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OThree Chemistry MM5 Model Diagnostic and Sensitivity Analysis Results Central California Ozone Study: Bi-Weekly Presentation 1 T. W. Tesche Dennis McNally.

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Presentation on theme: "OThree Chemistry MM5 Model Diagnostic and Sensitivity Analysis Results Central California Ozone Study: Bi-Weekly Presentation 1 T. W. Tesche Dennis McNally."— Presentation transcript:

1 OThree Chemistry MM5 Model Diagnostic and Sensitivity Analysis Results Central California Ozone Study: Bi-Weekly Presentation 1 T. W. Tesche Dennis McNally 4 November 2003

2 OThree Chemistry Contents  MM5 Performance Comparisons Between  Run 1 (eta.mpp)  Run 2 (eta.dry.mpp),  Run 3 (eta.dry.rrtm.mpp)  Spatial Mean Temperature Time Series Plots  Vector Mean Surface Wind Speed Time Series Plots  Statistical Tables for Surface Mixing Ratio, 2 m Temps, and Wind Speeds  HY-SPLIT 48-hr Back Trajectories from Peak Ozone Monitors on 17-20 Sept ’00  Current MM5 Diagnostic Questions

3 OThree Chemistry Peak 1-hr Ozone Measurements for 16-21 Sept ‘00

4 OThree Chemistry Back Trajectory Plot on 17 Sept ‘00 48-hr Back Trajectory from Edison Monitor where peak of 125 ppb ozone was measured at 1500 PST (2300 UTC)

5 OThree Chemistry Back Trajectory Plot on 18 Sept ‘00 48-hr Back Trajectory from Parlier Monitor where peak of 165 ppb ozone was measured at 1500 PST (2300 UTC)

6 OThree Chemistry Back Trajectory Plot on 19 Sept ‘00 48-hr Back Trajectory from Arvin Monitor where peak of 145 ppb ozone was measured at 1500 PST (2300 UTC)

7 OThree Chemistry Back Trajectory Plot on 20 Sept ‘00 48-hr Back Trajectory from Clovis Monitor where peak of 135 ppb ozone was measured at 1500 PST (2300 UTC)

8 OThree Chemistry Spatial Mean 2m Temps MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Eta.mpp

9 OThree Chemistry Spatial Mean 2m Temps MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Eta.dry.mpp

10 OThree Chemistry Spatial Mean 2m Temps MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Eta.dry.rrtm.mpp

11 OThree Chemistry Predicted and Observed 2m Temperatures MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Eta.dry.rrtm.mpp

12 OThree Chemistry Predicted and Observed 2m Temperatures MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Eta.dry.rrtm.mpp

13 OThree Chemistry Predicted and Observed 2m Temperatures MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Eta.dry.rrtm.mpp

14 OThree Chemistry Vector Mean Wind Speed MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Eta.mpp

15 OThree Chemistry Vector Mean Wind Speed MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Eta.dry.mpp

16 OThree Chemistry Vector Mean Wind Speed MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Eta.dry.rrtm.mpp

17 OThree Chemistry MM5 Surface Winds on 17 Sept ‘00 MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Eta.dry.rrtm.mpp Predicted and observed surface winds at 1500 PST on 18 Sept ’00 when a 1-hr peak ozone concentration of 165 ppb was measured at Parlier.

18 OThree Chemistry MM5 Temperature Performance Statistics for the 13-21 Sep ’00 Episode

19 OThree Chemistry MM5 Mixing Ratio Performance Statistics for the 13-21 Sep ’00 Episode

20 OThree Chemistry MM5 Wind Speed Performance Statistics for the 13-21 Sep ’00 Episode

21 OThree Chemistry Bias in 2m Surface Temperature MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Eta.dry.rrtm.mpp

22 OThree Chemistry Error in 2m Surface Temperatures MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Eta.dry.rrtm.mpp

23 OThree Chemistry Accuracy of Peak 2m Temperatures MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Eta.dry.rrtm.mpp

24 OThree Chemistry Bias in Surface Mixing Ratio MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Eta.dry.rrtm.mpp

25 OThree Chemistry Error in Surface Mixing Ratio MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Eta.dry.rrtm.mpp

26 OThree Chemistry Mean Daily Observed and Predicted Winds MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Eta.dry.rrtm.mpp

27 OThree Chemistry Daily Average Wind Speed RMSE Error MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Eta.dry.rrtm.mpp

28 OThree Chemistry Mean Daily Index of Agreement MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Eta.dry.rrtm.mpp

29 OThree Chemistry Observed and Predicted Wind Directions MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Eta.dry.rrtm.mpp

30 OThree Chemistry Ongoing Diagnostic Analyses  What is MM5 model sensitivity to surface roughness?  What is MM5 model sensitivity to soil moisture parameters?

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