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Dilip Ratha and Hans Timmer April 19, 2013 Development Prospects Group World Bank Washington, D.C. Outlook for Migration and Remittances 2013-15.

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Presentation on theme: "Dilip Ratha and Hans Timmer April 19, 2013 Development Prospects Group World Bank Washington, D.C. Outlook for Migration and Remittances 2013-15."— Presentation transcript:

1 Dilip Ratha and Hans Timmer April 19, 2013 Development Prospects Group World Bank Washington, D.C. Outlook for Migration and Remittances 2013-15

2 Outline  Outlook for migration and remittance flows: 2013-15  KNOMAD

3 Key messages on outlook  Remittance continue to grow; developing received $401 bn in 2012 ; expect $513 bn by 2015.  Remittance prices are not falling anymore, particularly in low volume corridors where remittance is more important.  Migration needs to feature in Post-MDGs

4 Remittances to developing countries to reach $401 bn in 2012 Source: Development Prospects Group, World Bank

5 Top remittance recipients in 2012 $ million, 2012e as % of GDP, 2011

6 Remittance flows to developing countries $ billion 20102011 2012e 2013f2014f2015f Developing countries 341380 401 427468515 East Asia and Pacific 95106 109 117130145 Europe and Central Asia 3741 40 434752 Latin America and Caribbean 5862 677381 Middle-East and North Africa 4143 49 525558 South Asia 8397 109 117127140 Sub-Saharan Africa 2930 31 333639 Growth rate Developing countries 8.0%11.5% 5.3% 6.7%9.5%10.2% East Asia and Pacific 10.9%12.3% 2.5% 7.1%11.2%11.7% Europe and Central Asia -0.1%13.5% -3.9% 6.9%10.5%11.4% Latin America and Caribbean 0.9%7.3% 0.9% 7.1%10.0%10.5% Middle-East and North Africa 20.9%6.1% 14.3% 5.1%5.7%6.3% South Asia 9.8%17.6% 12.3% 6.9%9.1%10.0% Sub-Saharan Africa 4.0%4.9%1.6%5.6%8.6%8.8%

7 Remittance growth moderates in 2012 in all regions, except MENA Source: Development Prospect Group, the World Bank

8 Russia: Oil prices continue to provide a cushion for remittances outflows from Russia Source: IMF Balance of Payments and Development Prospects Group, World Bank.

9 In the US, employment is recovering faster for migrant workers than for natives* Source: Current Population Survey *3-month moving averages

10 Demand for skilled migrant workers is picking up in the US Number of Days to reach H1-B visa cap

11 Migration is important for post 2015 development agenda  Migration affects development; and development affects migration.  Migrants, like those in the informal sector, should be included in MDG discussions  How might migration be featured in the Post-2015 Agenda? Reduce cost of migrating Protect the rights and safety of migrants Leverage migration for financing development

12 Remittance price is falling, but not as much in low volume corridors where remittance is more important Cost of sending $200 Source: World Bank Remittance Prices Worldwide database

13 Proposed US immigration reforms can impact remittance flows to developing countries  Proposals: ―Path to citizenship for unauthorized immigrants ―Employment verifications and increased border security ―Improving the process to admit future workers, including unskilled ones.  Increases remittance flows in the long run by improving migrants employment opportunity and access to finance.

14 Global Knowledge Partnership on Migration and Development (KNOMAD)

15  An open, inclusive, multidisciplinary knowledge partnership  To generate a menu of policy choices, based on analytical evidence and quality control through peer-review  A global public good that is also a learning process

16 Key Objectives of KNOMAD  generating and synthesizing knowledge on migration issues  generating a menu of policy choices based on multidisciplinary knowledge and evidence  providing technical assistance and capacity building to sending and receiving countries

17 Structure  Twelve thematic working groups and four cross- cutting themes  Supported by a small secretariat  Guided by an Advisory Committee  Contractual as well as voluntary contributions  Multi-donor trust fund at the World Bank

18 Thematic Working Groups Data High- skilled labor migration Lower- skilled labor migration Integration issues in host communities Policy and institution al coherence Migrant rights and social aspects Demography and migration Remittances Mobilizing other diaspora resources Environmental change and migration Internal migration Migration and security

19 Cross-cutting themes  Monitoring and Impact Evaluation  Capacity Building  Gender  Public perception and communication

20 Partnerships  International and regional agencies  Universities and research institutions  Think tanks  International Initiatives  Networks  Civil Society

21 Outputs  A menu of policy choices  Analytical research products  Policy briefs  Operational toolkits, fact books  Web-based anthologies, archives, blogs  A few pilot projects and capacity building activities

22 Timeline: Implementation begins today  Has been in inception phase (ends in April 2013)  Implementation phase (May 2013-Dec 2017)  Evaluation – 2016  Pilot projects – 2016-17  Exit strategy

23 Year 1: Some Activities  Stocktaking of data and literature to identify gaps  Organizing workshops and meetings  Identifying experts and peer reviewers  Developing a website and portal that is easy to use and accessible

24 Thank you

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