Presentation on theme: "AREP GAW Section 7 – Chemical Aspects of Air Pollution 1."— Presentation transcript:
AREP GAW Section 7 – Chemical Aspects of Air Pollution 1
AREP GAW Section 7 – Chemical Aspects of Air Pollution 2 Lessons for Weather Forecasting…. End-to-end forecast system tuned for end users
AREP GAW Section 7 – Chemical Aspects of Air Pollution 3 Pollution Levels are determined by emission regulators (both anthropogenic and biogenic, including demography, shift in seasonal temperatures and the effect on energy consumption, plant and forest species, atmosphere-ocean interaction) transport regulators (wind, convection, mixing properties in the ABL) transformation regulators (rh, q, cloud cover and type, T, albedo and its effect on photolysis rates) removal regulators (precipitation frequency and amount, surface properties, bidirectional effects)
AREP GAW Section 7 – Chemical Aspects of Air Pollution 4 Focus in CTM-modelling vs NWP Parameter CTM NWP Wind speedStagnant conditionsHigh wind speeds Wind directionEssential for S-R- relationships Not so important PrecipitationLength of dry periods; low intensity rain Heavy rain TemperatureHigh temperatures – fast reactions and large biogenic emissions High and low temperatures, freezing CloudsType, location, lifetimeCloud cover ConvectionBL ventilationPrecipitation τ BL,res, H mix ImportantNot so important Specific humidityImportant for [OH]Not so important Ground surfaceImportant for q, deposition, biogenic emissions Important for fluxes of heat, momentum, moisture
AREP GAW Section 7 – Chemical Aspects of Air Pollution 5 Medium range weather forecasting – what is the right time length for air quality forecasts ? Acidification of soils and waters: ecosystems, seasons to multiannual Terrestrial eutrophication: ecosystems, seasonal to multiannual Marine eutrophication: ecosystems, seasonal to multiannual Ground level ozone - human health: hours and days Ground level ozone - forests and crops: growing season Particles - human health: hours to long term Health and ecotoxic effects - heavy metals: long term Health and ecotoxic effects – POPs: long term Regional climate change: years Regional UV change: years + day-to-day variability Air quality problems can in principle be abated (atmospheric sustainability) The traditional NWP forecast focus (10d) not so relevant
AREP GAW Section 7 – Chemical Aspects of Air Pollution 6 Observational Needs Chemical Meteorological Modeling Needs Weather prediction Chemical weather and air quality prediction Air Quality & Related Products Improved Forecasts Guidelines Pilot Projects Users Health Agriculture Environmental Public Emergency Response Capacity Building Workshops Training Assimilation Dissemination Coordination Education Demonstrati on GURME Tasks For The Strategic Planning Period 2008-2015
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