1. Effective Public and Private Partnerships in Climate Prediction and Services John A Dutton Prescient Weather Ltd The World Climate Service The Pennsylvania State University Copyright © 2010 John A Dutton

2. E NERGY U TILITY How will demand for power and regulations about emissions change? Will I have water for my hydro-power turbines? Where should I build wind farms? R AILROAD How will my customers and their needs evolve? Where should I be building track over the next century? W INE P RODUCER Where should I be buying land for my vineyards two to four decades out? W ATER A UTHORITY What is the probability that I will have sufficient water supplies for my customers for the next century or more? What we can do now to improve the situation? G OVERNMENT What must we do to ensure that our economy and nation remain vigorous and vital as the climate evolves?

3. Copyright © 2010 John A Dutton 2 x 2 x 2 x 2

4. Copyright © 2010 John A Dutton Future Physical Environment Future Economic And Political Environment Future Economic And Political Environment Enterprise Prediction Model Enterprise Prediction Model Predicted Enterprise Performance Predicted Enterprise Performance Future

5. Copyright © 2010 John A Dutton Enterprise and Private Advisors C Management W Future Environment Federal Agencies, Industry Support Y Enterprise Performance Future

6. Copyright © 2010 John A Dutton A New Era for Weather and Climate Services… Some components of the atmospheric sciences will be increasingly involved in designing the decision process and less in predicting atmospheric evolution. Dutton, BAMS, 2002

7. Copyright © 2010 John A Dutton UNWISE CLIMATE … Threats to the FAIR WEATHER Model Data and Prediction Problem Solving National Interest Local Interest Data and Prediction Systems Decision Support Systems NOAA …Private, Local Where should the boundaries be? Who will manage them?

8. Copyright © 2010 John A Dutton WISE CLIMATE will require an optimum combination of efforts by federal, state, and local governments, the private sector, and academia. Federal governmentClimate forecasts and projections, from months to a century or more, largely from supercomputer prediction and simulation AcademiaNew approaches for understanding climate change and for developing long-term enterprise strategies that will facilitate success despite uncertainty about climate Private weather and climate firms Interpretation of climate scenarios; incorporation of climate projections in enterprise performance models; assistance in formulating and managing the strategic assessment and decision process for clients As with FAIR WEATHER, we must create a process for WISE CLIMATE

9. Effective Public and Private Partnerships in Climate Prediction and Services John A Dutton Prescient Weather Ltd The World Climate Service The Pennsylvania State University Copyright © 2010 John A Dutton

10. References Dutton, John A., 2010. Weather, Climate, and the Energy Industry: A Story of SunlightSome Old, Some New. Management of Weather and Climate Risk in the Energy Industry, Alberto Troccoli, Ed., NATO Science for Peace Program, Springer, 344 pp. 2002, Opportunities and Priorities in a New Era for Weather and Climate Services, Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 83, 1303-1312, 2002. National Research Council, 2003. Fair Weather: Effective Partnerships in Weather and Climate Services, National Academies Press, 220 pp. National Research Council, 2009. Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate, National Academies Press, 188 pp. Cover photo From http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/User:Musia! And licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license.

11. Copyright © 2010 John A Dutton