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MPU 2010:3 101215

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Figure 01. Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. The uncertainty bands for the repo rate are based on the ability of risk-adjusted market rates to forecast the future repo rate. This uncertainty band does not take into account the fact that there may be a lower bound for the repo rate.

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Figure 02. GDP with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note.The uncertainty band shows the band within which GDP growth is expected to be with a 50%, 75% and 90% probability. There is also uncertainty for the outcomes for GDP, as the National Accounts figures are revised several years after the preliminary publication.

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Figure 03. CPI with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The uncertainty band shows the band within which inflation is expected to be with a 50%, 75% and 90% probability.

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Figure 04. CPIF with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The uncertainty band shows the band within which inflation is expected to be with a 50%, 75% and 90% probability. The uncertainty regarding the CPIF forecast is based on the Riksbank's forecast errors for the CPIX during the period 1999 until the introduction of published CPIF forecasts in 2008, with an adjustment for the fact that the CPIF and the CPIX have varied to different degrees.

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Figure 05. GDP Quarterly changes in per cent, annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

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Figure 06. Unemployment Percentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Pre-1993 data has been spliced by the Riksbank. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast, 15-74 years.

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Figure 07. Labour force and number of employed Thousands, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Pre-1993 data has been spliced by the Riksbank. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast, 15-74 year.

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Figure 08. CPI, CPIF and CPIF excluding energy Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. CPIF is CPI with a fixed mortgage interest rate.

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Figure 09. Real repo rate Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. The real repo rate is calculated as an average of the Riksbank’s repo rate forecasts for the coming year minus the inflation forecast (CPIF) for the corresponding period.

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Figure 10. TCW-weighted exchange rate Index, 18.11.92 = 100 Source: The RiksbankNote. Outcome data are daily rates and forecasts are quarterly averages.

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Figure 11. Oil price, Brent crude USD per barrel Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank Note. Futures are calculated as a 15-day average. Outcomes represent monthly averages of spot prices.

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Figure 12. Development of GDP in different regions and countries Quarterly changes in per cent, annual rate, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

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Figure 13. GDP-gap and RU-indicator Percentage deviation from potential level and standard deviation Sources: Statisitcs Sweden and the Riksbank Note. GDP-gap (HP) refers to the deviation from trend in GDP calculated with a Hodric Prescott filter. The GDP gap (PF) refers to the deviation from trend in GDP calculated with a production funtion. The RU-indicator is normalized so that the mean value is zero and the standard deviation is 1.

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Figure 14. Hours gap Percentage deviation from potential level Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The hours gap (HP) refers to the deviation from trend in the number of hours worked calculated with a Hodrick Prescott-filter. The hours gap refers to the deviation in the number of hours worked from the Riksbank's assumed trend for the numbers of hours worked.

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Table A1. Repo rate forecast Per cent, quarterly average values Source: The Riksbank

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Table A2. Inflation, annual average Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. CPIF is CPI with fixed interest rate. HICP is an EU harmonised index of consumer prices which does not include household mortgage costs.

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Table A3. Summary of financial forecasts Annual average, per cent, unless otherwise specified Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank * Per cent of GDP

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Table A4. International conditions Annual percentage change Sources: Eurostat, IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, OECD and the Riksbank Note. The figures in parentheses indicate the global purchasing-power adjusted GDP-weights, according to the IMF. The Swedish export market index is calculated as a weighted average of the imports of the 15 countries which are the largest recipients of Swedish exports. They receive approximately 70 per cent of Swedish exports.

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Table A5. GDP by expenditure Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The figures show actual growth rates that have not been calendar-adjusted, unless otherwise stated. NA is the National Accounts. *Contribution to GDP growth, percentage points

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Table A6. Production and employment Annual percentage change, unless otherwise stated Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Potential hours refers to the long-term sustainable level for the number of hours worked. * Per cent of labour force

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Table A7. Wages and unit labour cost for the economy as a whole Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. NMO is the National Mediation Office’s short-term wage statistics and NA is the National Accounts. Labour cost per hour is defined as the sum of actual wages, collective charges and wage taxes divided by the seasonally adjusted total number of hours worked. Unit labour cost is defined as labour cost divided by seasonally adjusted value added at constant prices. * Contribution to the increase in labour costs, percentage points.

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Monetary Policy Update September 2012. Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. The uncertainty.

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