1. Leveraging Urbanization in South Asia
Pakistan Urban Forum
Karachi
January 10, 2014
Peter D. Ellis
Lead Urban Economist The World Bank

2. SAR Countries Still at Early Stage of Transformation
Least urbanized region in the world with low urban shares.
By 2030, 315 million people added to South Asia’s cities.
Urbanized share by Region (2011)
Latin America and the Caribbean
Europe and Central Africa
Middle East and North Africa
East Asia and Pacific
Sub-Saharan Africa
South Asia
Urban Share Growth Rate (%)
Source: WB staff estimates based on WUP-2011 data

3. High Concentration of Mega-cities
From 5 now to 9 in next 10 years
Lahore will be added
Source: Taubenbock et al (Feb 2012)

4. Strengthening of Agglomerations

5. Formation of a Transnational Mega-Agglomeration

6. Urbanization Process Urbanization City size and spatial structure
Connectivity
Access to markets
Urban planning
Land & affordable housing
Crime, Grime, Disease & Congestion
Productivity, Skills, Jobs & Innovation
Governance & finance
Accountability, basic services
Migration & Skills
Access to jobs
Outcomes
Prosperity
Poverty
Livability

7. Main Challenges to Urbanization
Access to markets
Access to land & housing
Access to basic services
Access to jobs
Governance & Financing
Arrangements which create correct incentives for efficient provision , & tackle issues of horizontal & vertical fragmentation
Connectivity
Hard & soft infrastructure improvements
Planning
Integrated land use & transportation planning which relaxes, rather than exacerbates, supply constraints
Skills & Migration
Agglomeration economies are facilitated by human capital accumulation & pull migration

8. Land Management is Critical to City Development
Urban planning uses greater granularity in zoning.
Fine-grained approach promoting mixed land-use.
Using land value to guide infrastructure investments.
Mumbai Metropolitan City
- 603 sqkm
Singapore
- 710 sqkm

9. Sprawl vs. Densification
New York City
Karachi

10. Using Zoning to Capture Property Value Gains
Manhattan
focus on transit nodes
select catalyst sites for piloting
Seoul
variations in FSI linked to location of metro stations and network of main streets
Mumbai
Increase proposed development charge from 8 to 15 % of property value
Expected revenue of Rs. 100,000 Crore (roughly US$ 16 billion) over 15 years

11. Pakistan’s Urban Corridor

12. Intensifying Around Key Urban Centers

13. Dominance of Karachi consistent with other Cities Across Asia
City/region
Population (2007)
City Pop/ national pop
City GRDP/ national GDP
Seoul
9,800,000
20.8%
33.0%
Bangkok
12,000,000
17.8%
35.0%
Kuala Lumpur
4,800,000
17.4%
36.0%
Manila
11,500,000
13.0%
47.0%
Karachi
16,000,000
8.0%
20.0%
Ho Chi Minh City
6,000,000
6.9%
24.0%
DKI Jakarta
9,000,000
4.1%
18.0%
Mumbai
16,400,000
1.3%
6.2%
Shanghai
2.9%
City is defined only as core only

14. However, Smaller Cities are Becoming
Medium-sized Cities
Note: Calculations from 1998 Census and UNWUP.

15. Large Cities Outperform Medium and Small Cities
Fastest population growth
Higher per capita incomes
Lower poverty rates
Bigger manufacturing shares
Largest concentration of high-tech firms

16. Informal Sector Very Dominant
Large informal sector: many low productivity firms
Low tax collection constrains public investment
Worse problem in smaller cities
Note: Calculations, from Pakistan Labor Force Survey

17. Need to connect medium and small cities to improve market potential
Source: Calculations based on 1998 census. Quintiles of market access

18. Critical Elements for Urban Transformation
Clearly articulated vision at national and city levels.
Identification and implementation of catalytic investments within city.
Detailed financing plan.
Extensive stakeholder consultation.

19. Pakistan is Well Positioned to Capture the Urban Dividend
What do Pakistan’s cities need to do in order to meet the demands of their growing populations?
How does the nationally articulated vision and strategy support city development?
How will the local government structure be reformed to allow cities to effectively manage their transformation?

20. Thank You! 20