1. MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit Reducing agricultural carbon emissions: What’s public health got to do with it? Scottish Faculty of Public Health 6 th November 2014 S Vittal Katikireddi E-mail: vittal.katikireddi@glasgow.ac.uk Twitter: @vkatikireddi Clinical Lecturer in Public Health MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow

2. MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit

3. GHG emissions growth between 2000 and 2010 has been larger than in the previous three decades. 3 Based on Figure 1.3 Source: IPCC from www.mitigation2014.org

4. MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit About half of cumulative anthropogenic CO 2 emissions between 1750 and 2010 have occurred in the last 40 years. 4 Based on Figure 5.3 Source: IPCC from www.mitigation2014.org

5. MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth report (published this year) WG1: Physical Science Basis WG2: Adaptation What will be the impact of climate change? How can we adapt to reduce the adverse consequences? WG3: Mitigation How can we reduce the magnitude of climate change? Organised into: Energy, Transport, Buildings, Industry and Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU)

6. MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit Without additional mitigation, global mean surface temperature is projected to increase by 3.7 to 4.8°C over the 21 st century. 6 Based on WGII AR5 Figure 19.4 Source: IPCC from www.mitigation2014.org

7. MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit Health in the Green Economy http://www.who.int/hia/green_economy/en/

8. MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit Risk factors for the Global Burden of Disease Risk factorAFOLU? High blood pressure Tobacco (inc SHS) Alcohol Household air pollution (solid fuels) Diet low in fruits High BMI High glucose Childhood underweight Ambient air pollution Physical inactivity Lim, S. S., et al. (2012). "A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010." The Lancet 380(9859): 2224-2260. Table shown for DALYs (both sexes).

9. MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit Risk factors for the Global Burden of Disease Risk factorAFOLU?Why High blood pressure Agriculture influences diet Tobacco (inc SHS) Agricultural product Alcohol Agricultural product Household air pollution (solid fuels) Use of forestry and agricultural residues Diet low in fruits Agriculture influences diet High BMI Agriculture influences diet and PA High glucose Agriculture influences diet Childhood underweight Agriculture influences diet Ambient air pollution Emissions eg from meat production Physical inactivity Largest employment sector Lim, S. S., et al. (2012). "A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010." The Lancet 380(9859): 2224-2260. Table shown for DALYs (both sexes).

10. MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit Mechanisms to health impacts MechanismHealth impacts Environmental degradationAdverse impacts of agriculture on environment Food security and nutritionMalnutrition: protein energy and/or micronutrient. Non-communicable diseasesObesity and tobacco Infectious diseasesVector-borne and zoonotic diseases; Antibiotic resistance Occupational health risksInjuries; Exposure to chemicals Social & economic determinants of health and equity Socio-economic impacts and their distribution

11. MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit Potential win-wins Dietary diversity May mean increasing consumption for some parts of the world: a ‘contraction and convergence’ approach Healthier meat consumption Role of red meat in NCDs, water stress and antibiotic resistance Improving crop productivity Need to balance short-term gains with long-term sustainability Reducing tobacco production Deforestation, soil degradation and occupational risks Equity Ensure equity-promoting e.g. Dangers of limiting importation of food

12. MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit Difficulties in assessment Timescale Short-term vs long-term Geography Context matters! Conflicting evidence about health impacts Conflicting evidence about sectoral impacts Evidence vs Precautionary Principle Vested interests

13. MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit Acknowledgements Lead for agriculture expertise Tara Garnett WHO Elaine Fletcher Carlos Dora Francesco Branca Finola Hackett NHS Lothian Margaret Douglas N.B. The views expressed do not represent the WHO. A final report is still in preparation.

14. MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit Climate change and health Climate change could be the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. Effects on health of climate change will be felt by most populations in the next decades and put the lives and wellbeing of billions of people at increased risk. During this century, the earth's average surface temperature rises are likely to exceed the safe threshold of 2°C above pre- industrial average temperature. The Lancet (2009). Managing the health effects of climate change. The Lancet and University College of London Commission on Climate Change.

15. MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit

16. Climate change and health Effects of climate change on health will affect most populations in the next decades and put the lives and wellbeing of billions of people at increased risk. During this century, earth’s average surface temperature rises are likely to exceed the safe threshold of 2°C above preindustrial average temperature.[...] Although vector-borne diseases will expand their reach and death tolls, especially among elderly people, will increase because of heatwaves, the indirect effects of climate change on water, food security, and extreme climatic events are likely to have the biggest effect on global health. Costello, A., et al. "Managing the health effects of climate change: Lancet and University College London Institute for Global Health Commission." The Lancet 373(9676): 1693-1733.