Presentation on theme: "Can China Smoothly and Successfully Shift to a Sustainable Growth Model Andong Zhu Tsinghua University."— Presentation transcript:
Can China Smoothly and Successfully Shift to a Sustainable Growth Model Andong Zhu Tsinghua University
Outline Introduction The Growth Models in the past 30 yeas Opportunities and Challenges to New and Sustainable Model Conclusion
Introduction: From Old China to New China Semi-Feudal Semi-Colonial Backward Independent Economic & Social Construction Balanced Market-Oriented GDP Growth Fast Income Inequality Social Development Environment Sustainable (Economic, Social, Environment) Development 19491978 2002 or 2009?
The Achievements of New China before 1978 Preliminarily Industrialized the Economy Established a Independent and Comprehensive Industrial system GDP Growth Rate Averaged at 6.68% per year during 1953-1978 Life Expectancy increased from around 35 to about 67 years.
The Growth Models of New China 2.0 Achievements Evolvement of the Growth Models Problems
Evolvement of the Growth Models Planned Economy With Market Mechanism Balanced/Inward Looking Growth Marketization; Privatization Liberalization Over-dependent On International Market And Investment Sustainable (Economic, Social, Environment) Development Relatively Balanced/Outward Looking Growth Imbalanced/outward Looking New growth model? 1992200120091978
What New Growth model Needed in the Chinese Economy? Balanced/sustainable Economic development Less depend on international Market Less depend on Investment Increasing Private Consumption increasing income of the poor & improving the Social Security Net (re-)nationalization of enterprises; more strictly regulate the market
Opportunities and Challenges to New Model Opportunities The Drain Up of the Rural Labor Reserves The Current Crisis (International Market; US Model; Theory, etc) Challenges