1. Assessing the Value of U.S. Army International Activities Jefferson P. Marquis August 31, 2004 21 ISMOR Conference

2. Arroyo Center What Are Army International Activities? Army International Activities (AIA) make up a subset of security cooperation or military engagement –They encompass all non-combat activities involving foreign military and government officials –They include Army staff talks, equipment sales and training, multinational exercises and materiel technical cooperation Army conducts more international activities than other services –But does not get much credit from the rest of DoD for its AIA efforts

3. Arroyo Center Foreign Militaries Whence Comes AIA Guidance and Funding? OSD SC Guidance Funding: CTR, WIF, etc. HQDA Guidance (AIAP) Funding: Title 10 COCOM TSC Strategy Funding: TCA Conduct Activities DOS Guidance Funding: Title 22, Other Countries DSCA Guidance Funding: FMS, FMF, IMET, etc. ASA(ALT) Guidance Funding: Title 10 Army Functional Commands Army Functional Commands Army Service Component Commands Conduct Activities Provide Security Assistance

4. Arroyo Center OSD Army Service Component Commands ASA(ALT) State Combatant Commands Army Functional Command Activities IN-COUNTRY Events Current AIA Assessment System PBB Criteria Country Assessments Army Functional Command Activities OSD SCG AIAP OSD SCG HQDA G-3 AIAP MOE DSCA Perform. Summary MOEs TBD

5. Arroyo Center Why Is the Army Interested in AIA Assessment? To meet Army, OSD, and (possibly) OMB metrics requirements To demonstrate how AIA contributes to Army and national security objectives To indicate which AIA operations must be changed to improve security cooperation outcomes To know the full range of AIA available to achieve Army and national goals To account for AIA personnel and funding, and suggest where AIA resources might be better employed To uncover barriers that hinder execution and success of AIA

6. Arroyo Center Three Phases of AIA Assessment Project Phase 1: Laying the conceptual foundation for AIAKSS (LAST YEAR) Phase 2: –Building AIAKSS –Testing AIAKSS Phase 3: Expanding and employing AIAKSS (NEXT YEAR?) (THIS YEAR)

7. Arroyo Center Phase One Products Developed a set of AIA Goals – the “ENDS” Developed categories to organize AIAs – the “WAYS” Developed output and outcome indicators to show linkages between WAYS and ENDS Designed a tool to collect data from AIA officials

8. Arroyo Center AIA Ways Professional education & training Military exercises Military-to-Military exchanges Military-to-Military contacts International support / Treaty Compliance Standing forums Materiel transfer (FMS) &Tech training RDT & E programs AIA Ends Bolster Assurance Promote Democracy Establish Relationships Improve Cooperation Promote Transformation Improve Interoperability Bolster Defense Capabilities Ensure Access

9. Arroyo Center Indicators Link WAYS to ENDS The Ends: (From AIAP, TAP, DPG, QDR, & NSS) The Ways: (From AIAP & TAP) Education & Training Exercises Exchanges Mil-to-Mil contacts International support Forums FMS+tech training RDT&E programs AccessTransform Establish Relations CooperationAssure Democracy & Stability Bolster Defense Capacities Inter- Operate Indicators

10. Arroyo Center Putting AIA Indicators in Context Way: Education and Training InputsActivitiesOutputsOutcomes Money & Manpower Classroom instruction, e.g., IMET End: Cooperation Number of Graduates Alumni Networks Indicators Socialization Criteria Exchange Criteria

11. Arroyo Center Measuring Effectiveness of AIA Is An Ongoing Process ActivitiesOutputsOutcomesEnds Do outputs produce desired outcomes? Do outcomes contribute to ends? Indicators Measures of Performance Measures of Effectiveness Inputs Do activities produce desired outputs? Do inputs support activities? 1. Has end been achieved? 2. If not, are we measuring the end correctly? 3. If so, what are the impediments to achieving the end?

12. Arroyo Center Phases of AIA Assessment Project Phase 1: Laying the conceptual foundation for AIAKSS (LAST YEAR) Phase 2: –Building AIAKSS –Testing AIAKSS Phase 3: Expanding and employing AIAKSS (NEXT YEAR) (THIS YEAR)

13. Arroyo Center AIAKSS Data Collection has Three Parts Part A – Background information on AIA –Program/Activity name, description, and regions/countries covered –Funding sources and value Part B – Output and Outcome info for assessment –Select and rank AIA Goals and Ways –Select and substantiate Output and Outcome indicators Part C – Challenges to Success –Report challenges that hinder success

14. Arroyo Center AIAKSS Will Provide Useful Data to Army Planners and Managers AIAKSS will be accessible from around the world via the NIPRNET (later SIPRNET) AIA data will be aggregated annually at the program and command levels and submitted to HQDA Users will be able to search for specific AIA program descriptions, resources, associations, measures and challenges AIAKSS will retain search parameters for future use and sharing, present data in graphical and text formats, and permit data to easily transferred to Word and PPT documents

15. Arroyo Center We Selected Three Diverse Cases To Test Assessment Approach and AIAKSS National Guard State Partnership Program (NGB SPP) Army Medical Department (AMEDD) Army South (USARSO)

16. Arroyo Center We Tested Part B With NGB SPP Officials in MN, MD, KS Approx. 500K #1 Way: Military Contacts #1 End: Establish Relations InputsActivitiesOutputsOutcomes State Contacts Number of Contacts Est’d New Points of Contact Brought New Countries Into Professional Network Rank of Contacts

17. Arroyo Center Phases of AIA Assessment Project Phase 1: Laying the conceptual foundation for AIAKSS (LAST YEAR) Phase 2: –Building AIAKSS –Testing AIAKSS Phase 3: Expanding and employing AIAKSS (NEXT YEAR) (THIS YEAR)

18. Arroyo Center We Hope to Use AIAKIS to Evaluate Army’s Progress in Multinational Force Compatibility This study would address four central questions: 1.Is the appropriate mix of AIA being used to build MFC? 2.What are the obstacles to building MFC and what might be done to overcome them? 3.Are the appropriate measures and data available to assess the effectiveness of AIA in building MFC? 4.What new kinds of measures might be used to assess MFC-related goals in the future? The results of this study would enable HQDA G-3 –To improve its policy guidance to Army officials charged with executing MFC-related international activities and –To make recommendations to higher-level DoD officials concerning the allocation of AIA resources so that they can better promote MFC goals

19. Arroyo Center Current AIAKSS Capabilities Could Be Expanded Goals + AIA CategoriesCountries FundingPrograms Region and Countries Outputs Outcomes Current AIAKSS ties funding to program Possible Future Enhancements: Link program assessments to countries Tie funding to countries Current Country Data: Where AIA programs operate AIA goals and Categories by country AIAKSS Assessment

20. Arroyo Center We Have Additional Issues to Resolve Which AIA programs should be assessed? Who should provide AIA program information? At what level of aggregation should the data be provided? How should measurement targets be set? Who should have access to AIA information?

21. Arroyo Center BACK-UP SLIDES

22. Arroyo Center Selection Criteria for Indicators Generally, we looked for indicators that would Leverage existing data and performance measures Reflect an activity’s strategic and political importance Provide a connection to AIA goals Specifically, we looked for Output indicators that are immediate results of AIA  Usually products of EXCHANGES that improve U.S.-foreign country ties in the near-term, e.g., graduates, visits, meetings Outcome indicators that are results or by-products of these exchanges  Usually derived from a SOCIALIZATION process involving changes in foreign perceptions about working together with the U.S. over the long- term, e.g., new capabilities, knowledge, relationships, standards

23. Arroyo Center NGB-IA Crystal City One SPP Coordinator per State NGB Test Case Is the Furthest Along Total SPP Coverage: 45 countries 39 states 3 territories (Puerto Rico, Guam, DC)

24. Arroyo Center Part A Data: Funding sources and value by “Activity” State GA KS MN TN MD UT TX NY Funding Sources CTR, MMF, TCA, Other TCA, CTR, IMET, JCTP TCA, MMF, Other TCA, MMF, WIF TCA, MMF, Other TCA, MMF, TX State TCA Total N/A 88k 525k 50k 500k 130k

25. Arroyo Center

27. Number of Contacts with Target Country Highest Rank of Contacts with Target Country Chosen Output and Outcome Indicators for Establish Relations and Military Contacts Contacts established institutional points of contact Contact prepared Host Nation for tactical peacekeeping ops Contacts drew foreign country into an existing formal or informal professional network OutputsOutcomes

28. Arroyo Center AIA Goals Are Embedded In OSD Security Cooperation Guidance BUILD DEFENSE RELATIONSHIPS THAT PROMOTE SPECIFIC U.S. INTERESTS  Bolster Assurance  Promote Democracy  Establish Relationships  Improve Cooperation DEVELOP ALLIED AND FRIENDLY MILITARY CAPABILITIES FOR SELF DEFENSE AND COALITION OPERATIONS  Promote Transformation  Improve Interoperability  Bolster Defense Capabilities PROVIDE U.S. FORCES WITH PEACETIME AND CONTINGENCY ACCESS AND EN ROUTE INFRASTRUCTURE  Ensure Access

29. Arroyo Center AIA Activity Categories Professional education & training Military exercises Military-to-Military exchanges Military-to-Military contacts International support / Treaty Compliance Standing forums Materiel transfer (FMS) & tech training RDT&E programs