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Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009 Novelty and Post- Secondary Education: An Exercise in Futures Literacy ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Presentation on theme: "Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009 Novelty and Post- Secondary Education: An Exercise in Futures Literacy ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------"— Presentation transcript:

1 Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009 Novelty and Post- Secondary Education: An Exercise in Futures Literacy Riel Miller Mutual Learning Workshop 1 Systems Thinking for Foresight: The case of Romanian Higher Education System September 2009 Bucharest, ROMANIA Photo credit: Mark Schacter ©

2 Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009 The straight warp of necessity, not to be swerved from its ultimate course – its every alternating vibration, indeed, only tending to that; free will still free to ply her shuttle between given threads; and chance, though restrained in its play within the right lines of necessity, and sideways in its motions directed by free will, though thus prescribed to by both, chance by turns rules either, and has the last featuring blow at events. Herman Melville, Moby-Dick

3 Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, Anticipation Systems and Futures Literacy Anticipation matters for decision making The future is fundamentally indeterminate Integrating indeterminacy into foresight in a consistent way – three dimensions of the future Futures Literacy

4 Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009 Bugs Bunny Anticipates

5 Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009 Make your bets – now (in the present)

6 Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009 M – the model of the future: How and what we see and tell about tomorrow changes what we see and DO now S : object system M : model of S E : effector system Source: Robert Rosen, Anticipatory Systems: Philosophical, Mathematical, & Methodological Foundations., Pergamon Press, Oxford, Slide by A. H. Louie, Mathematical Biologist

7 Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009 Anticipatory Models: Different ways of seeing the potential of the present Projected Futures: Bears, GBU and Planned Imaginable Futures ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

8 Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009 Bear Scenarios: Papa, Mama and Baby

9 Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009 Demographics Population Time Baby Mama Papa

10 Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009 Ennio Morricone

11 Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009 The Good, The Bad & The Ugly Global Warming: Scenarios New Agreement (good) No agreements (bad) Muddle through (ugly) Human impact on climate change reduced Massive climate disruption Moderate human induced disruption of climate Build composite scenarios combining trends & preferences

12 Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009 The Good, The Bad and The Ugly Bear ScenariosKnowledge Driven Commercially Driven Mixed Model Low rate of tech change Low enrollement growth Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3 Medium enrollment growth Scenario 4Scenario 5Scenario 6 High Enrollment growth Scenario 7Scenario 8Scenario 9 High rate of tech change Low enrollement growth Scenario 10Scenario 11Scenario 12 Medium enrollment growth Scenario 13Scenario 14Scenario 15 High Enrollment growth Scenario 16Scenario 17Scenario 18

13 Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009 Desire for Predictive Models? Subject: Social Changes Due to Climate Change Time

14 Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009 The End of Certainty … we are now able to include probabilities in the formulation of the basic laws of physics. Once this is done, Newtonian determinism fails; the future is no longer determined by the present…. Mankind is at a turning point, the beginning of a new rationality in which science is no longer identified with certitude and probability with ignorance. … science is no longer limited to idealized and simplified situations but reflects the complexity of the real world, a science that views us and our creativity as part of a fundamental trend present at all levels of nature. Ilya Prigogine, The End of Certainty: Time, Chaos and the New Laws of Nature

15 Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009 Actualization, instantiation, the simultaneity of variably thick presents in variable and multiple temporal states Cloud of now - phenomena

16 Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009 Defining the Future: Distinguishing three dimensions of the potential of the present

17 Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009

18 Contingency futures: winning the lottery

19 Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009 Optimization futures: chess, farming, assembly line Goal is given Rules are given Resources are given

20 Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009 Exploratory futures: imagining the potential of the present

21 Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009 Future Contexts: From Simple and Closed to Complex and Open Exploration Degree of complexity Complex Degree of Openness Simple Closed Open Optimization (chess game)

22 Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009 Less managable – less clarity of goal More reflexivity More managable – more clarity of goal Less reflexivity Greater freedom and ambiguity - spontaneity Regime 1 (Agriculture) Regime 2 (Industrial) Regime 3 (Learning society) Why Futures Literacy? Changing Contexts Over time and in different contexts the extent of optimisation (known goals with known resources and values) and exploration change and therefore the foresight methods that need to be used. Different contexts and times?

23 Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009 What is Futures Literacy? Changing our capacity to think about the future

24 Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009 Futures Literacy Futures Literacy is a way of thinking about the future (foresight) that is consistent with the principles of an exploratory context – non-probabilistic, spontaneous and experimentalist. Futures Literacy is the capacity to imagine the present differently using techniques that help identify/escape present assumptions and continuously invent/recount (tell/describe) stories/pictures that detect symptoms of inter-systemic dissonance and helps to re-establish shared sense making/meaning. Futures Literacy is to a spontaneous society what text literacy was to industrial society. It is the way to use the reality of complexity, heterogeneity, heterarchy and ambiguity to live freedom responsibly.

25 Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009 FL – A more consistent approach to linking ontology and epistemology in anticipatory thinking Contingent – the potential to be acted upon by an outside force – Functioning of AS: simulation and practice, learning by doing, early warning, transparency Optimization – the potential to be subject to control – Functioning of AS: Better calculation – models, projections, clarity and certainty of rules Exploratory – the potential to be without precedent, arising from inspiration, creativity and discovery – Functioning of AS: non-teleological imagining of changes in the conditions of change, rigorous imagining and enhanced narrative capacities for spontaneity

26 Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009 Learning by doing Level 1 futures literacy – Temporal awareness, values, expectations – defining the subject and choice of anticipatory focus: contingency, optimization or exploration Level 2 futures literacy – Rigorous imagining: narrative, analytical framing – for policy iso-probable, iso-desirable Level 3 futures literacy – Questioning anticipatory assumptions and assessing current choices Not a tool, a way of thinking about the learning process that futures processes take – refining anticipatory systems

27 Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009 Thinking about the potential of the present Subject (model) Time NOW

28 Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009 Imagining a Learning Intensive Society: Shifting the Anticipatory Assumptions for Thinking about Education 2. Changes in the Conditions of Change

29 Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009 Systemic Economic Transformation Next stage of market economy – beyond mass-production and mass-consumption Nature of production & consumption Organisational attributes of wealth creation Predominant type of economic activity Scope of transaction systems

30 Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009 Sequential Production, Consumption, Resource Deployment Process

31 Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009

32 Unbundled (individuals) Top down Personal creativity Bundled (firms) From Hierarchy to Heterarchy Mass-era worker and consumer Empowered team-worker, informed shopper Artist Future consumer/ producer - cyber creator Unique Creation: Beyond supply & demand

33 Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009

34 Clouds of value creation – transformation of the anticipatory conditions of the economy & society

35 Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009 Industrial (goods & services, public & private) Craft/Creative Household Agriculture Agricultural Society Industrial Society Learning Society Compositional Transformation Share of total wealth creation by source

36 Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009 What is a learning intensive society? Source: Riel Miller, XperidoX Futures Consulting; Average intensity of know-what Average intensity of know-how Average intensity of know-who Average intensity of know-why (decision making capacity) Agricultural Society Industrial Society Learning Society

37 Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009

38 What role for the university - now? What are the anticipatory assumptions? Oppositional? Marginal? Enabler? Photo credit: Mark Schacter,

39 Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009 Living knowledge (stock) Discovery (flow) Knowledge Stocks and Flows Where does the university fit? All knowledge Public sector Preservation Net new Private sector Preservation Net new Cover it all Non-institutional

40 Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009 Are universities – post- secondary systems – part of the problem or part of the solution, or both? What are our anticipatory assumptions? Acting on values now!

41 Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009 Policy: Making a Difference Long-run change is compositional – The old co-exists with the new, reallocation leading to shifts in the share of the total There are two basic types of change (both are dialectical and usually only partially rational, explicit): – Incremental improvement (continuous refinement of existing system) – Incremental transformation (cumulative alterations that eventually create a new system) What role for universities? Choices now based on anticipatory assumptions…

42 Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009 Post-Secondary Role? Interdependency Time/space flexibility of daily life Limited Unlimited ? Limited Full Conditions for transparency & trust: fluidity and spontaneity ? ?

43 Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009 Post-Secondary Role? Use of information Practical complexity of networking Limited Unlimited Limited Full Embrace complexity and freedom ? ? ?

44 Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009 Virtually every step in the history of human innovation and invention has come about in the wake of someone asking about imaginary possibilities, speculating about what would happen if and reflecting on yet-unrealised and perhaps unrealisable possibilities. Nicholas Rescher, Imagining Irreality Thank you


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