1. Climate Change: A National and Marine Perspective David Woolf National Oceanography Centre, Southampton

2. Outline Global/Regional Warming and Sea Level Rise –Temperature Change –Sea level Change Changes in Weather Patterns –Changes in Occurrence –Changes in Wave Heights THC Collapse –Ocean Circulation –Temperature Change –Sea Level Change Summary

4. Global Sea Level Rise

5. Changes in Weather Patterns

6. Our Variable Winters: The NAO Strong influence on European Climate Not necessarily connected with Global Change Definite influence on many surface parameters

7. Variability in Wintertime Wave Climate Variations in wave height coherent over large distances in response to major modes of atmospheric variability North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO East Atlantic Pattern, EAP NAO EAP

8. Variability in Weather Patterns Future Climate Changes can be expressed as changes in main patterns, e.g. North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO East Atlantic Pattern, EAP NAO predicted to go positive

9. THC Collapse?

10. Slowing of Atlantic conveyor: ~30% After Bryden et al (Nature, 2005)

11. Combined effect of Greenhouse Gases and THC Collapse

12. Sea Level Rise with THC Collapse

13. Summary Global Warming is Real But the detail is uncertain. Expect the Unexpected Probable outcomes include sea level rise and an increase in storminess. Thus affecting Coastal Defences Offshore Engineering Renewable Energy