1. 1 From “Objective2” to “Regional Competitiveness and Employment” POLICY GUIDELINES FOR THE REGIONS ELIGIBLE TO THE NEW COMPETITIVENESS OBJECTIVE: A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS Alessandro Sterlacchini Polytechnic University of Marche Research team: Roberto Esposti (environment and risk prevention), Nicola Matteucci (innovation and structural indicators), Francesco Venturini (TLC/ICT and economic indicators) OPEN DAYS 2005 - Bruxelles, 12 October 2005

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3. 3 STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY Factor analysis to identify a synthetic indicator for each thematic area. Observations = NUTS2 Regions. Identification of three regional groups by cutting the statistical distribution of the synthetic indicator in two points (the mean minus and plus half of the standard deviation). Joint analysis (by means of cross tables) of thematic and economic performance classifications. Identification of the most critical situations in terms of innovation & knowledge economy, access to ICT/TLC & transport, environment & risk prevention.

4. 4 GENERAL ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Economic performance indicators GDP per capita (PPS): average 2000-2002 Rate of unemployment: average 2000-2002 Annual growth rate of GDP at constant prices: 1995-2002 Annual growth rate of GDP per worker: 1995-2002 Factor 1 (correlated with the rates of growth of GDP and GDP per worker) Factor 2 (correlated with GDP per capita and rate of unemployment) Composite indicator of economic performance = (fact2*2/3) + (fact1*1/3): a greater weight is attached to the level of economic performance. Taking the usual cut points in the composite indicator distribution, we identify three groups of regions with low, intermediate and high economic performance.

5. 5 COMPOSITE INDICATOR OF ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE

6. 6 Innovation & knowledge economy Total R&D expenditures on GDP: average 1995-2002 Total EPO applications per million inhabitants: average 1995-2002 Share of employment in high-tech manufacturing sectors: average 1995- 2003 Share of employment in high-tech and knowledge-intensive service sectors:average 1995-2003 Share of population aged 25-64 with tertiary education: average 2000- 2001 Share of turnover due to products new to the firm: average 1996-98 ONLY ONE FACTOR EMERGES: on the basis of its distribution we distinguish the regions with low, intermediate and high innovation & knowledge potential.

7. 7 Joint analysis of economic performance and innovation: type and number of regions

8. 8 INNOVATION & KNOWLEDGE POTENTIAL AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE

9. 9 Access to transport Multimodal (road, rail, air) accessibility potential: 2001 Connectivity to transport terminals by car (1/hours): 2001 The accessibility indicator is a measure of the relative facility to reach other EU regions (and be reached from them) with different modes of transport. The connectivity indicator considers the time required to reach by car (starting from the centroid of each region) important transport nodes: thus, it is affected by the extent of secondary road networks. Identification of the regions with low, intermediate and high level of accessibility and connectivity. Joint analysis with economic performances: distinction between low performers, uncorrelated and strongly uncorrelated regions. All the others are classified as non problematic regions.

10. 10 ACCESS TO TRANSPORT (CONNECTIVITY/ACCESSIBILITY) AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE

11. 11 Environment and risk prevention Energy sustainability indicators Transportation impact indicators Natural and rural endowment indicators Risk prevention indicators Analysis of natural risk. Composite indicator extracted from:  Regional flood hazard potential: average 1996-2002.  Size of burnt areas/Total area: 2000.

12. 12 ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND NATURAL RISK