1. Martin Rhisiart Cardiff Business School
Futures Workshop
Turku,
Scenario Building
Martin Rhisiart
Cardiff Business School

2. What are scenarios?
Scenarios are stories or narratives that portray what might happen, why it might happen, and with what consequences
Scenarios can be very powerful tools to contemplate the range of possible futures that could develop from the influence of key drivers, events and issues.

3. Definitions
“a tool for ordering one’s perceptions about alternative future environments in which one’s decisions might be played out” (Schwartz, 1996).

4. Pioneers
Herman Kahn, On Thermonuclear War (1960). RAND – public policy
Pierre Wack – Royal Dutch/Shell; The Gentle Art of Reperceiving” – corporate

5. Why use scenarios? Offer a non-linear and dynamic way of thinking
Ability to deal with complexity, to consider multiple variables simultaneously, and with ‘different interpretation’ over time
Counteracts the historical bias of quantitative forecasting approaches
Challenge assumptions

6. Why use scenarios? (II)
“Scenario thinking, by setting discussions in a time frame beyond their current assignment and beyond facts and forecasts, allows for a discussion with less defensive behaviour and a more shared sense of purpose” (Ringland, 2002)

7. Why use scenarios? (III)
“Within Shell, I think the imperative is to use this tool to gain deeper insights into our global business environment and to achieve the cultural change that is at the heart of our Group strategy.  We face real challenges in the future, we will all need to be able to respond to changing circumstances and make informed and rigorous judgements about our decisions: these scenarios and methodology will help us to do that better.”
Jeroen van der Veer (2005), in global scenarios report (to 2025)

8. Epistemological basis
Work of neuro-biologists suggests that humans are natural scenario-building animals – ability to tell stories about ourselves in the future; cognitive link to speech capacity in the brain

9. Objectives and main uses
Development of strategy and policy – organisational/spatial
Heuristic device – ‘re-perceiving’ – in organisational change
Stimulate critical thinking, challenge assumptions – within organisations, the general population

10. Timescale
Varies according to organisational needs, question addressed and themes covered; generally 3-5, 10, 20, even 50 years, e.g. medium-longer term
CIA, Global Trends (2015)
Shell, Energy needs, choices and possibilities (2050)

11. Synergy with other tools
Scenario building often makes use of other tools, e.g. forecasting/ quantitative; expert opinion; stakeholder opinions etc)

12. Benefits of using scenarios
Thinking “outside in” – big, external forces
Creating common language and understanding – working across disciplines, departments etc
Organisational alignment to vision
Develop group of people with ability to think strategically

13. Methodology and implementation
Several scenario building methodologies have been developed
Implementation procedure cited here is a common approach, developed by Schwartz (1996) and Ringland (2002)

14. Implementation steps Step 1: Identify the focal issue or decision
Step 2: Key forces in the local environment (microenvironment)
Step 3: Driving forces (macro environment)
Step 4: Rank by importance and uncertainty

15. Implementation steps Step 5: Selecting scenario logics
Social fragmentation
Digital diffusion
Digital desert
Techno-atomisation
Non-digital isolation
Digital cohesion
Non-digital benevolence
New Solidarity

16. Implementation steps Step 6: Fleshing out the scenarios
Step 7: Implications
Step 8: Selection of leading indicators and signposts

17. Implementation procedure
Step 9: Feed the scenarios back to those consulted
Step 10: Discuss the strategic options
Step 11: Agree the implementation plan
Step 12: Publicise the scenarios

18. How many scenarios?
“Scenarios are not conceived of one at a time. You develop a range of two or three possible futures, allowing you to address an array of possibilities and rehearse your responses to each of them. At the same time, more than four scenarios tend to be too complex: you cannot keep track of their ramifications in your mind” (Schwartz)

19. Case studies 1. Border, Midland and Western Region, Ireland
2. Countryside Council for Wales