1. Future of Transport – Foresight as forward looking activity Claus Seibt AIT Foresight & Policy Development The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011

2. Foresight as Forward Looking Activity Structure Monstrousness in Foresight Hyp(e)theses in Foresight FTA to inform the Political Cases empirically looked at Interim conclusions

3. Foresight as Forward Looking Activity Monstrousness in Foresight I will use Derridas notion on the Monstrous in Future Research as starting point. This Monstrousness in Foresight/ FTA practice appears as avantgardism Hidden avantgardism (Alheit 2009) has a quasi-religious and enlighted face Avantgardism (elites) contradicts formal democracy (supports unplanned society)

4. Foresight as Forward Looking Activity Hyp(e)theses in Foresight Ongoing work with Hypotheses in Foresight, because empirical evidence is weak Hypotheses are Hype-Theses as well by private- and public administrations In forward looking activities (e.g. Modelling approaches) Hypes are in assumptions Modelling and Prognoses are scientifically smarter than dialogue approaches alone

5. Foresight as Forward Looking Activity Foresight to inform the Political The Political is the place where antagonisms and conflicts are negotiated (Chantal Mouffe) Policy in contrary is the platform to discuss among different stakeholder interests Foresight and forward looking activities schould inform the poltitical, not negotiate Poltitical negotiation schould stay at its particular place in democratic systems

6. Foresight as Forward Looking Activity Cases empirically looked at EU-TransVison Foresight (DG TREN) EU-GHG2050 Project (DG ENV) EU-FreightVision Europe (DG TREN) AT-Range of Foresights in Transport Others are still in the pipeline to understand how foresight results feed into policy activities – respectively how they are exploited to inform political action and policy initiatives

7. Foresight as Forward Looking Activity Interim Conclusions Differences and similarities are due to context and purpose of FTA exercises; FTA has due to its forward looking nature hidden avantgardism in consequence; Forward projection combined with dialogue approaches may help to stay on ground; FTA does consequently inform the political never coordinate and consens the political.