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Global and Regional Emissions and Mitigation Policies (with Application of ERB model for India) P.R. Shukla.

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Presentation on theme: "Global and Regional Emissions and Mitigation Policies (with Application of ERB model for India) P.R. Shukla."— Presentation transcript:

1 Global and Regional Emissions and Mitigation Policies (with Application of ERB model for India) P.R. Shukla

2 Top Down models  Energy Economy linkages  Partial Equilibrium in energy markets through price adjustments  Endogenous determination of prices  Feedback of prices on GDP  Demand endogenously determined  Supply of energy, demographic parameters exogenously specified

3 ERB Model : Application for India  Disaggregation by fuel type  Conventional oil, conventional gas, coal, nuclear power, hydroelectric power, solar electric power  Global scale and regional detail  Nine Regions - US, OECD West, Japan-Australia-New Zealand, EE/FSU, Middle East, China and other South Asian countries, Latin America, Africa, and India  Long-term applicability : Terminal year 2095  Four modules  Supply, Demand, Energy balance, GHG emissions

4 Overview: ERB

5 Supply  Supply categories  Resource constrained exhaustible conventional oil and gas production rates follow logistic paths  Resource constrained renewable hydro production rates follow logistic paths  Backstop unconventional oil and gas, coal, solar and nuclear infinitely elastic supply schedule  Supply by grades

6 Demand  Demand depends on population, GNP, and prices  Regional prices of oil, gas and coal determined from world prices, transportation cost and taxes or subsidies  Regional prices of secondary fuels from the price of six primary energy fuels  Cost and supply of hydro determined exogenously  Market share of five fuels determined by logit framework

7 Demand  Energy service prices for Residential/Commercial, Transport and Industry sectors  Sectoral energy service demand is determined using income and price elasticities  Fuel shares, fuel rates, and technological improvement determine fuel demand in end- use sectors  Fossil fuel demand for primary energy is sum of demand from end-use sectors, electric utilities and synfuel conversion from coal.

8 Energy balances  Markets for nuclear, solar and hydro are cleared as identities  Energy market for oil, gas and coal are cleared through price adjustments in an equilibrium framework  Excess demand in each of the markets as function of prices  Price elasticities obtained by numerical procedure and used to revise the prices for market clearance

9 Greenhouse Gas Emissions  Carbon emissions determined by applying carbon coefficients  Zero carbon release coefficients for nuclear, solar and conservation

10 Key parameters in Reference Case  Population  Annual growth rate for India: 1.1 % (1990-2050)  Labour productivity  Annual growth rate for India: 4 % (1990-2050)  Rate of exogenous end-use energy efficiency improvement  Annual growth rate for India: 2 % (1990-2050)  Fossil fuel resource base  Non-greenhouse environmental costs of fuels

11 Assumptions : Non-intervention scenarios

12 Intervention scenarios  Advance technologies  Hydrogen fuel cells as alternative power source  Low cost biomass source with 20 percent of biomass available at $1.40 per GJ and 80 percent at $2.40 per GJ by 2020  Exogenous global end-use energy intensity improvement rate reaches 2 percent per year by 2050  Carbon Tax  $100 tax per tonne of carbon content in the fuels imposed in each region  Stabilisation of emissions  Global carbon emissions restricted to 7850 TgC (550 ppmv) in the terminal year

13 Regional GDP Reference Case

14 Region 19902095 US 2312 OECD West 177 JANZ 63 AFR 312 EE/FSU 2712 LA 47 MIDEAST 34 ACENP 1535 India 310 Global Carbon emissions: Reference Case

15 1370 EJ123 EJ Global Primary Energy Consumption: Reference Case

16 Global Primary Energy Use by Fuel Type: Reference Case

17 Price of traded fuels - IS92a

18 Energy Intensity IS92a

19 Global Primary Energy Consumption: Tax Cases

20 Primary Energy Consumption in India : Tax Cases

21 Global Carbon Emissions Tax Cases

22 Carbon Emissions in India: Tax Cases

23 ERB Tax Cases - Global v/s India GlobalIndia Tax Level Carbon Energy Carbon Energy mitigation (%) reduction (%)mitigation (%) reduction (%) $10 52 42 $25125104 $5024 10197 $10040 1930 12 $15049 2635 20 Cumulative - 1990 to 2095

24 Advance Technology

25 $100 Tax

26 Stabilisation

27 Carbon Emissions

28 Methane Emissions

29 N 2 O Emissions

30 Global Primary Energy Use - Scenarios

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