Global and Regional Emissions and Mitigation Policies (with Application of ERB model for India) P.R. Shukla.
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Global and Regional Emissions and Mitigation Policies (with Application of ERB model for India) P.R. Shukla
Top Down models Energy Economy linkages Partial Equilibrium in energy markets through price adjustments Endogenous determination of prices Feedback of prices on GDP Demand endogenously determined Supply of energy, demographic parameters exogenously specified
ERB Model : Application for India Disaggregation by fuel type Conventional oil, conventional gas, coal, nuclear power, hydroelectric power, solar electric power Global scale and regional detail Nine Regions - US, OECD West, Japan-Australia-New Zealand, EE/FSU, Middle East, China and other South Asian countries, Latin America, Africa, and India Long-term applicability : Terminal year 2095 Four modules Supply, Demand, Energy balance, GHG emissions
Supply Supply categories Resource constrained exhaustible conventional oil and gas production rates follow logistic paths Resource constrained renewable hydro production rates follow logistic paths Backstop unconventional oil and gas, coal, solar and nuclear infinitely elastic supply schedule Supply by grades
Demand Demand depends on population, GNP, and prices Regional prices of oil, gas and coal determined from world prices, transportation cost and taxes or subsidies Regional prices of secondary fuels from the price of six primary energy fuels Cost and supply of hydro determined exogenously Market share of five fuels determined by logit framework
Demand Energy service prices for Residential/Commercial, Transport and Industry sectors Sectoral energy service demand is determined using income and price elasticities Fuel shares, fuel rates, and technological improvement determine fuel demand in end- use sectors Fossil fuel demand for primary energy is sum of demand from end-use sectors, electric utilities and synfuel conversion from coal.
Energy balances Markets for nuclear, solar and hydro are cleared as identities Energy market for oil, gas and coal are cleared through price adjustments in an equilibrium framework Excess demand in each of the markets as function of prices Price elasticities obtained by numerical procedure and used to revise the prices for market clearance
Greenhouse Gas Emissions Carbon emissions determined by applying carbon coefficients Zero carbon release coefficients for nuclear, solar and conservation
Key parameters in Reference Case Population Annual growth rate for India: 1.1 % (1990-2050) Labour productivity Annual growth rate for India: 4 % (1990-2050) Rate of exogenous end-use energy efficiency improvement Annual growth rate for India: 2 % (1990-2050) Fossil fuel resource base Non-greenhouse environmental costs of fuels
Intervention scenarios Advance technologies Hydrogen fuel cells as alternative power source Low cost biomass source with 20 percent of biomass available at $1.40 per GJ and 80 percent at $2.40 per GJ by 2020 Exogenous global end-use energy intensity improvement rate reaches 2 percent per year by 2050 Carbon Tax $100 tax per tonne of carbon content in the fuels imposed in each region Stabilisation of emissions Global carbon emissions restricted to 7850 TgC (550 ppmv) in the terminal year