1. Colombian Program On Technological And Industrial Foresight: Achievemens And Perspectives Javier Medina Vásquez Full Professor, Universidad del Valle Head of the National Program on Technological and Industrial Foresight Colciencias – Colombia Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impact on Policy and Decision-Making. IPTS, Seville (Spain), 28-29 September, 2006

2. 1. COLOMBIAN CONTEXT

3. Colombia: Foresight Trajectory Accummulation The country has a respected Foresight tradition and trajectory in Latin America Colombia is considered as a reference point for the Andean Zone and its social dynamic in Foresight is comparable to the leading countries in America and Europe. Results + 30 Plans for Territorial Development (Departaments + Municipialities) + 20 Strategic Plans for Universities 25 Regional Agendas of SC+T 10 Technological Exercises 18 Technological Exercises in action

4. Phases of the Colombian Process TRADITION AND TRAJECTORY (1970-1999) INCUBATION (2000-2002) FOCUS ON CAPABILITIES (2003-2004) STRATEGIC SECTORS 2005-2006

5. 2. Transition Focus 2005-2006 2003-2004 Development of national capacities in technological and industrial foresight 2005-2006 Orientation of national capacities in technological and industrial foresight for the development of strategic areas in science, technology and innovation. These areas should be applied to the knowledge economy

6. Future Vision Strategic sectors Strategic sectors Data base of Methods, case studies Data base of Methods, case studies Calls Agenda of Activities Agenda of Activities Training Sensibilitation WEB Site Platform Data Base Data Base Basic Components of the Program

7. Resources- Colciencias /SENA, Ley 344 Strategies of the National Program on Industrial and Technological Foresight Six exercises for new STI areas in Colciencias Four exercises for Excellence Centers of Colciencias Four exercises for Agricultural Productive Chains Two demonstrative exercises for Water & Energy Strategies Development of Nations Vision, in transition toward society and economy of knowledge Technological watch and foresight exercises Formation of Trainers & Social Appropriation of Foresight Knowledge Sensitivity Meetings International Seminars Analysis of Surroundings, Delphi Exercise of strategic sectors, Analysis of sector and territorial transformation, Scenarios & Strategies

8. 3. Benefits of the focus shift: Global Cooperation Instituto PREST (LIPSOR)-CNAM-Paris(LIPSOR)-CNAM-Paris World Futures Studies Federation Millenium Project United Nations University Millenium Project United Nations University Georgia Tech George Washington University Iale Tecnología Triz XXI PREST: Ian Miles, Michel Keenan, Rafael Popper (2003-2005). (LIPSOR)-CNAM-Paris: Michel Godet (2005). WFSF: Fabienne Goux-Baudiment (2004). Millenium Project (UN): Jerome Glenn (2005-2006). Georgia Tech: Alan Porter (2006), George Washington University: William Halal (2003), Iale Tecnología: Pere Escorsa (2004-2005), Triz XXI: Fernando Palop, José Miguel Vicente (2005) PREST: Ian Miles, Michel Keenan, Rafael Popper (2003-2005). (LIPSOR)-CNAM-Paris: Michel Godet (2005). WFSF: Fabienne Goux-Baudiment (2004). Millenium Project (UN): Jerome Glenn (2005-2006). Georgia Tech: Alan Porter (2006), George Washington University: William Halal (2003), Iale Tecnología: Pere Escorsa (2004-2005), Triz XXI: Fernando Palop, José Miguel Vicente (2005)

9. Consolidation of Infrastructure: Unit for Technological Watch and Competitive Intelligence Analysis of patents and science-metric and semantic analysis Prospective Internet Remote Access and Safety

10. Broadening of portfolio of foresight methods and processes The development of skills has been generated from a process of accumulation of experiences, intellectual production, processes, and methodologies. The Program has progressively diversified its portfolio of services: Executes pilot exercises Strategic and demonstrative exercises Sensitivity meetings on foresight and technological watch designed for companies and conducted with local strategic partners Conferences by invitation only, and Seminars for the Formation of Trainers motivated by the Program Agenda. During the process new practices have been introduced

11. Development of twelve (12) different types of intervention in foresight Formulation of Strategic Re-orientation of a Program with governmental, institutional, and entrepreneurial participation: National Bio-technology Program Exploration of a sector and re-direction of a centre for technological development: CIDET – Electrical Sector Construction of a cluster: Export Health - Valle del Cauca Strategic Orientation of a sub-sector: Lacteous Sector-territorial Orientation: Tourism in Cartagena, Fique (palm fiber) in Santander Exploration of expert opinion: Colciencias Thematic Areas Development of skills and Agendas I+D+I: Excellence Centers Strategic Re-orientation of a Public Institution: Fomipyme Scenarios of international co-operation: (Andres Bello Accord) CAB – Scope 2015 Scenario strategies of transition to a Society and Economy based on Knowledge Demonstrative Exercises: Water (EPM-EAAB) National Plan on Science, Technology, and Innovation 2019

12. 4. Lessons 1st = Collective Learning State of art International Networks, Contacts Expertise and Pluralism Levels of incertitude, different traditions Support for the existent infrastructure Convergent Facts Seminaries, calls, anchor institutions, materials and adapted methodologies Data base of methods, case studies and tools Critical Mass, Diffussion

13. Current Priorities Construction of a long term vision of the country, and the place of science, technology and innovation in the knowledge economy Growing support toward strengthening works of the regions Training of Trainers Sustainability of priorities in thematic areas and/or productive sectors of strategic interest for Colombia Fortifying flows, regional clusters : Sector territorial exercises Construction of regional systems of innovation Universities and Centres as exchange agents multiplying the scope of the program

14. 5. Conclusions Tecnological and Industrial Forecast is an excellent institutional opportunity for reflecting on: The future of strategic sectors of the country The possibilities to transform the productive structure of the country and, The role of science and technology in such transformation processes

15. Conclusions Unstable environments, incertitudes and high level conflicts require greater use of foresight Such environments need the development and gathering of capacities as well as the elaboration of progressive learning exercises Technical profficiency sponsors colaboration. Learning is gained through international cooperation. We have established a wide synergy with international organizations Foresight is not about predicting!... It is about identifying alternatives. Colombia seeks future alternatives and better decisions!!

16. Bibliography Gómez Villasante, David & Bernal, Henry (2004) Plan of Joint Action in Science and Technology of the countries in the Andrés Bello Accord, Technical Commissions, Andrés Bello Accord, Bogotá. Medina Vásquez, Javier (2000) Function of long-term thought: action and institutional re- dimensioning of the ILPES, Notes from the ILPES, N. 46. Medina Vásquez, Javier (2001) Function of long-term thought: significant experiences at the global level, High-level Seminar on basic functions of planning and successful experiences, Latin American and Caribbean Institute of Economic and Social Planning, Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, Regional Planning Council, Santiago de Chile. Medina Vásquez, Javier (2005a) for a foresight for unstable, uncertain, and highly conflictive environments: The experience of the Colombian Program on Technological and Industrial Foresight. Conference Proceedings the Fistera Conference, IST at the Service of a Changing Europe by 2020: Learning from World Views, European Union - IPTS, 16 -17 June, Seville. Medina Vásquez, Javier (2005b) Technology with a future vision, in CAF meeting for competitiveness, Corporación Andina de Fomento, Caracas. Medina Vásquez, Javier & Ortegón, Edgar (1997) Foresight: Social construction of the future, Latin American Institute of Economic and Social Planning (ILPES) - Universidad del Valle, Cali. Medina Vásquez, Javier & Ortegón, Edgar (2006) Manual on Foresight and strategic decision: Theoretical Bases and instruments for Latin America and the Caribbean, Latin American Institute of Economic and Social Planning (ILPES), Santiago de Chile.

17. Bibliography Miles, Ian (2005) Foresight: a long breath path, in CAF meeting for competitiveness, Corporación Medina Vásquez, Javier & Rincón, Gladys (2006) Technological and industrial foresight: context, fundamentals, and applications, Colciencias–CAF, Bogotá. Medina Vásquez, Javier & Sánchez, Marcela (2006) Foresight and technological watch: integrated focuses, Colciencias, Bogotá (in process of being published). Miles, Ian & Popper, Rafael (2004) Recommendations to the Colombian NFP, PREST–Policy Research in Engineering, Science and Technology Institute of Innovation Research, Manchester Business School, The University of Manchester. National Planning Department (2003) Construction of a future for Colombia stemming from its territories, Memories of National Seminar, DNP – UNDP – ACCI – CAF, Bogotá. Popper, Rafael & Medina, Javier (2006) Foresight in Latin America. Case Studies: Brazil, Colombia, and Venezuela, in International Handbook on Foresight and Science Policy: Theory and Practice; PREST Institute - Edward Elgar (book coming soon). Sánchez, J. Marcela & Palop, Fernando (2002). Software tools for the practice of Competitive Intelligence in the business place. Ed. Triz XXI. Madrid.

18. Thank you! jmedina@colciencias.gov.co javiermedinav@telesat.com.co