1. 1 ON HUMAN POPULATION, GLOBAL NUCLEAR WAR, AND THE SURVIVAL OF PLANET EARTH 26 OCTOBER 2000 J GEORGE CALDWELL PhD GABORONE, BOTSWANA

2. 2 SUMMARY TOPIC: THE LIKELIHOOD OF GLOBAL NUCLEAR WAR, AND HOW IT RELATES TO THE HUMAN POPULATION PROBLEM THESIS: THE LIKELIHOOD OF GLOBAL NUCLEAR WAR IS INCREASING DRAMATICALLY BECAUSE OF HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH WHAT CAN BE DONE ABOUT THE PROBLEM?

3. 3 THE STATE OF THE WORLD POPULATION: EXPLODING. 6 BILLION, 80 MILLION MORE EVERY YEAR (1.3% ANNUAL GROWTH RATE) INDUSTRIALIZATION: EXPLODING. 3% ANNUAL INCREASE IN PRODUCTION ENVIRONMENT: RAPID DESTRUCTION DESTRUCTION OF FORESTS POLLUTION OF AIR, LAND, SEAS DESTRUCTION OF WILDLIFE HABITAT, MASS EXTINCTION

4. 4 EFFECT ON BIODIVERSITY: MASS EXTINCTION (THE “6TH” EXTINCTION). 30,000 SPECIES PER YEAR (1.7 MILLION KNOWN SPECIES OF EST. 5-30 MILLION) SUMMARY: LARGE HUMAN POPULATION AND INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY ARE EXTERMINATING VAST NUMBERS OF SPECIES, AND RISKING THE DESTRUCTION OF THE BIOSPHERE STATE OF THE WORLD (CONT’D)

5. 5 CURRENT TRENDS ECOLOGICALLY DIVERSE FORESTS BEING DESTROYED AT THE RATE OF 16 MILLION HECTARES PER YEAR 94% OF FORESTS OF 60 YEARS AGO DESTROYED, FORESTS DISAPPEARED IN 25 COUNTRIES IN PAST 20 YEARS EVEN IF BIRTH RATES MAGICALLY DROP TO REPLACEMENT LEVEL EVERYWHERE, POPULATION WILL SOAR TO 9 BILLION BY 2050 CURRENT INDUSTRIAL POPULATION = 1/6 OF TOTAL. ALL COUNTRIES WANT TO INDUSTRIALIZE

6. 6 CURRENT TRENDS (CONT’D) SUMMARY: POPULATION WILL SOAR, INDUSTRIALIZATION WILL DOUBLE EVERY 18 YEARS ALL THE WORLD’S COUNTRIES ARE COMMITTED TO CONTINUED GROWTH (POPULATION AND INDUSTRIAL) UNDER THE CURRENT SYSTEM OF WORLD GOVERNMENT, BY 2050: 1.5 MILLION SPECIES WILL BE DESTROYED MOST WILDLIFE HABITAT DESTROYED ALL PETROLEUM GONE POSSIBLE DEATH OF THE BIOSPHERE

7. 7 WHAT CAN CHANGE THINGS? BIRTH RATE REDUCTION: NO (TO 9 BILLION BY 2050, EVEN UNDER “WILDEST” ASSUMPTIONS) DISEASE: EVEN HIV/AIDS IS HAVING NO LONG-TERM IMPACT ON POP. GROWTH FAMINE: AS LONG AS FOSSIL FUELS LAST, THE WORLD CAN EASILY FEED 9 BILLION (E.G., DESTROY ALL FORESTS, STOP EATING MEAT) ASTEROID, GREENHOUSE EFFECT: YES, BUT THEN EVERYTHING IS GONE, ANYWAY WAR: GLOBAL NUCLEAR WAR CAN DRAMATICALLY REDUCE POPULATION AND INDUSTRIALIZATION, WITHOUT DESTROYING THE BIOSPHERE

8. 8 WHAT CAN WAR ACCOMPLISH? USA AND RUSSIA EACH POSSESS 7,000 STRATEGIC NUCLEAR WEAPONS UNDER START II, EACH WILL STILL HAVE 3,500 BY 2007 USA AND RUSSIA ARE BOTH COMMITTED TO PEACE. WHAT ELSE IS POSSIBLE? AN ATTACK OF 1,000 “SUITCASE” BOMBS CAN DESTROY 3/4 OF EARTH’S TOTAL CITY POPULATION (THERE ARE ABOUT 3,500 CITIES OF POP. OVER 100,000)

9. 9 WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF GLOBAL NUCLEAR WAR? BETWEEN USA AND RUSSIA: LOW FROM A SUITCASE-BOMB ATTACK FROM A “ROGUE NATION” OR TERRORIST GROUP: HIGH MOTIVE: “POLITICS OF ENVY”: 80 MILLION MORE DESPERATELY POOR PEOPLE EVERY YEAR GLOBAL NUCLEAR WAR CAN STOP THE RELENTLESS DESTRUCTION OF SPECIES BY INDUSTRIALIZATION AND OVERPOPULATION NO OTHER SOLUTION IS AT HAND

10. 10 WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF GLOBAL NUCLEAR WAR? (CONT’D) MOTIVE (CONT’D): HALF OF WORLD’S PETROLEUM GONE, REMAINDER GONE BY 2050 USING SOLAR ENERGY, THE PLANET CAN SUPPORT ONLY 300-500 MILLION PEOPLE AT A LOW LEVEL OF LIVING, OR TEN MILLION AT A HIGH LEVEL OF LIVING AS FOSSIL FUELS DECLINE, MASS STARVATION WILL BEGIN. ALL NATIONS WILL NOT SIT AROUND AND ALL STARVE TO DEATH…GLOBAL WAR WILL COME.

11. 11 MOTIVE CLEAR, WHAT ABOUT MEANS, OPPORTUNITY? SUFFICIENT PLUTONIUM HAS BEEN LOST TO PRODUCE 1,000 NUCLEAR BOMBS WORLD’S URANIUM SUPPLY WILL LAST ONLY IF USED IN FAST BREEDER REACTORS, WHICH PRODUCE PLUTONIUM -- LOTS OF IT, AND EVERYWHERE! ROGUE NATIONS ARE ALREADY SOLICITING PLUTONIUM (“DEMAND”) RUSSIA’S SCIENTISTS ARE ON HARD TIMES AND RUSSIA’S FAST BREEDER REACTORS ARE PRODUCING MUCH PLUTONIUM (“SUPPLY”) WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF GLOBAL NUCLEAR WAR? (CONT’D)

12. 12 WHAT CAN BE DONE TO ADDRESS THIS PROBLEM? TWO APPROACHES: 1. ATTEMPT TO REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF NUCLEAR WAR -- BUT ALL ATTEMPTS TO DO THIS HAVE FAILED (HUMAN POP. AND INDUSTRIALIZATION CONTINUE TO GROW) 2. RECOGNIZE THAT THE LIKELIHOOD OF WAR IS GREAT, AND THE FACTORS THAT ARE CONTRIBUTING TO IT ARE INCREASING IN STRENGTH, AND PREPARE FOR THE POST-WAR ERA

13. 13 PLANNING FOR THE POST-WAR ERA WHAT TO DO? TAKE COUNTERMEASURES TO REDUCE THE DESTRUCTION FROM WAR, AND FACILITATE POSTWAR RECOVERY PLAN, ANALYZE, DISTRIBUTE INFORMATION ESTABLISH DISTRIBUTED SEED BANKS ESTABLISH LARGE NATURE RESERVES PREPARE FOR A REDUCED WORLD POPULATION DEVELOP APPROACHES FOR PLANETARY MANAGEMENT CONDUCT SOCIAL / POLITICAL / MILITARY / RELIGIOUS PREPARATION

14. 14 OPTIMAL HUMAN POPULATION IF GLOBAL WAR IS VERY LIKELY, WHAT SIZE AND COMPOSITION HUMAN POPULATION SHOULD THE VICTOR SEEK? PROPOSAL: A POPULATION SIZE AND COMPOSITION THAT MAXIMIZES THE LONG-TERM SURVIVABILITY OF HUMAN BEINGS AND OTHER SPECIES SOLAR ENERGY CAN SUPPORT 300-500 MILLION PEOPLE AT A LOW LEVEL OF LIVING, 10 MILLION PEOPLE AT A HIGH LEVEL OF LIVING UNDER PRIMITIVE AGRICULTURE, THE PLANET SUPPORTED 300 MILLION FOR 10,000 YEARS UNDER HUNTER-GATHERER SYSTEM, THE PLANET SUPPORTED 5-20 MILLION FOR MILLIONS OF YEARS

15. 15 OPTIMAL HUMAN POPULATION: THE SMALLEST POPULATION THAT CAN BE SUSTAINED FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME. (MINIMIZE THE PROBABILITY OF EXTINCTION OF MANKIND AND DESTRUCTION OF THE BIOSPHERE) PROPOSED SOLUTION (“MINIMAL REGRET” POPULATION): SINGLE-NATION INDUSTRIAL POPULATION OF 5 MILLION (“CITY”) GLOBALLY-DISTRIBUTED HUNTER-GATHERER POPULATION OF 5 MILLION (“COUNTRY”) OPTIMAL HUMAN POPULATION (CONT’D)

16. 16 FOR MORE INFORMATION... HTTP://WWW.FOUNDATION.BW HTTP://WWW.CHURCHOFNATURE.COM HTTP://WWW.DIEOFF.COM HTTP://WWW.GLOBALHOTMAP.ORG HTTP://WWW.OVERPOPULATION.ORG HTTP://WWW.NPG.ORG