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Decreasing Employment Elasticity, Informalizing Labor Market and Ownership in China Andong Zhu Tsinghua University, Beijing, China Nairobi, 2007.01.

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Presentation on theme: "Decreasing Employment Elasticity, Informalizing Labor Market and Ownership in China Andong Zhu Tsinghua University, Beijing, China Nairobi, 2007.01."— Presentation transcript:

1 Decreasing Employment Elasticity, Informalizing Labor Market and Ownership in China Andong Zhu Tsinghua University, Beijing, China Nairobi,

2 Outline Introduction Decreasing Employment Elasticity Informalizing Labor Market Ownership Changes in the Chinese Economy Conlusion

3 Introduction Unsustainable trends in the Chinese Economy() == Consumption rate is too low == Inequality/poverty == concentration of wealth/low labor share ==unemployment/informalizing employment

4 Chinas Changing Economic Structure, (%) Share of GDP (expenditure approach): a Private Consumption Public Consumption Fixed Capital Formation Exports b Net Exports Contribution to GDP growth: a Private Consumption Public Consumption Fixed Capital Formation Exports b Net Exports

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7 Decreasing Employment Elasticity Employment Growth value-added Growth employment Elasticity Primary Industry Secondary Industry Tertiary Industry Total Primary Industry Secondary Industry Tertiary Industry Total

8 Graduates from higher education institutes, employment ratio, employment(10,000 or %) 33 8 Total GraduatesEmployment Ratiounemployed % % % % %

9 Informalizing Labor Market

10 Ownership Changes in the Chinese Economy Shrinking SOE Sector Increasing Private Enterprises Share Increasing Foreign Sector

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12 Share in Industry Output by Ownership (%)

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14 Conclusion Dangers in the Chinese Economy: re- colonizing Foreign Capital Controls the Economy; Foreign Capital Controls the Economy; Locked at the low-Ladder of the World Economy Locked at the low-Ladder of the World Economy Strengthen the State and Empower the Working Class

15 Chinas Basic Economic Statistics, (percent) 6th Five Year Plan ( ) 7th Five Year Plan ( ) 8th Five Year Plan ( ) 9th Five Year Plan ( ) Real GDP growth (Official) Real GDP growth (Maddison) Inflation rate Energy consumption growth Gross domestic savings (% of GDP) Investment (% of GDP) State Investment (% of Gross investment) State Investment (% of GDP) Consumption (% of GDP) Government Expenditure (% of GDP) Net Exports (% of GDP) Foreign direct investment (% of GDP) FDI (% of gross investment) Household final consumption growth General government consumption growth Gross consumption growth Gross Investment Growth State Investment Growth

16 Chinas Basic Economic Statistics, (percent) 6th Five Year Plan ( ) 7th Five Year Plan ( ) 8th Five Year Plan ( ) 9th Five Year Plan ( ) Government budget Balance(% of GDP) New government debt(% of GDP) SOE output share in industry output SOE employment growth City collective enterprise employment growth Staff and workers employed by manufacturing sector, growth total Staff and workers, growth Total employment growth Share of employment in formal sector Change of formal sector employment share in total employment Gini coefficient


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