1. Nicholas Rosellini Deputy Regional Director UNDP Asia-Pacific Port Vila February 2010 Copenhagen and Beyond Climate Change and the UN System

2. Objectives Describe: links between climate change, poverty and human development Highlight: Copenhagen Accord and latest developments Discuss: implications for the UN system in Asia-Pacific

3. In Brief… Climate change is a development challenge that will impact on MDG achievement Responses have to be integrated, cut across traditional silos, and be long term Rural and urban development strategies need to incorporate responses to the challenges

4. Climate change is a development challenge that will impact on MDG achievement Six human development tipping points brought about by increased variability and changes in averages 1.Reduced agricultural productivity 2.Heightened water scarcity 3.Increased exposure to extreme weather events 4.Collapse of ecosystems 5.Increased health risks 6.Increased risks & economic and social vulnerability of affected countries and within countries

5. Impacts on economic and social aspects Macro level impacts: Reduced GDP growth rates; government budgetary revenues, employment; trade; rising food and energy prices. Sectoral level impacts: Lower outputs of energy, food, and water supply. Degraded public service provision water supply and sanitation, health services, food availability, etc. Household (HH) level impacts: (with differential impacts on women and children) Loss of income from off-farm employment Loss of income losses from agriculture, fishing and livestock Reduced production of subsistence crops and Natural Resource food products Loss of public services e.g. water and sanitation; education; safety nets; micro-finance And ultimately broader MDGs Malnutrition, increases in infant and child mortality, changes in school attendance, poorer health outcomes and life expectancy, and increasing social and political tension. Vulnerability: some households pushed back into poverty or fall further into poverty Spatial level impacts: Vulnerable regions (coastal, arid etc.) Urban areas

6. Overall implications for Poverty and MDGs Build on what has been learned from multiple crises impact (global economic crisis, complex emergencies) Intrinsic need for cross-disciplinary/sectoral/agency response – Business-as-Usual silos will not work 10-15 year horizon to take into climate shocks and stresses and impact on poor

7. Change growth models: –Low carbon [technology] investments and green jobs –Climate-proofing public investments, –New opportunities for economic diversification; Invest in building assets of the poor – natural, financial, human – and providing access to modern energy services to maintain welfare gains and providing choices for autonomous adaptation. Invest in new interventions in some countries (e.g. protection against malaria where not needed before). Specific implications for PR/MDGs

8. Increase investment in social protection to promote diversification and build resilience. Design instruments that enable effective risk sharing across households and communities. Incentivize private sector, an important contributor to growth and poverty reduction, to adapt (e.g. by supporting adoption of new technologies) and grow. Linking Climate finance to the achievement of poverty reduction and the MDGs

9. Some Examples… Country/ Policy level –In Bhutan, an adaptation project that reduces the risk of Glacier Lake Outburst Flooding (GLOF) from one particularly hazardous glacier lake has spearheaded the integration of new, climate change-related threats and risks into the National Disaster Management Act Local Governance –In Cambodia, UNDP is supporting the design and maintenance of climate-resilient irrigation systems in rural areas. While district chiefs and provincial departments of Water Resources and Meteorology are responsible for the maintenance of the main irrigation canals, Farmer Water User Committees assume responsibility for secondary and tertiary canals. These Committees will be strengthened and empowered to factor climate resilience into the operation and maintenance of day-to-day water management activities. Indigenous Peoples –In Bangladesh an adaptation project in vulnerable coastal districts is combining community-based afforestation activities to strengthen greenbelt buffers (protection against sea level rise, floods and storms) with livelihood diversification measures that build on existing indigenous knowledge.

10. Copenhagen Accord (CA) Hopenhagen or Brokenhagen: situation is still fluid and final verdict on implications of the Copenhagen Accord is not yet out As long as final outcome of Copenhagen and follow up action is still unclear we can only consider scenarios and describe options

11. Copenhagen Accord Was reached among 29 states, including all major emitters and economies, as well as several developing countries and LDCs Conference of Parties (CoP) did not authorize the formation of this group to negotiate the accord; Heads of States negotiated and drafted the Accord Categorically rejected by, among others, Bolivia, Cuba, Nicaragua, Sudan, Venezuela and Tuvalu

12. Copenhagen Accord Three elements: (1)the political declaration (2)a set of decisions (on adaptation, REDD, capacity building, technology) supporting the political declaration (3)annexes detailing the emission reduction targets by developed countries; mitigation actions by developing countries; submission by end Jan. 2010

13. Copenhagen Accord Annexes: (1)developed country mitigation targets: economy- wide target for 2020; pledges aggregate to 6- 14% below 1990 levels by 2020, substantially short of IPCC call for a 25-40% reduction (2)developing country mitigation actions: parties will implement mitigation actions (for LDCs and SIDS, action is voluntary), submit info on these actions to UNFCCC. Actions taken and envisaged will be communicated through National Communications every two years; Non-Annex 1 pledges approaching range of a 15-30% reduction

14. Copenhagen Accord Collectively, however, these pledges are estimated to set us on a track well above 2 degrees Celsius warming, and perhaps as high as 550 ppm concentrations and 3 degrees Celsius

15. Copenhagen Accord Plus(es) Helps building consensus internationally for negotiations in 2010 Risk that the whole process starts all over again is avoided Helps avoiding the danger that a parallel process, outside the UNFCCC negotiations, will see the light of the day Sets up Copenhagen Green Climate Fund, new Technology Mechanism and Forestry Mechanism Minus(es) Not legally binding Weak language, unclear status on its nature (took note of…): Not a CoP decision that can be operationalized through the FCCC institutional architecture Could be perceived as setting the precedent for non-universal negotiations within the UNFCCC process or for setting up a parallel process dominated by a limited number of countries Perceived as failure of UN-led process, setback for global governance

16. NAMAs, Adaptation, REDD Internationally-supported nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs) will be recorded in a registry, and will be subject to international measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) per COP guidelines Domestic actions are not subject to MRV The Adaptation Fund was given legal status by Germany and will now be hosted there; might be operational soon REDD : broad consensus and agreement, including significant financial commitments

17. Financing Short term mechanism & Long term architecture USD 30 billion for the period 2010-2012 and USD 100 billion a year by 2020 Short term: USD 30 billion for 2010 -2012; to be channeled through existing international institutions; UN interim fast track MDTF modality as additional mechanism Long term: Three long-term financing streams: Copenhagen Green Climate Fund (CGCF); operating entity of the UNFCCC; governance structure with equal representation of developed and developing countries – but no clarity on how, where and when CGCF will be established. Technology and Forestry Mechanisms

18. Implications for UN SG positive on CA: major emitting countries agreed to place their pledges on same record (annex of CA); agreement reached on a financing number; agreement was struck on the key sticking point of international monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) for donor supported mitigation actions. CC is not an environmental issue but a core development issue Assist countries that request assistance both within and independent of the international negotiations Build up activities on the ground, building resilience to CC and assisting in reducing poverty through low-emission development strategies Move to establishing Multi donor Trust Fund (MDTF) to channel some of the fast track funds through the UN system

19. Implications for UN in Asia-Pacific Recognize that responses to CC have to be integrated, cut across traditional agency silos, and be long term Work with UNCTs to use UNDAFs more strategically to place climate change at the heart of the development agenda Some UNDAFs are making an attempt in that direction, but mostly CC is mentioned somewhere in the environment section…

20. Thank you