1. Climate Change Mitigation Policy for Agriculture in Canada: Horizontal Policy Integration June 19, 2004 UNFCCC Workshop, Bonn, Germany Dr. Robert J. MacGregor Dr. Marie Boehm

2. The Role of Agriculture in GHG Mitigation Agriculture responsible for about 10% of national anthropogenic GHG emissions Most agricultural emissions are non-point source in nature and vary by climatic and soil conditions Mostly non-energy based, nitrous oxide and methane from complex biological processes Carbon can be sequestered in soils (sinks) by implementing some types of land management practices GHG mitigation strategies lead to other environmental and economic co-benefits Sustainable development is a priority for Canada and is reflected in the federal government’s Agricultural Policy Framework (APF) Sustainable development is a priority for Canada and is reflected in the federal government’s Agricultural Policy Framework (APF)

3. Agriculture has many unique opportunities to manage greenhouse gases... The challenge is to develop policy integrated with the APF outcomes related to economic and environmental performance The challenge is to develop policy integrated with the APF outcomes related to economic and environmental performance Reduce Greenhouse gas emissions Agricultural GHG Management Innovate to replace fossil fuels with bio-based energy, chemicals and materials Replace Atmospheric C to store in soils and perennial crops Remove The climate is going to change requiring adaptation (ie water management) Respond

4. GHG Mitigation Potential from Agriculture Sink Enhancing Management Practices Increase no-till (  350% since 1991) Decrease summerfallow (  40% since 1991) Increase hay in crop rotation (  27% since 1991) Improve grazing management Increase permanent cover Increase shelterbelts GHG Source-Reducing Management Practices Improve nutrient management Improve feeding management Improve manure management Sink Enhancing Management Practices Increase no-till (  350% since 1991) Decrease summerfallow (  40% since 1991) Increase hay in crop rotation (  27% since 1991) Improve grazing management Increase permanent cover Increase shelterbelts GHG Source-Reducing Management Practices Improve nutrient management Improve feeding management Improve manure management Soil sinks represent ~90% of medium-term mitigation potential Time Change in Soil Carbon (Sinks) Old managementNew management Organic C

5. Potential reductions from Business as Usual (BAU) [5 to 20 Mt with incentives] Potential reductions from Business as Usual (BAU) [5 to 20 Mt with incentives] Gap (6.5 Mt) Gap (6.5 Mt) Mt CO 2 e BAU without sinks BAU with sinks Source: Canadian Economic and Emission Model, Agriculture (CEEMA) 6% below 1990 Agriculture in National Climate Change Plan, 2002: 10 MT BAU plus maybe 10MT more

6. APF Provincial Environmental Targets: Co-benefits of GHG Mitigation Environment is one of the major pillars of the Agriculture Policy Framework (APF) in addition to food safety & quality, business risk management, innovation and renewal Within Canadian federation, federal, provincial and territorial governments have jointly committed to set specific environmental outcome targets in the areas of air, water and soil quality, and biodiversity Targets must be quantitative, measurable and meaningful: –Scientific link from farm practice to the environment –Based on adoption of Beneficial Management Practices (BMP’s) for improving environmental performance –Identify BMP’s where economic incentives also exist

7. Integrating Science and Economics for Policy Agricultural Policy Framework - Develop meaningful and measurable environmental and farm management goals IPCC Guidelines Systems Approach (assess direct and indirect emissions of CO 2, CH 4 and N 2 O) Systems Approach (assess direct and indirect emissions of CO 2, CH 4 and N 2 O) Development of Mitigation Scenarios Canadian Scientific Research Expert Opinion -F/P/T government -Industry -Academics Expert Opinion -F/P/T government -Industry -Academics Changes in GHG sources and sinks Economic Impacts Economic Impacts Environmental Co-benefits of GHG Mitigation Environmental Co-benefits of GHG Mitigation Agri-Environmental Indicator Project Agri-Environmental Indicator Project Integrated economic/ environmental models -economic component -GHG component -links to other AEIs Integrated economic/ environmental models -economic component -GHG component -links to other AEIs

8. APF Analysis Builds on Climate Change Selected Scenarios (best management practices) Soil Management −Increased use of conservation tillage −Decreased use of summerfallow −Increased use of forage in rotations −Conversion of marginal land to permanent cover Pasture Management –Increased use of complimentary and rotational grazing Nutrient Management –Better management of matching N applied to crop requirements Livestock Management –Improve management of protein in diets Agroforestry –Increased use of forestry on marginal agricultural land Selected Scenarios (best management practices) Soil Management −Increased use of conservation tillage −Decreased use of summerfallow −Increased use of forage in rotations −Conversion of marginal land to permanent cover Pasture Management –Increased use of complimentary and rotational grazing Nutrient Management –Better management of matching N applied to crop requirements Livestock Management –Improve management of protein in diets Agroforestry –Increased use of forestry on marginal agricultural land Suite of Agri-environmental Indicators (AEI) Greenhouse Gases Soil Carbon Water Erosion Wind Erosion Wind Erosion (Prairies) Residual Soil Nitrogen IROWC-N (East) Wildlife Habitat Suite of Agri-environmental Indicators (AEI) Greenhouse Gases Soil Carbon Water Erosion Wind Erosion Wind Erosion (Prairies) Residual Soil Nitrogen IROWC-N (East) Wildlife Habitat

9. National Summary of the Percentage Change in AEIs from 2008 BAU for Low, Medium and High Adoption Rates Analysis informs federal-provincial negotiations leading to inclusion of specific GHG and other outcome targets in bilateral agreements Results of APF Analysis – Combined Scenario

10. APF Environmental Outcome Targets For Quebec outcome target changes are: –Residual Nitrogen – a reduction of 8% (about 2kg N/ha) –Risk to Water Quality – Nitrogen – a reduction of 7% –Risk to Soil Erosion from Water – a reduction of 1% (50kg/ha/yr) –Soil Carbon – an increase in the annual change from -0.15 to 0.11 Mt –GHG Emissions – a reduction of 5% (0.4 Mt CO2 e/yr) –Wildlife Habitat Availability – an increase of 0.7% For Manitoba outcome target changes are: –Residual Nitrogen – a reduction of 12% –Risk to Soil Erosion from Water – a reduction of 16% –Soil Carbon – an increase in annual change by 373% (from a low base) –GHG Emissions – a reduction of 22% (about 2Mt CO2 e) –Wildlife Habitat Availability – an increase of 5% APF Environmental Outcome Targets will become basis for federal/provincial/territorial policies and programs APF Environmental Outcome Targets will become basis for federal/provincial/territorial policies and programs

11. Policy Tools to Achieve APF Outcome Targets: Looking for the Win-Win Environmental Farm Plans; address high priority environmental issues Cost-shared financial incentives for implementation of BMP’s to address environmental risks Trees and shrubs for shelterbelts; Renewable energy from biodisgesters demonstrations; Ethanol from grain and cellulose Research into next generation BMP’s (Model Farm, and Environmental Technology Assessment) Working with stakeholders to increase awareness and promote adoption (GHG Mitigation Program) Development of an Offset Credit System for GHG to work in concert with other drivers Farmers manage complex businesses and their challenge is to "put it all together” to stay in business and meet society’s goals

12. APF provides us with a way to manage forward for sustainable development All levels of government and stakeholders are involved (federal, provincial, producers, processors, consumers, NGO’s) Quantified Targets and Accountability are powerful public policy tools Planning tools, such as Environmental Farm Planning to deal with environmental and structural heterogeneity, are critical Developing a bio-product/bio-mass based industry is fully consistent with a “Replace” strategy Deliver large quantity of soil sinks, some reductions and many co- benefits at a low cost to society (10 to 20Mt) Finding more efficient and effective ways to manage carbon, nitrogen and energy should contribute to the economic and environmental elements of sustainable development Finding more efficient and effective ways to manage carbon, nitrogen and energy should contribute to the economic and environmental elements of sustainable development