1. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE Proposed list of CC state and impact indicators Jelle van Minnen (RIVM) in cooperation with: Markus Erhard (PIK) & Thomas Voigt (UBA) ETC/ACC-Workshop Copenhagen 22/23 Nov. 2001 Proposed list of CC state and impact indicators Jelle van Minnen (RIVM) in cooperation with: Markus Erhard (PIK) & Thomas Voigt (UBA) ETC/ACC-Workshop Copenhagen 22/23 Nov. 2001

2. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE ContentsContents wIntroduction wIndicators categoriescategories selection criteriaselection criteria indicator listindicator list wSummary/conclusion wIntroduction wIndicators categoriescategories selection criteriaselection criteria indicator listindicator list wSummary/conclusion

3. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE Why indicators in ETC/ACC wIdentification of CC state and impact indicators is needed for reporting (e.g. under EU 6th EAP, Signals 2002 report) wFeasibility study is needed on CC indicators wTo support the process of Integrated Environment Assessment wIdentification of CC state and impact indicators is needed for reporting (e.g. under EU 6th EAP, Signals 2002 report) wFeasibility study is needed on CC indicators wTo support the process of Integrated Environment Assessment

4. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE Why indicators in ETC/ACC ETC/ACC Implementation plan: wIdentification of CC state and impact indicators is needed for reporting (e.g. under EU 6th EAP, Signals 2002 report) wFeasibility study is needed on CC indicators ETC/ACC Implementation plan: wIdentification of CC state and impact indicators is needed for reporting (e.g. under EU 6th EAP, Signals 2002 report) wFeasibility study is needed on CC indicators Especially existing work How ??

5. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE ExampleExample

6. Criteria for Indicators wAccessible/attractive to the eye wCorrect to interpret wRepresentative (issue, area) wRegularly updated wReference value wInternational comparable wScientifically sound wConsensus on data validity/ methods wAppropriate data sets (e.g. length) wSensitive to CC w(Related to policy process) w(Applicable in assessments) wAccessible/attractive to the eye wCorrect to interpret wRepresentative (issue, area) wRegularly updated wReference value wInternational comparable wScientifically sound wConsensus on data validity/ methods wAppropriate data sets (e.g. length) wSensitive to CC w(Related to policy process) w(Applicable in assessments) EEA

7. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE Indicator evaluation Indicator evaluation A) Core set indicator, available in the short term B) Core set indicator, suitable on medium term C) Core set indicator, suitable on long term D) Potentially suitable core set (additional analysis needed) E) Unclear/soft indicator (affected by many other factors/ data not sufficient) data not sufficient) F) Not suitable as indicator A) Core set indicator, available in the short term B) Core set indicator, suitable on medium term C) Core set indicator, suitable on long term D) Potentially suitable core set (additional analysis needed) E) Unclear/soft indicator (affected by many other factors/ data not sufficient) data not sufficient) F) Not suitable as indicator

8. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE Indicator categories 1) Climate and Atmosphere 2) Cryosphere 3) Soils and Resources 4) Agriculture and Forestry 5) Ecosystems and Biodiversity 6) Hydrology and Water resources 7) Marine Environment and Coastal Zones 8) Economy and Infrastructure 9) Human Health 1) Climate and Atmosphere 2) Cryosphere 3) Soils and Resources 4) Agriculture and Forestry 5) Ecosystems and Biodiversity 6) Hydrology and Water resources 7) Marine Environment and Coastal Zones 8) Economy and Infrastructure 9) Human Health

9. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE Proposed indicators Proposed indicators Climate & atmosphere Core set indicators (categories A,B,C) wTemperature change wRate of temperature change wPrecipitation wSnow cover wClimate indices Other indicators (categories D,E) wLightning frequency, shrinking of stratosphere, changes in cloudiness Climate & atmosphere Core set indicators (categories A,B,C) wTemperature change wRate of temperature change wPrecipitation wSnow cover wClimate indices Other indicators (categories D,E) wLightning frequency, shrinking of stratosphere, changes in cloudiness

10. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE European annual mean temperature deviations 1850-2000 -1.50 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 1850185518601865187018751880188518901895190019051910191519201925193019351940194519501955196019651970197519801985199019952000 Difference from average 1960 - 1990 annual temperature ( o C) Yearly deviation from 1961-90 normal mean 10 Year Trend, Gaussian filtered Example: Temperature in Europe

11. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE Proposed indicators (II) Proposed indicators (II) Cryosphere Core set indicators wextend & mass glaciers wArctic sea ice wPermafrost (temperature profiles) Other indicators wIce break-up arctic coastal zones Cryosphere Core set indicators wextend & mass glaciers wArctic sea ice wPermafrost (temperature profiles) Other indicators wIce break-up arctic coastal zones

12. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE Example: Change in arctic sea ice extent Source: Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

13. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE Proposed indicators (III) Proposed indicators (III) Soils and land resources Core set indicators wCarbon sequestration in vegetation and soils Other indicators wSoil degradation, soil moisture Soils and land resources Core set indicators wCarbon sequestration in vegetation and soils Other indicators wSoil degradation, soil moisture

14. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE Source: Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

15. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE Proposed indicators (IV) Proposed indicators (IV) Agriculture and forestry Core set indicators wYield trends of important crop types wTrends in forest growth wShift of tree lines Other indicators wPests and diseases, disturbance regimes, forest composition Agriculture and forestry Core set indicators wYield trends of important crop types wTrends in forest growth wShift of tree lines Other indicators wPests and diseases, disturbance regimes, forest composition

16. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE Example: Changes in Crop yield

17. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE Proposed indicators (V) Proposed indicators (V) Ecosystems and biodiversity Core set indicators wPhenology/growing season length wArrival date of birds wEgg-laying dates wEcosystem composition Other indicators wDisturbances, seasonal changes (e.g. insects) Ecosystems and biodiversity Core set indicators wPhenology/growing season length wArrival date of birds wEgg-laying dates wEcosystem composition Other indicators wDisturbances, seasonal changes (e.g. insects)

18. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE Example: Change in LGP 1982-1991 Myneni et al 1999

19. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE Proposed indicators (VI) Proposed indicators (VI) Hydrology and water resources Core set indicators wIrrigation water demand wRiver temperature wWater scarcity index Other indicators wRiver discharge, flooding frequency, groundwater level, temperature profiles of inland lakes Hydrology and water resources Core set indicators wIrrigation water demand wRiver temperature wWater scarcity index Other indicators wRiver discharge, flooding frequency, groundwater level, temperature profiles of inland lakes

20. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE Proposed indicators (VII) Proposed indicators (VII) Marine environment and coastal zones Core set indicators wSea (surface) temperature wStorm surges wSea level rise wThermohaline circulation Other indicators wShoreline retreat, fishery & aquaculture productivity Marine environment and coastal zones Core set indicators wSea (surface) temperature wStorm surges wSea level rise wThermohaline circulation Other indicators wShoreline retreat, fishery & aquaculture productivity

21. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

22. Proposed indicators (VIII) Proposed indicators (VIII) Economy and infrastructure Core set indicators wInsurance wElectricity, gas & water consumption Other indicators wTourism Economy and infrastructure Core set indicators wInsurance wElectricity, gas & water consumption Other indicators wTourism

23. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE Proposed indicators (IX) Proposed indicators (IX) Human health Core set indicators Other indicators in broad set wTropospheric ozone impacts, mortality due to heat waves & freezing periods, allergies, vector and water-borne diseases Human health Core set indicators Other indicators in broad set wTropospheric ozone impacts, mortality due to heat waves & freezing periods, allergies, vector and water-borne diseases

24. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE Summary & conclusions wETC-ACC indicator data set developed for reporting purposes & IEA wIndicator data set fulfils EEA & other criteria wCore data set for all 9 categories: – 3 indicators category A, –10 category B, – 8 category C, –23 category D wETC-ACC indicator data set developed for reporting purposes & IEA wIndicator data set fulfils EEA & other criteria wCore data set for all 9 categories: – 3 indicators category A, –10 category B, – 8 category C, –23 category D

25. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE Thank you for your attention!!! Time for discussion dinner