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OThree Chemistry Modeling of the 16-20 Sept ’00 CCOS Ozone Episode: Diagnostic Experiments—Round 2 Central California Ozone Study: Bi-Weekly Presentation.

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Presentation on theme: "OThree Chemistry Modeling of the 16-20 Sept ’00 CCOS Ozone Episode: Diagnostic Experiments—Round 2 Central California Ozone Study: Bi-Weekly Presentation."— Presentation transcript:

1 OThree Chemistry Modeling of the Sept ’00 CCOS Ozone Episode: Diagnostic Experiments—Round 2 Central California Ozone Study: Bi-Weekly Presentation 4 T. W. Tesche Dennis McNally 15 December 2003

2 OThree Chemistry CAMx Diagnostic Runs: Rounds 1-2 CAMx Diagnostic Runs: Rounds 1-2  Round 1 Diagnostic Sensitivity Runs (across-the-board scalar changes) [presented at 3 Dec ’03 Bi-Weekly Call]  Run B (interim base case)  Run Bn3 (anthropogenic NOx emissions increased by factor of 3)  Run Bv3 (anthropogenic VOC emissions increased by factor of 3)  Run Bn3v3 (anthro VOC & NOx emissions increased by factor of 3)  Round 2 Diagnostic Sensitivity Runs (across-the-board scalar changes) [new for 23 Dec ’03 Bi-Weekly Call]  Run Bnp3v3 (NOx decreased, VOC increased by factors of 3)  Run B No Dry Deposition (dry deposition zeroed-out)  Objectives  ‘Bounding’ simulations to assess model response (overall and in SJV) to precursor emissions and key process changes.  Pertinent emissions sensitivity and process change simulations performed in previous (e.g., SARMAP) and ongoing CCOS (e.g., Bay Area) modeling studies examined also.

3 OThree Chemistry CAMx4 Diagnostic Experiments: Round 2

4 OThree Chemistry 18 Sept ’00 Ozone Peaks in the SJV

5 OThree Chemistry 19 Sept ’00 Ozone Peaks in the SJV

6 OThree Chemistry 20 Sept ’00 Ozone Peaks in the SJV

7 OThree Chemistry Spatial Mean Ozone Time Series: SJV Domain Base B Sens Bn3: (NOx up x3)

8 OThree Chemistry Spatial Mean Ozone Time Series: SJV Domain Sens Bv3: (VOC up x3) Sens Bn3v3: (VOC, NOx up x3)

9 OThree Chemistry Spatial Mean Ozone Time Series: SJV Domain Sens Bnp3v3: (VOC up x 3, NOx down x3) Sens B No Dry Dep:

10 OThree Chemistry Hourly Ozone on 18 Sept ’00: 1500 PST Base B Max Obs: ppb Max Pred: 96.1 ppb

11 OThree Chemistry Hourly Ozone on 18 Sept ’00: 1500 PST Sens Bn3 Max Obs: ppb Max Pred: 93.3 ppb Anthropogenic NOx Emissions Increased by Factor of 3

12 OThree Chemistry Hourly Ozone on 18 Sept ’00: 1500 PST Sens Bv3 Max Obs: ppb Max Pred: ppb Anthropogenic VOC Emissions Increased by Factor of 3

13 OThree Chemistry Hourly Ozone on 18 Sept ’00: 1500 PST Sens Bn3v3 Max Obs: ppb Max Pred: ppb Anthropogenic NOx & VOC Emissions Increased by Factor of 3

14 OThree Chemistry Hourly Ozone on 18 Sept ’00: 1500 PST Base Bnp3v3 Max Obs: ppb Max Pred: ppb Anthropogenic NOx Decreased, VOCs Increased by Factors of 3

15 OThree Chemistry Hourly Ozone on 18 Sept ’00: 1500 PST Base B No Dry Dep Max Obs: ppb Max Pred: ppb Base B with Dry Deposition Set to Zero

16 OThree Chemistry Ozone Time Series: Parlier (045) Base B Sens Bn3: (NOx up x3)

17 OThree Chemistry Ozone Time Series: Parlier (045) Sens Bv3: (VOC up x3) Sens Bn3v3: (VOC, NOx up x3)

18 OThree Chemistry Ozone Time Series: Parlier (045) Sens Bpn3v3: (VOC up x3; NOx dn x3) Sens B No Dry Dep:

19 OThree Chemistry Ozone Time Series: Arvin (029) Base B Sens Bn3: (NOx up x3)

20 OThree Chemistry Ozone Time Series: Arvin (029) Sens Bv3: (VOC up x3) Sens Bn3v3: (VOC, NOx up x3)

21 OThree Chemistry Ozone Time Series: Arvin (029) Sens Bpn3v3: (VOC up x3; NOx dn x3) Sens B No Dry Dep:

22 OThree Chemistry Findings of Round 2 Diagnostic Runs  Runs are diagnostic only; not intended to imply California inventories possess factor of 3 systematic errors across all categories.  Scalar increases (by factor of 3) in anthropogenic VOC and/or NOx inventories yield much greater ozone changes compared with MM5 sensitivity experiments.  Factor of 3 increase in NOx emissions substantially degrades model performance in the SJV and across the 4 km domain.  Factor of 3 increase in VOC emissions improves model performance statistically and graphically in the SJV; improvements across the 4 km domain are less.

23 OThree Chemistry Findings (cont.)  Factor of 3 VOC & NOx increases do not yield significant model performance improvement  Factor of 3 increase in VOC and decrease in NOx systematically degrades model performance  Removal of dry deposition process systematically degrades model performance  Of all the runs performed thusfar in Rounds 1 and 2, the VOC x3 scaleup run (Bv3) offers the most insight into the potential reasons for the current systematic underprediction of ozone in the Sept ’00 episode; particular focus is being placed in the ongoing Process Analysis activities on the role of VOC emissions in producing ozone in the SJV.


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