1. Riel Miller, 2005 FUTURREG Turku, June 7, 2006 Riel Miller Epistemological Foundations and Organisational Principles for a Futures Toolkit – A Futures Literacy Perspective

2. Riel Miller, 2005 The End of Certainty … we are now able to include probabilities in the formulation of the basic laws of physics. Once this is done, Newtonian determinism fails; the future is no longer determined by the present…. Mankind is at a turning point, the beginning of a new rationality in which science is no longer identified with certitude and probability with ignorance. … science is no longer limited to idealized and simplified situations but reflects the complexity of the real world, a science that views us and our creativity as part of a fundamental trend present at all levels of nature. Ilya Prigogine, The End of Certainty: Time, Chaos and the New Laws of Nature

3. Riel Miller, 2005 A “non-modal” approach to thinking about the future Branching assumes that history can be envisaged as a tree with many branches, the bifurcation of which represents points where different events present agents with choices... (Booth et. al. p. 6)

4. Riel Miller, 2005 Branching Subject (model) Time

5. Riel Miller, 2005 A “modal” approach to thinking about the future The possible worlds thesis explores the possibilities that a number of different worlds exist, each different from our own - in so much as in these different worlds, different states of affairs have obtained. (Booth et. al. p. 7)

6. Riel Miller, 2005 Possible Worlds (constrained by the same necessity – basic assumptions) Subject (model) Time NOW

7. Riel Miller, 2005 What is futures literacy?

8. Riel Miller, 2005 Definition Futures literacy is the capacity to question the assumptions used to make decisions today and to systematically explore the possibilities of the world around us through a mastery of rigorous imagining techniques.

9. Riel Miller, 2005 Futures Literacy Level 1 futures literacy –Temporal awareness, values, expectations Level 2 futures literacy –Rigorous imagining Level 3 futures literacy –Strategic scenarios

10. Riel Miller, 2005 Thinking about the future: How to select which stories to tell Possible Futures Conceivable Futures ? ? ? ?

11. Riel Miller, 2005 Level 1 Futures Literacy Temporal awareness, values, expectations

12. Riel Miller, 2005 Step 1 - Value & trend scenarios Method: Experiential - expectational Strengths: Rich detail, normative- trend scenarios, accessible narratives, builds temporal awareness Weaknesses: Incommensurate variables, incoherent models, usually ineffective for policy Outcome: Leadership & dialogue Products: Report explicit values & expectations, familiar stories

13. Riel Miller, 2005 Baby Bear, Mamma Bear, Papa Bear Scenarios Population Time Baby Mamma Papa

14. Riel Miller, 2005 The Good, The Bad & The Ugly Global Warming: Scenarios Adopt Kyoto Agreement (good) No agreements (bad) Muddle through (ugly) Human impact on climate change reduced Massive climate disruption Moderate human induced disruption of climate Build composite scenarios combining trends & preferences

15. Riel Miller, 2005 The Good, The Bad and The Ugly Bear ScenariosKnowledge Driven Commercially Driven Mixed Model Low rate of tech change Low enrollement growth Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3 Medium enrollment growth Scenario 4Scenario 5Scenario 6 High Enrollment growth Scenario 7Scenario 8Scenario 9 High rate of tech change Low enrollement growth Scenario 10Scenario 11Scenario 12 Medium enrollment growth Scenario 13Scenario 14Scenario 15 High Enrollment growth Scenario 16Scenario 17Scenario 18

16. Riel Miller, 2005 Level 2 Futures Literacy 1.Rigorous imagining – a model sets parameters for the frame 2.Telling good stories narrative rules – assumptions for the frame 3.Form/function scenarios within the Frame

17. Riel Miller, 2005 Step 2 - Rigorous imagining Method: Construct possibility space, descriptive model of the subject Strengths: Expands range of possible futures, tailored to task, analytical Weaknesses: Non-obvious outcomes, no probability assessment, reduced number of variables Outcome: Imagining futures that operate under different assumptions in an analytically clear fashion Products: Builds up metrics (parameters) for a frame for mapping policy relevant scenarios that can be connected to probabilities & preferences

18. Riel Miller, 2005 What is a possibility map? Select: –Specific topic –Theory (social science) underlying attributes –Variables (metrics) underlying attributes An example: –Specific topic: electricity –Dimension of change: pervasiveness –Possibility space of pervasiveness: a) ease-of-use b) range-of-uses

19. Riel Miller, 2005 Technology possibility space Ease of use Simple Difficul t Limited & homogeneous Unlimited & heterogeneous Range of uses Electricity How to select scenarios?

20. Riel Miller, 2005 Step 3. Telling good stories – five narrative criteria for framing scenarios 1.Purpose/genre 2.Point-of-view 3.Temporal-chronological frame 4.Protagonists 5.Causal rules – the “physics of the situation”

21. Riel Miller, 2005 1. What is the type or purpose of the story? Not tragedy or comedy, thriller or romance; but basic types: contingency planning/simulation training optimisation testing discovery - exploration -imagining

22. Riel Miller, 2005 2. What is the point-of-view? Not first or third person, stream-of-consciousness or dialogue; but is the story told in terms of: the choices people make in their everyday lives (micro) or aggregate outcomes (macro) – or both explicit relationship between micro & macro

23. Riel Miller, 2005 3. What is the temporal or chronological frame? Not beginning, middle and end; but comparative static (two or more cross-sections) or dynamic/path (time-series) or backcasting (reverse engineered)

24. Riel Miller, 2005 4. Who are the main protagonists? Not hero and villain; but who makes the decisions a specific institution (sub-unit) or a social/economic system (nation, sector, etc.) or institutions nested within a dynamic socio/economic context - interaction

25. Riel Miller, 2005 5. What rules apply to the action? Not is time travel allowed or Matrix like suspension of the rules of physics; but what arethe assumptions that provide the analytical definitions and causal relationships that make for robust social science.

26. Riel Miller, 2005 Example: the narrative assumptions for my “Learning Intensive Society” narrative: Purpose : Goal discovery – what is the potential of the present? Point-of-view: Change in daily life (metric: agriculture to industry) Temporal frame: Comparative static cross- section in 2030 Protagonist: socio-economic system (wealthy countries) Rules: universal declaration of human rights, representative democracy, mixed economies (markets not planning)

27. Riel Miller, 2005 Framing the scenarios

30. Stories within the frame

31. Step 4 - Form and Function Scenarios Method: Uses hypotheses regarding “role” & organisation to select scenarios within the “frame” Strengths: Clear selection criteria based on possibility space descriptive model as a way to specify systemic outcomes under different assumptions Weaknesses: Perceived as disconnected from probability & desirability (but consistent with end of certainty) Outcome: Decision compatible scenarios Products: Scenarios that clarify current assumptions & highlights strategic choices (that then need to be considered in light of expectations & preferences)

32. Riel Miller, 2005 Six Electrification Scenarios Functions Organisation CentralisedDecentralised Only as a Weapon Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Industrial Power Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Consumer Power Scenario 5 Scenario 6 Map on to possibility space

33. Riel Miller, 2005 S1S2S3S4S5S6 History

34. Riel Miller, 2005 Level 3 Futures Literacy Strategic scenarios – Having distinguished possible, probable and desirable: – Reintroduce values and probability – Focus on the assumptions and how choices might make a difference (defensive, neutral, transformative)

35. Riel Miller, 2005 Possible, probable, desirable Possible Futures Conceivable Futures Probable Futures Desirable Futures GBU & Bear Futures Possibility Space Futures Strategic Scenarios

36. Riel Miller, 2005 Step 5 - Strategic Scenarios Method: Use possibility space descriptive model (Step 2) within a frame (Step 3) to map form/function scenarios (Step 4) using, in part, values & expectations revealed in (Step 1) to select strategic (systemic assumption altering – or not) policy choices (Step 5) Strengths: High degree of imagination & policy compatibility of scenarios Weaknesses: Not predictive Outcome: Focuses decision making on changes today that might lead to a different future, capacity building for using/coping with spontaneity Product: stories of alternative presents

37. Riel Miller, 2005 Hybrid Strategic Scenario Method Level 1 FL –Values –Expectations –Preliminary dimensions of the subject Level 2 FL –Define subject using a descriptive model (variables) –Construct possibility spaces using variables –Frame the narrative –Develop function and form scenarios –Map the scenarios in the possibility space Level 3 FL –Assess scenarios in terms of values –Analyse scenario assumptions and pre-conditions compared with today (the potential of the present) –Compare current choices with the choices implied by the scenarios –Make decisions now with a greater awareness of the possibilities of the world around you

38. Riel Miller, 2005 A Perilous Transition? Certainly, if we do it this way Futures Literacy as an alternative Image: Sempe – crowd on a tight rope going from A to B

39. Riel Miller, 2005 Motivating questions How can we: reconcile greater freedom with collective choices? embrace greater diversity without inviting fragmentation & chaos? foster greater creativity without increasing burn-out & stress? inspire responsibility? motivate change without resorting to fear? manage risk without hierarchy? combine respect for complexity while still gaining depth of understanding?

40. Riel Miller, 2005 Why futures literacy matters Hope matters for motivation – what makes change worth the candle Capacity to understand and manage risk – making freedom and heterogeneity liveable Grasping the potential of a non- ergodic conjuncture: change in the conditions of change

41. Riel Miller, 2005 A time for method and methods for our time Why futures literacy now? Because a futures literate society can use: –diversification, imagination and inter- dependency to embrace spontaneity, experimentation & complexity without being overwhelmed by –fear of the risks (perception) –failure (reality of risk) in order to inspire aspirations consistent with a world where means are ends (values in practice)

42. Riel Miller, 2005 Build a bridge to nowhere, instead of planning use complexity, heterogeneity, network density and the capacity for spontaneity

43. Riel Miller, 2005 Thank you Riel Miller “ Virtually every step in the history of human innovation and invention has come about in the wake of someone asking about imaginary possibilities, speculating about what would happen if and reflecting on yet-unrealised and perhaps unrealisable possibilities." Nicholas Rescher, Imagining Irreality