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HIV/AIDS Estimation and Projections: Overview of Methods and Activities.

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Presentation on theme: "HIV/AIDS Estimation and Projections: Overview of Methods and Activities."— Presentation transcript:

1 HIV/AIDS Estimation and Projections: Overview of Methods and Activities

2 Increased Need for Credible HIV/AIDS Estimates l Advocacy: There are xx many infected. YY million have died, and we/you havent done enough. l Planning: Xx millions need treatment. Yy need outreach programmes. Relative numbers in geographic areas. Resource needs in-country and globally. l Monitoring: progress towards targets. E.g. prevalence reduction, denominators for ART treatment and PMTCT.

3 UNAIDS/WHO Schedule for Dissemination of Estimates l November 2003: publication of regional estimates (World AIDS Day): need final estimates in September l June 2004: publication of country estimates (report on the global HIV/AIDS epidemic): need final estimates by February

4 Classification of HIV/AIDS Epidemics l Low-level: no group has prevalence >5% l Concentrated: prevalence among pregnant women below 1% in urban areas, but some groups at high risk have prevalence >5% l Generalised: prevalence among pregnant women consistently over 1%

5 Overview for Low-level/Concentrated Epidemics Surveillance data and size estimates for HRG and LRP Spreadsheet Adult HIV Prevalence UN Population Divisions Population estimates Epidemiology assumptions Spectrum PLWHA New Infections AIDS Deaths

6 Calculating HIV Prevalence in Low- level/Concentrated Epidemics l Prevalence estimates are based primarily on surveillance data collected from IDU, SW, MSM, (STI clinics), (mobile groups), (women attending antenatal clinics) l Calculation of number of infected needs estimate of size of each group as an input.

7 Overview for Generalised Epidemics Surveillance data from ANC EPP Adult HIV Prevalence UN Population Divisions Population estimates Epidemiology assumptions Spectrum PLWHA New Infections AIDS Deaths

8 Calculating HIV Prevalence in Generalised Epidemics l Prevalence estimates are based primarily on surveillance data collected from women attending antenatal clinics l Assumed that prevalence among pregnant women years sampled at ANC is broadly similar to prevalence among men and women years in the community.

9 Projection Page in EPP

10 EPP Model Parameters t0t0 f0f0 r

11 Generating numbers of PLWHA, incidence and mortality Adult HIV Prevalence UN Population Divisions Population estimates Epidemiology assumptions Spectrum PLWHA New Infections AIDS Deaths

12 Outputs from Spectrum, used for HIV/AIDS estimates l Estimates of prevalence in males and females (using female- male ratio over time), in children and adults (using age prevalence pattern over time, fertility assumptions, and MTCT assumptions) l Estimates of incidence: based on the prevalence curve and mortality assumptions l Mortality for adults and children: based on the prevalence curve and mortality assumptions for adults and children

13 Projections l EPP can produce 5 year HIV prevalence projections for generalised epidemics l Longer term projections need more sophisticated model structure, and additional assumptions l Spectrum: projects populations; generates prevalence, incidence, mortality

14 Development of Methods l Based on recommendations of the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections l Incorporates latest research findings l Implemented in software on a regular basis

15 Training Workshops Schedule l Africa: and April (Zimbabwe); May (Benin) l Asia: and June (Bangkok) l LAC: 4-6 and 9-11 June (Guatemala), and July (Jamaica) l Europe: 3-5 and 7-9 July (Croatia) l North Africa and Middle East: 9-11 (Tunis) and (Cairo) September


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