1. Professor of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Co-Director, Carbon Mitigation Initiative Robert Socolow – Princeton University

2. Putting CO 2 Capture and Sequestration into First Gear Robert Socolow Princeton University socolow@princeton.edu February 14 th, 2008 Earth Institute, Columbia University Global Task Force on Carbon Capture and Storage

3. Outline of talk 1.A wedge of CCS is an immense undertaking. 2.CCS is ready for full-scale deployment and on- the-job learning (both policy and technology) 3.CCS deployment is urgently needed in the developing world. 4.Conundrum: Given the capital cost crunch, the sunk cost in existing plants, and the seduction of natural gas, is CCS-coal really imminent in the U.S.? Might CCS with coal-for-fuel arrive before CCS with coal-for-power?

4. 6 Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year Current path = “ramp ” Flat path 0 30 60 1950200020502100 Stabilization Wedges 60 GtCO 2 /yr ≈ 16 GtC/yr Eight “wedges” Today and for the interim goal, global per-capita emissions are ≈ 4 tCO 2 /yr. Historical emissions Interim Goal

5. What is a “Wedge”? A “wedge” is a strategy to reduce carbon emissions that grows in 50 years from zero to 4 GtCO 2 /yr. The strategy has already been commercialized at scale somewhere. 4 GtCO 2 /yr 50 years Total = 100 Gigatons CO 2 Cumulatively, a wedge redirects the flow of 100 GtCO 2 in its first 50 years. This is three trillion dollars at $30/tCO 2. A “solution” to the CO 2 problem should provide at least one wedge.

6. Graphics courtesy of DOE Office of Fossil Energy Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge: Carbon capture and storage (CCS) at 800 1000-MW coal power plants. CCS at “coal-to-liquids” plants producing 30 million barrels per day. Coal with Carbon Capture and Storage Graphic courtesy of Statoil ASA

7. The Future Fossil Fuel Power Plant Shown here: After 10 years of operation of a 1000 MW coal plant, 60 Mt (90 Mm 3 ) of CO 2 have been injected, filling a horizontal area of 40 km 2 in each of two formations. Assumptions: 10% porosity 1/3 of pore space accessed 60 m total vertical height for the two formations. Note: Plant is still young. Note: Injection rate is 150,000 bbl(CO 2 )/day, 3 billion barrels over 60 years.

8. A 1000 MW coal plant with CCS requires lifetime storage of 3x10 9 barrels of CO 2 CO 2 emissions rate: 6 MtCO 2 /yr = 150,000 bbl/day. Assume: 1) 9 barrels CO 2 /t, and 2) extra coal for CCS balances less than 100% CO 2 capture. For 60-year plant lifetime: 3 billion barrels. World’s oil fields larger than 3 billion barrels*: 80. Percent of total production from these 80 fields: 40%. This is familiar territory for the oil industry. * Including water reinjection, fluid flow in and out of a 500 million barrels ( Mbbl) field may be 3000 Mbbl. 500 fields are > 500 (Mbbl) and account for 2/3 of global production.

9. $30/tCO 2 ≈ 2¢/kWh induces CCS. Three views. CCS Wholesale power w/o CCS: 4 ¢/kWh Transmission and distribution A coal-gasification power plant can capture CO 2 for an added 2¢/kWh ($30/tCO 2 ). This: triples the price of delivered coal; adds 50% to the busbar price of electricity from coal; adds 20% to the household price of electricity from coal. Coal at the power plant 2 6 3 1 } 6 Retail power w/o CCS: 10 ¢/kWh Plant capital

10. Readiness: CCS capabilities today Technologies for both capture and storage exist at scale. Linking them will get us started. Market niches exist: where CO 2 is cheap to capture (natural gas separation plants, hydrogen plants for ammonia and refineries) where CO 2 is worth paying a lot for (Enhanced Oil Recovery, or EOR) Regulation is already developed for fluids injected below ground: for natural gas seasonal storage, EOR, hazardous waste disposal, and municipal waste disposal.

11. Already, in the middle of the Sahara! At In Salah, Algeria, natural gas purification by CO 2 removal plus CO 2 pressurization for nearby injection Separation at amine contactor towers

12. A 500-mile CO2 pipeline built in the 1980s Two conclusions: 1.CO 2 in the right place is valuable. 2.CO 2 from McElmo was a better source than CO 2 from any local power plant. McElmo Dome: A huge natural CO 2 reservoir In place: 1500 MtCO 2 Production: 15-20 MtCO 2 /yr Connects McElmo Dome, Colorado, to Permian Basin, west Texas. CO 2 is for enhanced oil recovery Rule of thumb: 2 to 5 bbl incremental oil per tCO 2 injected.

13. The developing world is expecting a huge expansion of coal power Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2007, Reference scenario. 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000 2005203020052030 Mtoe TE Other OECD EU27 Japan US Other DC India China Power generationOther Coal input Global CO 2 emissions from coal: 11 GtCO 2 in 2005, 19 GtCO 2 in 2030.

14. CO2 emission commitments from new power plants Historic emissions, all uses 2003-2030 power-plant lifetime CO 2 commitments Source: IEA, WEO 2004, Reference scenario. Assumed lifetime: coal 60 yr, gas 40 yr, oil 20 yr. Policy priority: Deter investments in new long-lived high-carbon stock Needed: “Commitment accounting.” Credit for comparison: David Hawkins, NRDC 100 GtCO 2 not emitted = 1 wedge 1400 GW new coal plants

15. How can we redirect the expected $22 trillion global investment in energy supply, 2006-2030? Gas 19% Coal 3% Electricity 53% Oil 24% Biofuels 1% Power generation 51% 49% Other Refining 73% 22% 5% Exploration and development LNG chain Transmission and distribution 55% 37% 8% Mining Shipping and ports 10% 90% $5.4 trillion $11.6 trillion $4.2 trillion $0.6 trillion Exploration and development Transmission and distribution Total investment = $21.9 trillion (in $2006) Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2007, Reference scenario.

16. China has installed SO 2 scrubbers at an astounding rate since 2005 100 GW Slope:100 GW/yr

17. Source: EIA U.S. Power Plant Capacity, by Vintage 300 GW of existing coal plants. Options: Retirement Rebuild, i.e., “scrap-and-build” End-of-pipe CO 2 capture (vs. SOx-NOx Clear Skies lock-in) If we push hard on end-use efficiency, will our current fleet suffice for >20 yrs?

18. Efficient Use of Electricity lighting motorscogeneration Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge:. 25% reduction in expected 2055 electricity use in commercial and residential buildings Target: Commercial and multifamily buildings.

19. Coal-based Synfuels with CCS* *Carbon capture and storage Coal-based Synfuels with CCS* *Carbon capture and storage Effort needed for 1 wedge by 2055 Capture and storage of the CO 2 byproduct at plants producing 30 million barrels per day of coal-based synfuels Assumption: half of C originally in the coal is available for capture, half goes into synfuels. Graphics courtesy of DOE Office of Fossil Energy Result: Coal-based synfuels have no worse CO 2 emissions than petroleum fuels, instead of doubled emissions. Will the oil market lead to CCS with coal synfuels before CCS with coal power?

20. Further Considerations Carbon policy must assure that natural gas carbon emissions are priced. Regional CO 2 pipeline systems are required, with trunks and branches. Future coal plant locations will be affected by available CO 2 destinations. The co-sequestration option (putting sulfur underground) is clever, but is it workable? Storage pore space is another mineral reserve: the more you use, the more you have. Never forget public acceptance!

21. Avoid Mitigation Lite Mitigation Lite: The right words but the wrong numbers. Companies’ investments are unchanged: the emissions price is a cost of business. Individuals change few practices. For specificity, consider a price ramp that is not “lite,” one rising from zero to $30/tCO 2 over 10 years. 0510 Year of policy $30/tCO 2 CO 2 emissions price

22. Benchmark: $30/tCO 2 Form of EnergyEquivalent to $30/tCO 2 (≈ $100/tC) Natural gas$1.60/1000 scf Crude oil$13/barrel Coal$70/U.S. ton Gasoline25¢/gallon (ethanol subsidy: 50¢/gallon) Electricity from coal2.4¢/kWh (wind and nuclear subsidies: 1.8 ¢/kWh) Electricity from natural gas1.1¢/kWh Carbon emission charges in the neighborhood of $30/tCO 2 can enable scale-up of most of the wedges, if supplemented with sectoral policy to facilitate transition. $30/tCO 2 is the current European Trading System price for 2008 emissions. At this price, current global emissions (30 GtCO 2 /yr) cost $900 billion/yr, 2% of GWP.

23. Some Carbon Policy Principles Establish a CO 2 price schedule forceful enough to drive investment decisions. Make the price salient as far upstream as possible (best, when C comes out of the ground or across a border). Supplement the price with sectoral policies (RPS, CCS, CAFE, appliance mandates). Stimulate international coordination. Allow a teething period.

24. Summing Up If coal is as central to global development as it now appears to be, an immense amount of CCS will be deployed. The U.S. can deploy full-scale projects now. The best reason for doing so is to leverage investments outside the U.S. Domestic deployment requires enticements to overcome high capital costs, first-mover costs, and the seduction of natural gas. Clear Skies needs to be overhauled to encourage CCS at existing plants. Success at aggressive end-use electricity efficiency increases the enticements required.

25. Extra Slides

26. Energy Efficiency Decarbonized Electricity Fuel Displacement by Low-Carbon Electricity Extra Carbon in Forests, Soils, Oceans Decarbonized Fuels 20072057 30 GtCO 2 /yr 60 GtCO 2 /yr Methane Management Triangle Stabilization Fill the Stabilization Triangle with Eight Wedges in six broad categories

27. U.S. Wedges Source: Lashof and Hawkins, NRDC, in Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, September 2006, p. 57

28. “The Wedge Model is the IPOD of climate change: You fill it with your favorite things.” David Hawkins, NRDC, 2007. Therefore, prepare to negotiate with others, who have different favorite things.

29. Efficient Use of Fuel Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge: Note: 1 car driven 10,000 miles at 30 mpg emits 4 tons of CO 2. 2 billion cars driven 10,000 miles per year at 60 mpg instead of 30 mpg. 2 billion cars driven, at 30 mpg, 5,000 instead of 10,000 miles per year. Property-tax systems that reinvigorate cities and discourage sprawl Video-conferencing

30. ActivityAmount producing 4tCO 2 /yr (1tC/yr) emissions a) Drive10,000 miles/yr, 30 miles per gallon b) Fly10,000 miles/yr c) Heat homeNatural gas, average house, average climate d) Use lights and appliances 300 kWh/month when all coal-power (600 kWh/month, natural-gas-power) Four ways to emit 4 tonCO 2 /yr

31. Two sets of measurements of the porosity at the 20-m-thick Krechba field in the Algerian desert, near a CO 2 injection well (thin tubing): Coarse mapping by seismic echolocation soundings. Red and yellow represent high porosity regions; blue indicates low porosity areas. Finer depiction of porosity (looking like colored beads), within a few centimeters of the well, by a down-hole electric sensor probe. Fine-scale is used fo steering the drilling apparatus toward regions of high porosity. Smart CO 2 injection

32. Field and Lab Studies of CO 2 Effects on Cement Samples of unreacted H-type cement (left) and cement after 3 weeks in flow- through reactor at 50ºC and pH 2.4 (right). Color variation is due to changes in oxidation in iron impurities. Cement recovered with sidewall corer from a 19 year-old oil well at RMOTC in Wyoming. Cement adhered to outside casing at 933.3 m at a band of dense limestone. Scanning electron microscopy on sample and original cement materials reveal post-injection calcium leaching. Source: George Scherer, Princeton University.

33. How long will CO 2 stay underground and how long is long enough? How nearly permanent should storage be? “Environmental ethics and traditional economics give different answers. Following a strict environmental ethic that seeks to minimize the impact of today’s activities on future generations, authorities might, for instance, refuse to certify a storage project estimated to retain CO 2 for only 200 years. Guided instead by traditional economics, they might approve the same project on the grounds that two centuries from now a smarter world will have invented superior carbon disposal technology.” RHS, Scientific American, July 2005, p. 55. Large unconfined aquifers: abundant, 1000 year retention. This realization, reported in 1996 by Sam Holloway, British Geological Survey for Joule II, revolutionized the world’s perspective on CCS. Oil/gas reservoirs: rare, 1,000,000 year retention.

34. A sequence of CCS opportunities CAPTURESTORAGE Near-term (0-5 years)Concentrated CO 2 streams: 1)natural gas separation; 2)hydrogen for refineries, chemicals (NH 3, urea) Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) Mid-term (5-15 years)Coal, petcoke, and natural gas power plants Biomass power plants? Coal-to-synfuels plants? Aquifer storage Long-term (at least 15 years) Coal-to-H 2 for distributed H 2 Direct capture from the air? Mineral storage? Ocean storage? Deep sub-ocean storage?

35. “No CTL without CCS” 1.Climate-change concerns will dominate the future of coal. 2.Key question is whether coal-to-liquids (CTL) option is competitive in a carbon-constrained world. 3.Incremental costs of CO 2 capture and storage (CCS), relative to costs with CO2 venting, are likely to be lower at CTL plants than at coal power plants. 4.Competitiveness of CTL with CCS, vs. many other options, is uncertain: a.CCS costs will come down with experience, but b.CCS costs could rise if public distrust inhibits CO 2 storage. 5.Policy recommendation: CTL, starting with the first pilots, should proceed only with CCS.

36. Inaugural meeting February 14, 2008 Global Task Force on Carbon Capture and Sequestration