1. Demographic development in Estonia: main trends and outlook for the future Luule Sakkeus Allan Puur Leen Rahnu Estonian Institute for Population Studies, Tallinn University University of Latvia conference Section: Population Development and Demographic Policy Challenges Riga, Latvia, 11-12 February, 2014

2. Outline of the presentation  Different processes  Fertility, mortality, ageing  Population change  Different analytical perspectives  Trends since 1960, outook until 2050  Comparison with major regions of Europe  Period and cohort view  Native and foreign-origin population Please see population chapter in Estonian HD report 2012/2013 (http://www.kogu.ee/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/EIA2013_eng.pdf).http://www.kogu.ee/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/EIA2013_eng.pdf

3. 1. Fertility and family

4. Total fertility rate Estonia and major regions of Europe 1960-2011 Replacement level

5. Total fertility rate Estonia and EU-10 counrtries 1990-2011

6. Mean age at first birth Estonia and major regions of Europe 1960-2011 Shift from one group to another

7. The impact of tempo-distortion on observed period fertility rates Postponement of childbearing reduces observed period fertility Appropriate estimation methods were developed in the late 1990s John Bongaarts & GriffiihFeeney (1998). On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility. Population and Development Review. 24(2): 271–291.

8. The impact of tempo-distortion on period TFR Estonia 1955-2010

9. Estimates of cohort fertility Estonia, birth cohorts 1965-1985 Estimates were confirmed by 2011 census

10. Childbearing intentions Estonia, birth cohorts 1955-1984

11. Childbearing intentions EU25 countries, Eurobarometer 2006

12. Educational and ethnic differences in cohort fertility Replacement level

13. Proportion on non-marital births Estonia and major regions of Europe 1960-2011

14. Fertility: some conclusions  Estonia has featured below replacement fertility starting from cohorts born at the beginning of the 20th century; among native population, only cohorts born in the late 1950s and early 1960s have reached replacement level  Among foreign-origin population fertility has been ca 15% lower ever since cohorts born in the 1930s  Fertility has declined since the 1980s but the extent of decline differs significantly between the period and cohort perspective  Cohorts born in the mid-1970s will have completed fertility around 1,85 (ethnic Estonians slightly higher); period fertility measures are pushed downwards by fertility postponement that started in the early 1990s and is expected to continue until the 2020s  Education is negatively associated to completed fertility (highly educated as target group for family policies?)

15. 2. Mortality

16. Life expectancy at birth: women Estonia and major regions of Europe 1960-2011 Shift from one group to another 7 years 2-3 years 2011 female life expectancy 81,1 (Estonians 81,8)

17. Life expectancy at birth: men Estonia and major regions of Europe 1960-2011 2011 male life expectancy 71,2 (Estonians 72,4) Disadvantage 3-5 years 12-13 years 7 years

18. Infant mortality rate Estonia and major regions of Europe 1960-2011 Shift from one group to another Return shift?

19. Mortality: some conclusions  Estonia experienced a remarkably long period of mortality stagnation (from the 1960s to the 1990s)  Societal changes in the 1990s were accompanied by a dramatic upsurge in mortality rates that culminated in 1994  Since mid-1990s Estonia has experienced a relatively rapid improvement in mortality patterns; the main driving force behind the new trend is rapid reduction in cardiovascular mortality  In recent years, female life expectancy has been among the highest in Eastern Europe. It lags 2-3 years behind the average of Northern, Western and Southern Europe  Although rapid improvements are observed also for men, the disadvantage in life expectancy relative to Northern, Western and Southern Europe amounts to about 7 years  In infant mortality, the disadvatage has almost disappeared

20. 3. Ageing and population change

21. Proportion of 65+ population Estonia and major regions of Europe 1960-2011 Shift from one group to another Accelerated ageing

22. Population change Estonia and major regions of Europe 1960-2011 1960-1989: rapid growth + 364 thousands = + 30% 1990-2011: rapid decline - 276 thousands = -17,6% 2000-11: -78 thousands -5.7%

23. Population change: natural increase Estonia and major regions of Europe 1960-2011 1960-1989: + 168 thousands = + 14% 1990-2011: -80 thousands = - 5,1% 2000-11: -34 thousands = - 2.5%

24. Population change: net migration Estonia and major regions of Europe 1960-2011 1960-1989: + 196 thousands = + 16% 1990-2011: -196 thousands = - 12,4% 2000-11: -44 thousands = - 3,2%

25. Net migration rate 1960-2011: Estonia and major regions of Europe High immigration Return migration

26. Population change Estonians and other groups 1960-2011 1960-1989 Estonians +7.7% (NI +4.1%, NM 3.6%) Others +95.0% (NI 42.4%, NM 52.6%) 1990-2011 Estonians -6.4% (NI -3.7%, NM -2.7%) Others -35.6% (NI -7.3%, NM -28.8%) 2000-2011 Estonians -3.0% (NI -1.2%, NM -1.8%) Others -11.6% (NI -5.2%, NM -6.4%)

27. Population number Estonians and other groups 1960-2011 Estonians in 1959: 892 thousands Estonians in 2011: 902 thousands Estonians in 1989: 963 thousands Others in 1959: 304 thousands Others in 1989: 602 thousands Others in 2011: 392 thousands

28. Population change Estonia and countries of Europe 2000-2011

29. Ageing and population change: some conclusions  Following a prolonged period of supressed ageing, the proportion of elderly beging to increase rapidly, driven by combined effect of low fertility, return migration and large migrant cohorts reaching retirement age.  Since WWII population dynamics in Estonia has been driven excessively by migration. Until 1990, at least 4/5 of rapid growth was due to direct and indirect effects of migration, after 1990, the return migration made the most important single contribution to population dynamics.  The role of migration is highlighted by the comparison of native and foreign-origin population. In relative terms, in 2000-2011 the negative natural increase and negative net migration among exceeded foreign-origin population exceeded that among the native population about three times.

30. 4. Outlook for the future

31. Projected population number in 2050 Estonia in UN medium projections 1994-2010 Release of projection (updated every 2 years) thousands Too pessimistic (reflects return migration and very low fertility of the 1990s) Maybe too optimistic (base population overstated, very limited net migration, strong recovery of fertility)

32. Projected population number in 2050 Estonia and European countries, UN medium 2010 Estonia (TFR2050=1,96 or 1,64) Lithuania Latvia population decrease -8% medium -14% constant fertility

33. Projected proportion of 65+ in 2050 Estonia and European countries, UN medium 2010 Estonia 2010: 17.4% 2050: 24.7% or 25.4% Latvia Lithuania

34. Old-age dependency ratio 1950-2050 Estonia and regions of Europe, UN medium 2010 Adaptation: postponement of retirement education and retraining, productivity better health not too low fertility not too much emigration in long run 70+/20-69 70+/25-69

35. Outlook for the future: some conclusions  Several trends for next 30-40 years can be predicted with reasonable accuracy  As smaller cohorts born after 1990 will predominate reproductive age groups, the balance between deaths and births will inevitably become more negative. It is important to employ measures to support family formation and childbearing in these generations so that the gap between completed fertility and replacement level would be smaller  Population ageing will continue but with combined efforts of sustaining employment of older persons, retraining, improvements in health behaviour etc. it should be possible to cope with the challenges arising from ageing  Migration processes have become dynamics and more difficult to predict, introducing considerable uncertainty for the demographic outlook

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