1. Arctic Climate Change Practical Implications of Changing Ice Cover John Falkingham IICWG, October 2000

2. Source: Parkinson SMMR/SSM I Analysis Source: Rothrock, U. of Washington Is the Arctic Icescape Changing? Science and observational evidence point to decreasing ice

3. Source: Parkinson SMMR/SSM I Analysis Source: Rothrock, U. of Washington No Summer Ice Cover www.msc-smc.ec.gc.ca/socc/seaice/seaice_future.html Is the Arctic Icescape Changing? Science and observational evidence point to decreasing ice

4. Hudson Bay Median Total Ice Concentration (1971-1998) for July 15 open water Ct 1 to 3 Ct 4 to 6 Ct 7 to 8 Ct 9 to 9+ Ct 10

5. Inter-Annual Variability Hudson Bay ice extent can vary by more than 300 % from one year to the next

6. Decreasing Ice Extent About 13% per decade

7. Hudson Bay Example of Heavy Ice Condition Year (1992) for July 15 open water Ct 1 to 3 Ct 4 to 6 Ct 7 to 8 Ct 9 to 9+ Ct 10

8. open water Ct 1 to 3 Ct 4 to 6 Ct 7 to 8 Ct 9 to 9+ Ct 10 Hudson Bay Example of Light Ice Condition Year (1977) for July 15

9. Marine Transportation in Canada’s Arctic

10. Canada’s Eastern Arctic Median Total Ice Concentration (1968-1998) for August 15 open water Ct 1 to 3 Ct 4 to 6 Ct 7 to 8 Ct 9 to 9+ Ct 10

11. Inter-Annual Variability

12. Decreasing Ice Extent Decrease of about 20% since 1968

13. Natural Resources Considerable resources ready for development Decreased ice would make these resources considerably more attractive economically

14. Marine Resources Currently, the only commercial fishery is the shrimp fishery along the Davis Strait / Baffin Bay ice edge Reduced ice extent could attract international fishing fleets to vast new stocks How will these new resources be managed?

15. The Northwest Passage Mariners have been seeking this route for at least 500 years. Will it become viable in this century?

16. CGCM2: Winter and Summer Projected Ice Cover Change 1971-90 vs 2041-2060 March September Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Meteorological Service of Canada

17. Inter-Annual Variability ˚Icebreaker escort will often be required ˚Route planning will be essential to avoid ice ˚Ice information services will be in high demand ˚Significant changes to ice information infrastructure Even with much reduced sea ice in the Arctic in the future, there will still be bad ice years interspersed with good ice years

18. Conclusion Cooperation and coordination among national ice services of the north polar region will become more important than ever