1. Consistent context scenarios: a new approach to ‘story and simulation’
The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011
Consistent context scenarios:
a new approach to ‘story and simulation’
Hannah Kosow
University of Stuttgart
ZIRN - Interdisciplinary Research Unit on
Risk Governance and Sustainable Technology Development

2. Content I. Introduction II. SAS: story and simulation
Consistent context scenarios: a new approach to ‘story and simulation’
Content
I. Introduction
II. SAS: story and simulation
ideal type and practice
strengths and weaknesses
III.‘CIBAS‘: cross-impact balance analysis and simulation
cross-impact balance analysis (CIB)
conceptual ideas on CIBAS
expected potential and limits
IV. Conclusion 2

3. Approaching futures of coupled human-environmental systems
Consistent context scenarios: a new approach to ‘story and simulation’
Approaching futures of coupled human-environmental systems
modeling and simulation
systems analysis
integrated modeling
combining numerical modeling with qualitative scenario techniques (SAS)
 used for scientific exploration and to inform public and political debates
 but: usefulness and credibility of SAS scenarios for „producer-users“ and „recipient-users“ (e.g. Parson 2008, Pulver/ VanDeveer 2009) ? 3

4. Consistent context scenarios: a new approach to ‘story and simulation’
Focus
Aims: to reflect current approaches and to discuss a new approach
Question: (If and) how could CIB be used within a new approach to SAS and what potential benefits and limits can we expect from ‘CIBAS’ (i.e. CIB And Simulation)?
Methods:
literature review
expert interviews
conceptual ideas and expectations on potential and limits of ‘CIBAS‘
(empirical exploration and evaluation of CIBAS via case studies) . 4

5. ‘Story And Simulation‘ (SAS) (Alcamo 2001, 2008)
Consistent context scenarios: a new approach to ‘story and simulation’
‘Story And Simulation‘ (SAS) (Alcamo 2001, 2008)
Basic idea: to explore futures of coupled human-natural systems by combining numerical simulation models with qualitative storylines
Central assumption: combination of ‘qualitative’ with ‘quantitative’ scenario approaches benefits from the advantages of both (Alcamo 2008: 124; Kemp-Benedict 2004:1; Winterscheid 2007: 54). 5

6. product: qualitative and quantitative scenarios
Consistent context scenarios: a new approach to story and simulation’
SAS: ideal type
iterative process
story
(creative scenario technique)
quantification
simulation (numerical modeling)
refinement
product: qualitative and quantitative scenarios
Source: own representation based on Alcamo 2001, 2008 6

7. SAS: practice prototype studies Emission Scenarios (SRES) (IPCC 2000)
Consistent context scenarios: a new approach to ‘story and simulation’
SAS: practice
prototype studies
Emission Scenarios (SRES) (IPCC 2000)
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) (Carpenter et al. 2005)
World Water Visions (Gallopin/ Rijsbersman 2000)
Global Environmental Outlook GEO-4 (UNEP 2007)
 SAS covers a variety of designs combining numerical modeling with qualitative scenario techniques. 7

8. SAS: strenghts use of scenario concept in its primary sense
Consistent context scenarios: a new approach to ‘story and simulation’
SAS: strenghts
use of scenario concept in its primary sense
representation of uncertainty of social contexts
integration of qualitative information
inclusion of variety (of knowledge and of participants) possible 8

9. Consistent context scenarios: a new approach to ‘story and simulation’
SAS: weaknesses
methodological imbalance: formal and systematic modeling vs. creative-narrative scenario technique
‘promise of consistency’ seems difficult to hold
limited reproducibility
ridden with prerequisites 9

10. Cross-impact balance analysis (CIB) (Weimer-Jehle 2006)
Consistent context scenarios: a new approach to ‘story and simulation’
Cross-impact balance analysis (CIB) (Weimer-Jehle 2006)
Example of a CIB matrix
qualitative but systematic form of systems analysis
based on expert judgments of interactions of system elements
balance algorithm to determine consistent network configurations
applied as qualitative scenario technique in various fields
analysis via SzenarioWizard or with pen and paper  10

11. Some conceptual ideas on ‘CIBAS‘
Consistent context scenarios: a new approach to ‘story and simulation’
Some conceptual ideas on ‘CIBAS‘
‘CIB instead or in addition to Intuitive Logics (IL)’
type ‘consistent context scenarios’
detail, nuance, creativity
consistent context assumptions IL
CIB
numerical
modeling
precise, systematic & transparent approach
simulation results
product: qualitative and quantitative scenarios 11

12. CIBAS: expected potential
Consistent context scenarios: a new approach to ‘‘story and simulation’
CIBAS: expected potential
moderates the methodological imbalance of SAS by its systematic and semi-formalized approach
assures the internal consistency of the qualitative scenarios via CIB
supports the reproducibility of the scenario process (not of the result) by explicitly documenting underlying mental models including assumptions on interrelations 12

13. CIBAS: expected limits
Consistent context scenarios: a new approach to ‘story and simulation’
CIBAS: expected limits
is ridden with many of the same prerequisites as SAS, the translation of verbal into numerical statements remains a challenge, e.g.
possibly tends to overemphasize causal relationships 13

14. Consistent context scenarios: a new approach to ‘story and simulation’
Conclusion
CIBAS…
could build on the strengths of SAS and balance some of its weaknesses
might enhance the usefulness and the credibility of SAS processes
Future work
develop a conceptual framework on SAS processes and variants
explore CIBAS empirically: two case studies have already started 14

15. Ideas for further case studies are very welcome!
Consistent context scenarios: a new approach to ‘story and simulation’
Ideas for further case studies are very welcome!
Thank you 15