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1 THE END OF THE WORLD 12 FEBRUARY 2003 J GEORGE CALDWELL PhD LUSAKA, ZAMBIA.

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Presentation on theme: "1 THE END OF THE WORLD 12 FEBRUARY 2003 J GEORGE CALDWELL PhD LUSAKA, ZAMBIA."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 THE END OF THE WORLD 12 FEBRUARY 2003 J GEORGE CALDWELL PhD LUSAKA, ZAMBIA

2 2 INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY TOPIC: THE END OF THE INDUSTRIAL AGE ON PLANET EARTH –WHY AND HOW IT WILL LIKELY HAPPEN –A BETTER SYSTEM OF PLANETARY MANAGEMENT AND HOW TO IMPLEMENT IT AFTER THE INDUSTRIAL AGE IS OVER POINTS OF DISCUSSION: –THE CURRENT SITUATION AND CURRENT TRENDS –RELATIONSHIP OF GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND POPULATION TO ENERGY AVAILABILITY INDUSTRIAL AGE OVER BY 2050 (END OF PETROLEUM AGE); POPULATION FALLS TO PRE-INDUSTRIAL LEVELS –WILL INDUSTRIAL AGE LAST TO 2050? WHAT MIGHT CHANGE THIS? (FAMINE, PLAGUE, WAR) –THE POTENTIAL IMPACT AND LIKELIHOOD OF GLOBAL NUCLEAR WAR

3 3 INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY (CONT’D) –WHAT CAN BE DONE (TO REDUCE FURTHER DAMAGE TO THE ENVIRONMENT, TO ENHANCE CHANCES OF LONG-TERM SURVIVAL FOR MANKIND AND THE REST OF THE BIOSPHERE)? DEVELOPMENT AND DISSEMINATION OF INFORMATION ABOUT PLANETARY MANAGEMENT FOR LONG-TERM SURVIVAL –OPTIMAL POPULATION (SIZE AND COMPOSITION) FOR LONG-TERM SURVIVAL (MINIMAL-REGRET POPULATION) –ALTERNATIVE PARADIGMS FOR PLANETARY MANAGEMENT (SYNARCHY) –FOUNDATION WEBSITES, DEPARTMENTS OF PLANETARY MANAGEMENT PRESERVATION OF SPECIES (SEED BANKS, “ISLANDS”) PLANNING AND PREPARATION FOR ESTABLISHMENT OF A NEW WORLD ORDER TO FOLLOW THE INDUSTRIAL AGE

4 4 THE STATE OF THE WORLD POPULATION: EXPLODING. 6 BILLION, 80 MILLION MORE EVERY YEAR (1.3% ANNUAL GROWTH RATE) INDUSTRIALIZATION: EXPLODING. 3% ANNUAL INCREASE IN PRODUCTION ENVIRONMENT: RAPID DESTRUCTION POLLUTION OF AIR, LAND, SEAS DESTRUCTION OF WILDLIFE HABITAT, MASS EXTINCTION DESTRUCTION OF FORESTS

5 5 EFFECT ON BIODIVERSITY: MASS EXTINCTION (THE “6TH” EXTINCTION). 30,000 SPECIES PER YEAR (1.7 MILLION KNOWN SPECIES OF EST MILLION) SUMMARY: LARGE HUMAN POPULATION AND INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY ARE EXTERMINATING VAST NUMBERS OF SPECIES, AND RISKING THE DESTRUCTION OF THE BIOSPHERE STATE OF THE WORLD (CONT’D)

6 6 CURRENT TRENDS ECOLOGICALLY DIVERSE FORESTS BEING DESTROYED AT THE RATE OF 16 MILLION HECTARES PER YEAR 94% OF FORESTS OF 60 YEARS AGO DESTROYED, FORESTS DISAPPEARED IN 25 COUNTRIES IN PAST 20 YEARS EVEN IF BIRTH RATES MAGICALLY DROP TO REPLACEMENT LEVEL EVERYWHERE, POPULATION WILL SOAR TO 9 BILLION BY 2050 CURRENT INDUSTRIAL POPULATION = 1/6 OF TOTAL. ALL COUNTRIES WANT TO INDUSTRIALIZE

7 7 CURRENT TRENDS (CONT’D) SUMMARY: POPULATION WILL SOAR, INDUSTRIALIZATION WILL DOUBLE EVERY 18 YEARS ALL THE WORLD’S COUNTRIES ARE COMMITTED TO CONTINUED GROWTH (POPULATION AND INDUSTRIAL) UNDER THE CURRENT SYSTEM OF WORLD GOVERNMENT, BY 2050: 1.5 MILLION SPECIES WILL BE DESTROYED MOST WILDLIFE HABITAT DESTROYED ALL PETROLEUM GONE POSSIBLE DEATH OF THE BIOSPHERE

8 8 CURRENT TRENDS (CONT’D) HALF OF WORLD’S PETROLEUM IS GONE, REMAINDER GONE BY 2050 USING SOLAR ENERGY, THE PLANET CAN SUPPORT ONLY MILLION PEOPLE AT A LOW LEVEL OF LIVING, OR TEN MILLION PEOPLE AT A HIGH LEVEL OF LIVING

9 9 WHAT CAN CHANGE THINGS? BIRTH RATE REDUCTION: NO (TO 9 BILLION BY 2050, EVEN UNDER “WILDEST” ASSUMPTIONS) ASTEROID, VOLCANOES, GREENHOUSE EFFECT: YES, BUT THEN EVERYTHING IS GONE, ANYWAY FAMINE: AS LONG AS FOSSIL FUELS LAST, THE WORLD CAN EASILY FEED 9 BILLION (E.G., DESTROY ALL FORESTS, STOP EATING MEAT); GMOs? DISEASE: EVEN HIV/AIDS IS HAVING NO LONG-TERM IMPACT ON POP. GROWTH WAR: GLOBAL NUCLEAR WAR CAN DRAMATICALLY REDUCE POPULATION AND INDUSTRIALIZATION, WITHOUT DESTROYING THE BIOSPHERE

10 10 WHAT CAN WAR ACCOMPLISH? USA AND RUSSIA EACH POSSESS 7,000 STRATEGIC NUCLEAR WEAPONS UNDER START II, EACH WILL STILL HAVE 3,500 BY 2007 USA AND RUSSIA ARE BOTH COMMITTED TO PEACE. WHAT ELSE IS POSSIBLE? AN ATTACK OF 1,000 “SUITCASE” BOMBS CAN DESTROY 3/4 OF EARTH’S TOTAL CITY POPULATION (THERE ARE ABOUT 3,500 CITIES OF POP. OVER 100,000)

11 11 WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF GLOBAL NUCLEAR WAR? BETWEEN USA AND RUSSIA: LOW FROM A SUITCASE-BOMB ATTACK FROM A “ROGUE NATION” OR TERRORIST GROUP: HIGH MOTIVE: “POLITICS OF ENVY”: 80 MILLION MORE DESPERATELY POOR PEOPLE EVERY YEAR GLOBAL NUCLEAR WAR CAN STOP THE RELENTLESS DESTRUCTION OF SPECIES BY INDUSTRIALIZATION AND OVERPOPULATION NO OTHER SOLUTION (TO ENVIRONMENTAL DESTRUCTION OR HUMAN MISERY) IS AT HAND

12 12 WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF GLOBAL NUCLEAR WAR? (CONT’D) MOTIVE (CONT’D): AS FOSSIL FUELS DECLINE, MASS STARVATION WILL BEGIN. ALL NATIONS WILL NOT SIT AROUND AND ALL STARVE TO DEATH…GLOBAL WAR WILL COME. TIMING: THE SOONER GLOBAL WAR OCCURS, THE MORE SPECIES ARE SAVED FROM EXTINCTION. SOONER IS BETTER THAN LATER: IF WAIT TOO LONG, NOTHING LEFT TO WIN!

13 13 MOTIVE CLEAR, WHAT ABOUT MEANS, OPPORTUNITY? SUFFICIENT PLUTONIUM HAS BEEN LOST TO PRODUCE 1,000 NUCLEAR BOMBS WORLD’S URANIUM SUPPLY WILL LAST ONLY IF USED IN FAST BREEDER REACTORS, WHICH PRODUCE PLUTONIUM -- LOTS OF IT, AND EVERYWHERE! ROGUE NATIONS ARE ALREADY SOLICITING PLUTONIUM (“DEMAND”) RUSSIA’S SCIENTISTS ARE ON HARD TIMES AND RUSSIA’S FAST BREEDER REACTORS ARE PRODUCING MUCH PLUTONIUM (“SUPPLY”) DON’T NEED MISSILES OR AIRCRAFT: SUITCASE BOMBS WORK FINE (MASS IMMIGRATION, TRANSPORTATION, POROUS BORDERS) WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF GLOBAL NUCLEAR WAR? (CONT’D)

14 14 WHAT CAN BE DONE TO ADDRESS THIS PROBLEM? TWO APPROACHES: 1. ATTEMPT TO REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF NUCLEAR WAR OR OTHER GLOBAL CATASTROPHE -- BUT ALL ATTEMPTS TO DO THIS HAVE FAILED (HUMAN POP. AND INDUSTRIALIZATION CONTINUE TO GROW) 2. RECOGNIZE THAT THE LIKELIHOOD OF WAR OR OTHER CATASTROPHE IS GREAT, AND THE FACTORS THAT ARE CONTRIBUTING TO IT ARE INCREASING IN STRENGTH, AND PREPARE FOR THE POST-INDUSTRIAL ERA

15 15 PLANNING FOR THE POST-INDUSTRIAL ERA WHAT TO DO? TAKE COUNTERMEASURES TO REDUCE THE DESTRUCTION FROM WAR OR OTHER CATASTROPHE, AND FACILITATE RECOVERY PLAN, ANALYZE, DISTRIBUTE INFORMATION ON WHAT IS HAPPENING, ON OPTIMAL HUMAN POPULATION SIZE AND COMPOSITION, ON PLANETARY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM FOR LONG-TERM SURVIVAL ESTABLISH DISTRIBUTED SEED BANKS ESTABLISH LARGE NATURE RESERVES PREPARE FOR A REDUCED WORLD POPULATION DEVELOP APPROACHES FOR PLANETARY MANAGEMENT CONDUCT SOCIAL / POLITICAL / MILITARY / RELIGIOUS PREPARATION

16 16 OPTIMAL HUMAN POPULATION IF GLOBAL WAR IS VERY LIKELY, WHAT SIZE AND COMPOSITION HUMAN POPULATION SHOULD THE VICTOR SEEK? PROPOSAL: A POPULATION SIZE AND COMPOSITION THAT MAXIMIZES THE LONG-TERM SURVIVABILITY OF HUMAN BEINGS AND OTHER SPECIES SOLAR ENERGY CAN SUPPORT MILLION PEOPLE AT A LOW LEVEL OF LIVING, 10 MILLION PEOPLE AT A HIGH LEVEL OF LIVING UNDER PRIMITIVE AGRICULTURE, THE PLANET SUPPORTED 300 MILLION FOR 10,000 YEARS UNDER HUNTER-GATHERER SYSTEM, THE PLANET SUPPORTED 5-20 MILLION FOR MILLIONS OF YEARS

17 17 OPTIMAL HUMAN POPULATION: THE SMALLEST POPULATION THAT CAN BE SUSTAINED FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME. (MINIMIZE THE PROBABILITY OF EXTINCTION OF MANKIND AND DESTRUCTION OF THE BIOSPHERE) PROPOSED SOLUTION (“MINIMAL REGRET” POPULATION): SINGLE-NATION INDUSTRIAL POPULATION OF 5 MILLION (“CITY”) GLOBALLY-DISTRIBUTED HUNTER-GATHERER POPULATION OF 5 MILLION (“COUNTRY”) OPTIMAL HUMAN POPULATION (CONT’D)

18 18 ALTERNATIVE PARADIGMS FOR PLANETARY MANAGEMENT CURRENT SYSTEM (ECONOMICS, CAPITALISM, LIBERAL DEMOCRACY, 200+ INDEPENDENT NATIONS) WAS GREAT FOR EXPLORING AND DEVELOPING THE PLANET, BUT IS NOW RAVAGING THE BIOSPHERE NEED A SINGLE HIERARCHICAL, AUTHORITATIVE ORGANIZATION IN CHARGE OF THE PLANET’S MANAGEMENT MORE LIKE A BUSINESS, OR MILITARY OPERATION, OR RELIGIOUS ORDER, THAN A TRADITIONAL GOVERNMENT MORE LIKE THE MGMT. OF A SHIP (SPACESHIP EARTH) EXAMPLES: PLATO’S REPUBLIC: GUARDIANS (RULERS (GOV’T)), AUXILIARIES (MIL., EXEC., POLICE), REST (EC. ACTIVITIES) SAINT-YVES D’ALVEYDRE’S SYNARCHY: GOVERNMENTAL AUTHORITY CONTOLS RELIGION, MILITARY, EDUCATION

19 19 CONCLUSION THE INDUSTRIAL AGE WILL END BY 2050, WHEN FOSSIL FUEL IS GONE GLOBAL HUMAN POPULATION WILL FALL TO A FEW HUNDRED MILLION OR LESS CATASTROPHE THEORY (RENE THOM): DEFINITION: DESTABILIZATION OF A DYNAMIC SYSTEM CATASTROPHES ARE INEVITABLE WITH CAREFUL PLANNING AND PREPARATION, THE OUTCOME CAN BE AFFECTED, THE DAMAGE REDUCED A LONG-TERM-SUSTAINABLE PLANETARY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM CAN BE ESTABLISHED BY: DETERMINING FEASIBLE PLANETARY MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS SENSITIZING THE POPULATION TO THE NEED FOR CHANGE DISSEMINATING INFORMATION, SO THAT IT IS AVAILABLE WHEN NEEDED

20 20 CONCLUSION (CONT’D) THE CHOICE FACING MANKIND TODAY IS: EXTINCTION OF MANKIND MANKIND SURVIVES, BUT IN A SEVERELY DAMAGED BIOSPHERE THE MASS SPECIES EXTINCTION IS IS STOPPED, AND MANKIND SURVIVES IN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME BIOSPHERE IN WHICH IT EVOLVED THE INDUSTRIAL AGE WILL END SOON AND QUICKLY; THE TIME TO ACT TO PREPARE FOR A BETTER FUTURE IS NOW. THE CURRENT SYSTEM OF PLANETARY MANAGEMENT IS DESTROYING THE PLANET; A SYNARCHIC GOVERNMENT OF A MINIMAL-REGRET POPULATION WILL ASSURE LONG-TERM SURVIVAL IN A HEALTHY, BOUNTEOUS BIOSPHERE THE CHOICE IS YOURS, AND YOUR GENERATIONS: WHAT WILL IT BE?

21 21 FOR MORE INFORMATION


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