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The Chinese Economy in the Past Three Decades: Achievements and Problems Andong Zhu Tsinghua University Beijing IDEAs Conference 2007.6.

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Presentation on theme: "The Chinese Economy in the Past Three Decades: Achievements and Problems Andong Zhu Tsinghua University Beijing IDEAs Conference 2007.6."— Presentation transcript:

1 The Chinese Economy in the Past Three Decades: Achievements and Problems Andong Zhu Tsinghua University Beijing IDEAs Conference

2 Outline Introduction The Chinese Economy in the First Three Decades after the Revolution The Achievements of the Chinese Economy in the Past Three decades The Problems of the Chinese Economy in the Past Three decades Conclusion

3 The Chinese Economy in the First Three Decades after the Revolution The Initial Condition The Achievement during This Period

4 A Family in the Old China

5 1948: Hyper-inflation in China

6 The Achievements Preliminarily Industrialized the Economy Established a Independent and Comprehensive Industrial system GDP Growth Rate Averaged at 6.68% per year during Life Expectancy increased from around 35 to about 67 years.

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9 Outline Introduction The Chinese Economy in the First Three Decades after the Revolution The Achievements of the Chinese Economy in the Past Three decades The Problems of the Chinese Economy in the Past Three decades Conclusion

10 The GDP Growth Rate of China and the World

11 The Rapid Increase of GDP

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14 Outline Introduction The Chinese Economy in the First Three Decades after the Revolution The Achievements of the Chinese Economy in the Past Three decades The Problems of the Chinese Economy in the Past Three decades Conclusion

15 Is the Chinas Economic Growth Sustainable?

16 Pollution in the World:1999

17 The Over-dependency on Foreign Trade

18 The Over-dependency on Investment

19 China s Changing Economic Structure, (%) Share of GDP (expenditure approach): a Private Consumption Public Consumption Fixed Capital Formation Exports b Net Exports Contribution to GDP growth: a Private Consumption Public Consumption Fixed Capital Formation Exports b Net Exports

20 The Changing Structure of the U.S economy, (%) Share of GDP: Private Consumption Private Investment Government Spending Net Exports Contribution to GDP growth: Private Consumption Private Investment Government Spending Net Exports

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22 Decreasing Consumption Rate

23 Income Inequality in China:1979~2004

24 Sweden 25, India 32.5, United States 40.8, China 44.7, Brazil 59.1 Gini Coefficient for Chinas Income Distribution

25 The Increasing Inequality According to a recent study, In urban area, the top 10% familys income is 31 times of the bottom 10% familys income, rather than 9 times, as some statistics show. If we consider both the urban and rural area, the ratio is 55, rather than 21 times.

26 Inequality and Social Development In China

27 The Change of Life Expectancy in the World Argentina Australia Brazil Canada China France India Indonesia Japan Korea, Rep Malaysia Mexico United States East Asia & Pacific High income Middle income Low income World

28 International Comparison of the Expenditure Structure on Health Health expenditure, total (% of GDP) Public Share of Total Health Expenditure (%) Private Share of Total Health Expenditure (%) Australia Austria Brazil Canada China France India Indonesia Japan Nigeria Turkey Sweden United Kingdom United States Zambia East Asia & Pacific High income Middle income Low income World

29 public spending in education / GDP, compare China and selected countries Australia Austria Canada China France India Indonesia Japan Turkey Sweden United States United Kingdom East Asia & Pacific High income Upper middle income Middle income Lower middle income Low income World

30 International Comparison of Secondary School enrollment (%) Australia Brazil China France India Indonesia Japan Korea, Rep Malaysia United States East Asia & Pacific High income Upper middle income Middle income Lower middle income Low income World

31 International Comparison of the Expenditure Structure on Education Lower secondarySecondaire 1er cycle Lower secondarySecondaire 1er cycle ns qz ns qz Primary educationEnseignement primaire Primary educationEnseignement primaire Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz Average duration of early childhood education in yearsDurée moyenne de la préscolarité en années Average duration of early childhood education in yearsDurée moyenne de la préscolarité en années UniversityUniversity UniversityUniversity M + WH + F M + WH + F MenHommes MenHommes WomenFemmes WomenFemmes Lower secondarySecondaire 1er cycle Lower secondarySecondaire 1er cycle ns qz ns qz Primary educationEnseignement primaire Primary educationEnseignement primaire Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz Average duration of early childhood education in yearsDurée moyenne de la préscolarité en années Average duration of early childhood education in yearsDurée moyenne de la préscolarité en années Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire Secondary educationEnseignement secondaire ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz ns qz Pre-primary (age 3+) Primary, secondary and post-secondary non-tertiary TertiaryAll levels of education Public sources Private sources 1 Public sources Private sources 1 Public sources Private sources 1 Public sources Private sources 1 Argentinamm Chile China India 2, Indonesia 4, Jamaica Malaysiammmm mm Peru Philippines 3 mm mmmm Thailand Uruguay mmmm WEI mean ** OECD mean

32 The Excessive Savings in China:

33 The over deposit Gap between deposit and loan increased from 1995 (billion)

34 What are the Major Reasons of Inequality in China Monopoly? Corruption? Privatization? Foreign Capital?

35 The Laid-off/privatization Movement Urban employment State-owned Units Collective -owned Units Mining and Quarrying Manufacturi ng highest level 27331(2005) 11261(1995) 3628(1991) 932(1995)9803(1995) lowest level19040(1995) 6488(2005)810(2005) 558(2005)8043(2000) change

36 The Laid-off/privatization Movement

37 Informalizing Labor Market

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40 Share in Industry Output by Ownership (%)

41 Foreign Capitals Share in Different Industries in China:2005

42 Share of Different Ownership in Different Industries in China:2005

43 Take away Profits, Leave GDP and… Pollution

44 Pollution in the World:1999

45 Searching a Job Or a War

46 Conclusion The growth pattern of China has to be changed, or it will not sustain face the dangers of re-colonizing Foreign Capital Controls the Economy; Locked at the low-Ladder of the World Economy How? Strengthen the State and Empower the Working Class

47 End Thank You!

48 Chinas Basic Economic Statistics, (percent) 6th Five Year Plan ( ) 7th Five Year Plan ( ) 8th Five Year Plan ( ) 9th Five Year Plan ( ) Real GDP growth (Official) Real GDP growth (Maddison) Inflation rate Energy consumption growth Gross domestic savings (% of GDP) Investment (% of GDP) State Investment (% of Gross investment) State Investment (% of GDP) Consumption (% of GDP) Government Expenditure (% of GDP) Net Exports (% of GDP) Foreign direct investment (% of GDP) FDI (% of gross investment) Household final consumption growth General government consumption growth Gross consumption growth Gross Investment Growth State Investment Growth

49 Chinas Basic Economic Statistics, (percent) 6th Five Year Plan ( ) 7th Five Year Plan ( ) 8th Five Year Plan ( ) 9th Five Year Plan ( ) Government budget Balance(% of GDP) New government debt(% of GDP) SOE output share in industry output SOE employment growth City collective enterprise employment growth Staff and workers employed by manufacturing sector, growth total Staff and workers, growth Total employment growth Share of employment in formal sector Change of formal sector employment share in total employment Gini coefficient

50 1988:

51 ( )


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