1. Will recent scientific findings redirect policy? Øystein Hov 1 and Peringe Grennfelt 2 1) Norwegian Meteorological Institute and EMEP MSCW 2) IVL

2. Issues which are likely to change environmental policy direction the coupling between atmospheric composition change air and climate change (both directions) the biogeochemical cycling of nitrogen incl land use changes air quality and health Globalisation of the economy – transportation and energy use, “greying of Europe” Population growth, urbanisation – exposure and deposition on different scales in space and time

3. Schär et al., 2004, Nature 427, 332-336

7. RCM climate change scenario of current (CTRL 1961–90) and future (SCEN 2071–2100) conditions. a, b, distribution of summer T northern Switzerland for CTRL and SCEN, c, T for SCEN–CTR, d, Change in variability expressed as relative change in standard deviation of JJA means ((SCEN– CTRL)/CTRL, %). Copied from Schär et al., 2004.

8. Climate change feedbacks on atmospheric composition can be sorted according to emission regulators (both anthropogenic and biogenic, including demography, shift in seasonal temperatures and the effect on energy consumption, plant and forest species, atmosphere-ocean interaction) transport regulators (wind, convection, mixing properties in the ABL) transformation regulators (rh, q, cloud cover and type, T, albedo and its effect on photolysis rates) removal regulators (precipitation frequency and amount, surface properties, bidirectional effects)

9. First order feedbacks from climate change on atmospheric composition? A first order feedback from climate change on atmospheric composition exists if: The parameter changes linked to climate change affect exposure or deposition by an amount which is comparable to the changes in exposure or deposition that follow technologically or economically feasible emission changes

10. Enhanced boundary layer ozone over central Europe summer 2003 Dry deposition - the most important ABL removal mechanism of ozone - is strongly reduced in drought conditions Enhanced emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds ABL breakup slower in high pressure cell and drought conditions Probably a ”sudden change” in ozone loss while ozone production is likely to increase in drought (biogenic VOC emissions up; NOx from combustion up; but OH perhaps down). Health implications

11. Deposition and emission Bi-directional nature of ammonia exchange Co-deposition of SO 2 and NH 3 In-canopy NO x processes Ozone fluxes: stomatal and external leaf uptake, closed at night and in drought Modelling surface – atmosphere exchange  = [NH 4 + ]/[H + ] c compensation  c  a air concentration cuticular resistance boundary layer resistance atmospheric resistance stomatal resistance  s stomatal compensation point ATMOSPHERE CANOPY In-canopy resistance  l soil compensation point canopy point From Biatex2, Eurotrac2 (Erisman et al 2003)

12. Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds: Annual Global Total Emission > 1.5 Gt Isoprene (C 5 H 8 ) 40% Methanol (CH 3 OH) 15% Acetaldehyde, acetone, ethene, ethanol,  -pinene: 1 to 7% each  -pinene, d-carene, hexenal, hexenol, hexenyl- acetate, propene, formaldehyde, hexanal, butanone, sabinene, limonene, methyl butenol, butene,  -carophylene,  - phellandrene, p-cymene, myrcene: 0.2 to 1% each Formic acid, acetic acid, ethane, toluene, camphene, terpinolene,  -terpinolene,  -thujene, cineole, ocimene,  -terpinene, bornyl acetate, camphor, piperitone, linalool, tricyclene: 0.04 to 0.2% each Various compounds may dominate annual emissions at specific locations From Alex Guenther, NCAR, at ILEAPS workshop Helsinki 2003 (from www)

13. Estimates of climate change feedback on atmospheric composition Summer ABL ozone a factor of 2 over Continental Europe? Biogenic emissions feedback 10%? Acid dep and eutrophication 10%? Summer PM a factor of 2?

14. Another climate – chemical change feedback: Fire-convection frequency (”Add fire- convection to volcanoes”) August 2003: Hundreds of boreal forest fires in Russia and Canada and in the temperate forests of the USA (210.000km2 in Russia burnt) Northern summer 1998 boreal zone fires in Russia and Canada with plume smoke entering the lower stratosphere residing till October Significant increase in frequency and severity of boreal fires predicted under climate change (longer fire seasons and drier conditions) Fromm and Bevilacqua, Atm.Env. 2004, 38, 163-165.

15. Biscuit and Tiller Fires in California and Oregon (08/14/02) – Courtesy of J. Descloitres

16. More lightning under climate change? The global surface source of NOx is about 40 MtN/a (50-50 anthropogenic and biogenic) Lightning source about 5 MtN/a (1-20 MtN/a range) Aircraft source 0.5-1 MtN/a

17. Issues which are likely to change environmental policy direction the coupling between atmospheric composition change air and climate change (both directions) the biogeochemical cycling of nitrogen incl land use changes air quality and health Globalisation of the economy – transportation and energy use, “greying of Europe” Population growth, urbanisation – exposure and deposition on different scales in space and time

18. Globalisation, transportation needs Shipping has gone up by 70% between 1984 and 2001 Air transport has increased yearly by between 5 and 10% since 1970. Air pollution emissions from these transport systems have only been controlled to a limited extent. Shipping hardly any control except some in limited areas, e.g. the North Sea and the Baltic. Ship emissions are today responsible for more than 10 percent of the global NOx emissions (perhaps as much as 20%). For Europe, shipping emissions now contribute significantly to the deposition of sulphur and nitrogen compounds in coastal areas and the downward trend in atmospheric deposition is slowing or has stopped

19. The Greying of Europe Q: Fraction of N, S emitted over Europe removed there

21. The trend in the global seaborne trade movement of dry cargo and oil since 1984 in million tonnes per year (20).

22. Ship tracks over the North Pacific Red: Visible reflectance Green: 3.7  m reflectance Blue: 11  m temperature

23. Ship Track Formation N~ 40 cm -3 W~ 0.30 g m -3 r e ~ 11.2 µm N~ 100 cm -3 W~ 0.75 g m -3 r e ~ 10.5 µm

24. The Greying of Europe. Tropospheric Trace Gases Observable by Satellite Nitrogen Dioxide: (requires separation from stratosphere) Formaldehyde Carbon Monoxide Jack Fishman, NASA, ESA-ESTEC presentation from www

25. Ratio of electricity consumption in January- March to July-September for each year 1990-2000 for the United Kingdom and Italy (36). Eurostat Energy Database (August 2004).

26. Issues which are likely to change environmental policy direction the coupling between atmospheric composition change air and climate change (both directions) the biogeochemical cycling of nitrogen incl land use changes air quality and health Globalisation of the economy – transportation and energy use, “greying of Europe” Population growth, urbanisation – exposure and deposition on different scales in space and time

27. Megacity growth trends (ES&T Feature).

28. Example: O 3 calculated with EURAD for BERLIOZ (July 20, 1998, 14 UTC). Urban air quality assessment Multi-scale character Regional-to-urban coupling Source: Memmesheimer Moussiopoulos, Eurotrac2 final event 2003

29. Issues which are likely to change environmental policy direction the coupling between atmospheric composition change air and climate change (both directions) the biogeochemical cycling of nitrogen incl land use changes air quality and health Globalisation of the economy – transportation and energy use, “greying of Europe” Population growth, urbanisation – exposure and deposition on different scales in space and time

30. Environment and health Source: CERC Moussiopoulos, Eurotrac2 final event 2003

31. Issues which are likely to change environmental policy direction the coupling between atmospheric composition change air and climate change (both directions) the biogeochemical cycling of nitrogen incl land use changes air quality and health Globalisation of the economy – transportation and energy use, “greying of Europe” Population growth, urbanisation – exposure and deposition on different scales in space and time

32. Atmosphere Terrestrial Ecosystems Aquatic Ecosystems Human Activities Groundwater Effects Surface water Effects Coastal Effects Stratospheric Effects Energy Production PM & Visibility Effects Ozone Effects Agroecosystem Effects NH x Food Production NO x Crop Animal People (Food; Fiber) Soil NO 3 The Nitrogen Cascade NH 3 --Indicates denitrification potential N org Forests & Grassland Soil Ocean Effects N2ON2O GH Effects N2ON2O

33. Issues which are likely to change environmental policy direction the coupling between atmospheric composition change air and climate change (both directions) the biogeochemical cycling of nitrogen incl land use changes air quality and health Globalisation of the economy – transportation and energy use, “greying of Europe” Population growth, urbanisation – exposure and deposition on different scales in space and time

34. THE END