity, stock market euphoria, low inflation Winter (Depression) Deflation Gold, Cash and Commodities in late cycle Stocks, Real Estate, Bonds (until end of credit crunch then they fall again) Deflation, debt collapse, trade conflicts, social upheaval

10. CYCLES and TRENDS 10

11. 11 CYCLES and TRENDS

12. 12 Other Cycles Other Cycles ● Kuznets – 15-25 Year Real Estate/ Infrastructure ● Juglar – 7-11 Year Business Cycle ● Kitchin – 3-5 Year Inventory Cycle

13. 13 CYCLES and TRENDS

14. 14 CYCLES and TRENDS

15. 15

16. 16 CYCLES and TRENDS

17. 17 ● Gold ● Silver ● Oil ● Natural Gas Commodity Cycles

18. CYCLES and TRENDS 18

19. CYCLES and TRENDS 19

20. 20 CYCLES and TRENDS

21. 21 CYCLES and TRENDS

22. 22 CYCLES and TRENDS

23. 23 CYCLES and TRENDS ● South Sea Bubble ● Roaring 20’s Bubble ● Tokyo Nikkei Bubble ● NASDAQ Bubble ● Housing Bubble Bubbles And Panics

24. 24 CYCLES and TRENDS

25. 25 CYCLES and TRENDS

26. 26

27. CYCLES and TRENDS 27

28. 28 CYCLES and TRENDS

29. 29 CYCLES and TRENDS

30. 30 Intermarket Technical Analysis ● Dow/Gold ● Dow/Oil ● Oil/Gold ● Gold/Silver

31. 31 CYCLES and TRENDS

32. 32 CYCLES and TRENDS

33. 33 CYCLES and TRENDS

34. 34 CYCLES and TRENDS

35. 35 SOME INTERESTING CHARTS

36. 36 CYCLES and TRENDS

37. 37 CYCLES and TRENDS

38. 38 CYCLES and TRENDS

39. 39 CYCLES and TRENDS

40. 40 SOME ECONOMICS

41. 41 Declining Consumer Confidence

42. Rising Household Debt Declining Savings 42

43. Rising Household Debt as % of Disposable Income 43

44. Declining Household Net Worth as % of GDP 44

45. Declining % of Homeowner Equity 45

46. Record High Total US Debt as % of GDP 46

47. Real Estate Decline 47

48. More Mortgage Resets to Come I 48

49. More Mortgage Resets to Come II 49

50. 50 Lots of Housing Supply on the Market

51. 51 Housing Prices have taken a Pounding

52. 52 And there is More to Come

53. 53 Owner’s Equity Keeps Declining

54. 54 Owner’s are not Getting as Much Out of their Homes

55. 55 Home Ownership is in Decline

56. 56 But the Houses just kept getting Bigger

57. Growing Commercial Vacancy Rate 57

58. Rising Real Unemployment 58

59. Declining Real Earnings 59

60. Declining Automobile Competitiveness 60

61. Declining GDP 61

62. Rising International Trade Deficits 62

63. Growing Control of US Assets 63

64. Explosive CDS Exposure 64

65. Explosive Derivatives Growth 65

66. Record Federal Reserve Liabilities 66

67. Bubble in Financial Assets 67

68. High Real Inflation 68

69. Rising Long Term Inflation 69

70. Expanding Money Supply 70

71. Growing Global Money Supply 71

72. Growing Federal Obligations 72

73. Total Government Debt Government Sector DebtDebt Federal Government Sector10 Trillion State & Local Government Sector2 Trillion Un-funded Social Security contingent liabilities looking forward7 Trillion Un-funded Medicare contingent liabilities, estimated37 Trillion Total Above Government Debt$56 Trillion 73

74. Exploding Federal Budget Deficits 74

75. Escalating Federal Spending 75

76. Gold, Silver and Platinum 119% 196% 225% 76

77. Thank You David Chapman www.davidchapman.com 77