1. R&D Budget Analysis and Article 15 Matt Hourihan July 11, 2013 For the AAAS Science and Human Rights Coalition AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Program http://www.aaas.org/spp/rd

2. The Main Challenge R&D budgeting tends to focus on inputs… When the real crux of the matter is outcomes

3. A very simple STI System Govt Policy, Funding & Priorities -Disciplines -Challenges -Programs -International Partnerships Human Scientific Capital Inspired by Jaffe, Analysis of Public Research, Industrial R&D, and Commercial Innovation, in Science of Science Policy: A Handbook, Stanford University Press, 2011 Human-Scale Outcomes -Health / Medicine -Nutrition -Energy Security -Safety -Economic Opportunity Labs, Universities -Basic, Applied, Development -Workforce Education Funding Creation & Delivery of Products / Services New Knowledge -Patents -Publications -Tacit knowledge

4. A very simple STI System Govt Policy, Funding & Priorities -Disciplines -Challenges -Programs -International Partnerships Human Scientific Capital Inspired by Jaffe, Analysis of Public Research, Industrial R&D, and Commercial Innovation, in Science of Science Policy: A Handbook, Stanford University Press, 2011 Human-Scale Outcomes -Health / Medicine -Nutrition -Energy Security -Safety -Economic Opportunity Labs, Universities -Basic, Applied, Development -Workforce Education Funding Creation & Delivery of Products / Services New Knowledge -Patents -Publications -Tacit knowledge

5. A very simple STI System Govt Policy, Funding & Priorities -Disciplines -Challenges -Programs -International Partnerships Human Scientific Capital Inspired by Jaffe, Analysis of Public Research, Industrial R&D, and Commercial Innovation, in Science of Science Policy: A Handbook, Stanford University Press, 2011 Human-Scale Outcomes -Health / Medicine -Nutrition -Energy Security -Safety -Economic Opportunity Labs, Universities -Basic, Applied, Development -Workforce Education Creation & Delivery of Products / Services New Knowledge -Patents -Publications -Tacit knowledge

6. Example: Energy Security StageGovt PrioritiesR&DProductionOutcome Goal Cheap distributed solar power to address energy poverty Understand and apply principles of material interaction with sunlight Facilitate technology transfer / commercial uptake Adoption of distributed solar power in relevant areas Questions and metrics Who influences decisions? Are stakeholders at table? Who makes design or funding decision? Connected to real-world needs? How much funding? Is it sustained? Who is performing? How are targets set? Are they realistic? Is there adequate human capital? Does work match priorities? Are researchers, innovators, and entrepreneurs connected? Technical specs? Are there barriers to production? Adequate incentives and investments? Available, affordable, accessible? Are relevant international agreements / NGOs in place? Trade or other barriers? IP protections?

7. R&D Budget Reporting The system has evolved to collect what is easiest to collect Reporting can either be transparent/robust or opaque/limited Or a little bit of both Top-heavy: Most R&D happens in relatively few countries US, China, Japan, Germany, UK, France + Korea = about three- quarters of global R&D total

8. Input Metrics R&D Dollars: Character (basic, applied, development, plant) Program / agency Performer Discipline By Function (Energy, Agriculture, Defense, Space, etc) By geographic distribution Other inputs Budget plans and strategies; policy statements Workforce: skills, degrees, movement Patents / licensing agreements Publications / Citations Follow-on investment Aggregators NSF, OECD, UNESCO, AAAS

9. How do we determine outcomes? Its really hard… Some methods: Case studies Hindsight studies Surveys Econometric Analyses Data is not information, information is not knowledge, knowledge is not understanding, understanding is not wisdom. - Cliff Stoll and Gary Schubert

10. For more info… mhouriha@aaas.org 202-326-6607 www.aaas.org/spp/rd/