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Global Change Impact Studies Centre Islamabad, Pakistan Nazim Ali.

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Presentation on theme: "Global Change Impact Studies Centre Islamabad, Pakistan Nazim Ali."— Presentation transcript:

1 Global Change Impact Studies Centre Islamabad, Pakistan Nazim Ali

2 Irrigated Landscape of District Gujrat

3 Wheat Production in Districts of Punjab Pakistan Gujrat (SDPI, 2004)

4 Rice Production in Districts of Punjab Pakistan Gujrat (SDPI, 2004)

5 Food Production in Districts of Punjab, Pakistan Gujrat (SDPI, 2004)

6 Important Commodities ProductionConsumptionDifference (000) Ton. Wheat/Flour223.90229.6-28.16 Rice53.3017.226.93 Potato1.6623.9-22.86 Tomato0.194.5-4.42 Onion0.3222.5-22.31 ( Green gram ( Moong) 0.821.7-1.17 Lentil1.101.7 Mash1.231.2-0.44 Gram0.374.5-4.32 PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION OF MAJOR FOOD ITEMS IN GUJRAT, PAKISTAN (GoP, 2003 & SDPI, 2004)

7 Difference in Release and Procurement of Wheat by Food Department Gujrat (GoP, 2004)

8 Approaches to understand Agricultural Marketing System The Functional Approach The Functional Approach Institutional Approach Institutional Approach Commodity Approach Commodity Approach Behavioral System Approach Behavioral System Approach

9 Distribution Channels for Food Items in Pakistan-I Selling agentBrokerBuying agent Producer Village Dealer Government ProcessorRetailerconsumer Wheat ProducerCommission agentRetailerConsumerPhariawala Vegetable (Qamar M.D, 1998)

10 Producer Village Dealer PASSCO Commission Agent Private Exporter Processor Whole-seller Outside buyer Rice Export corporation RetailerConsumer Distribution Channels for Food Items in Pakistan-II Rice Commission agent ProducerPre-harvest contractorPhriawalaRetailerConsumer Fruits

11 Distribution Channels for Food Items in Pakistan-II ProducerMilk carrierProcessor Wholesaler/ commission agent RetailerConsumer wholesaler Producer/ Poultry farmers collectorsRetailerConsumer Milk Eggs Farmers’ Share of Consumers’ Expenditure Less Perishable  65% Perishable  35%

12 Typical Problems of Farmers in Marketing in Pakistan Production-orientation Production-orientation Small marketable surplus Small marketable surplus Inefficient produce preparation Inefficient produce preparation Ineffective rural assembly markets Ineffective rural assembly markets Credit availability Credit availability Lack of group action Lack of group action Lack of vertical co-ordination of marketing channels. Lack of vertical co-ordination of marketing channels.

13 Import of Agricultural Commodities CommodityQuantity (m. tonnes)Value (b. Rs.) Edible Oils1.19724.03 Tea0.0999.61 Pulses0.4608.31 Fruits0.2353.08 Vegetables0.1231.75 Ginger & Garlic0.0701.45 Spices0.0211.10 Seed0.0130.88 Total2.21850.21 (GoP, 2003)

14 Export of Agricultural Commodities Commodity Quantity (m. tonnes) Value (B. Rs.) Rice Coarse 1.13411.64 Rice Basmati 0.55015.86 Raw Cotton 0.0381.55 Cotton Waste 0.0972.26 Cotton Yarn 0.54057.14 Guar Products 0.0230.97 Fruits0.2905.08 Vegetables0.1341.21 Total2.80695.71 (GoP, 2003)

15 Government Interventions in Price Stability Government of Pakistan annually reviews and announces the support prices of important commodities Crops Wheat, Rice, Cotton, Sugarcane, Potato, Gram, Onion, Oilseeds Objectives To protect farmers against undue fall in prices To promote farm investment on sustainable basis To stabilize prices in off-season (GOP, 2001)

16 Price Determinants Cost of production Import/export parity prices Domestic and world demand/supply Change in nominal and real price Profitability in the use of inputs Comparatives economics of competing crops Production targets Impact on other sectors of economy Outcome Crops covered under price program experience not only positive growth rates area and production but also in productivity (GOP, 2001) Government Interventions in Price Stability

17 PER CAPITA MONTHLY CONSUMPTION OF MAJOR FOOD ITEMS CommoditiesUnits Overall Average Income Groups 1ST2ND3RD4TH5TH Average no of member of HH 6.548.127.396.916.115.24 Wheat/Flour (kg) Kg9.598.39.489.7310.1710.13 Rice/Flour (kg) Kg0.720.430.570.650.881.02 Biscuitgm15.883.475.9710.9615.4239.46 Pulses(kg)0.380.220.290.390.410.58 Milkltr6.842.824.655.927.8511.98 Milk (Packed) Ltr2.991.131.652.473.645.53 GheeKg0.050.010.020.040.060.13 Vegetable Ghee Kg0.660.470.60.670.750.77 Cooking Oil kg0.060.010.010.030.040.18 Muttonkg0.120.020.040.060.120.33 BeefKg0.220.10.180.220.260.34 Chicken meat kg0.130.020.050.090.130.35 EggsNo.1.540.460.7211.683.49 FruitsKg2.480.71.311.792.525.56 VegetableKg3.792.483.183.594.125.29

18 Percentage Change in Per Capita Monthly Consumption of Major Food Items ItemsUnits Income Quintiles 1st2nd3rd4th5th Average no of member of HH 0-9-15-25-35 Wheat/Flour (kg) Kg014172322 Rice/Flour (kg) Kg03351105137 Biscuitgm0722163441037 Pulses(kg)0327786164 Milkltr065110178325 Milk (Packed) Ltr046119222389 GheeKg01003005001200 CurdKg01213076001136 Vegetable Ghee Kg028436064 Cooking Oil kg002003001700 Muttonkg01002005001550 BeefKg080120160240 Chicken meat kg01503505501650 EggsNo.057117265659 FruitsKg087156260694 VegetableKg0284566113

19 Source of Calories Sources of Calories PunjabSindhNWFPBaluchistan Average Intake2673225721892424 All Grains (%)65.27068.570.1 Wheat (%)609.551.467.1 Rice (%)4.260.39.11.8 Milk (%)6.39.151 Meat/Fish/Poultry (%)21.83.11.5 Own Production/Gifts (%)57.35033.113.5 IFPRI, 1993

20 Factors affecting Nutrition Fluctuation in income do not translate in to fluctuations in calories intake in rural household.Fluctuation in income do not translate in to fluctuations in calories intake in rural household. Households cope with seasonal low and higher prices through savings and storage of grainsHouseholds cope with seasonal low and higher prices through savings and storage of grains Calories-income elasticities in the sample household range from 0.12 to 0.39Calories-income elasticities in the sample household range from 0.12 to 0.39 Education of Women is foun to be key factor in achieving the better nutritionEducation of Women is foun to be key factor in achieving the better nutrition Education of women is nearly three times effective than increasing income by 10 percentEducation of women is nearly three times effective than increasing income by 10 percent Diarrhea and illness strongly determine the nutritional status of pre-schoolersDiarrhea and illness strongly determine the nutritional status of pre-schoolers IFPRI, 1993

21 Preferences in Food Gender In the village, female family members control sphere of food in their homes. 80% male members always get privilege in food distribution even if they were not at home their portion was kept aside before serving to other members of the family Change in Preference There has been a rapid exogenous decline over time in the share of gram. The demand for chicken was faster after 1982-83 than before it i.e. there was a structural change in consumer preferences.

22 Food Processing Why Processing Post harvest losses of fruits and vegetables are an important factor of food deficit in the country. In general, post harvest losses of food crops are approximately 20% of the harvest and in the case of fruits and vegetables these losses are about 30% to 40%. Most of these losses take place at storage, transportation and processing. (Rana, 2000) Food Processing Food industry is the largest industry of Pakistan accounting for 27 percent of the total value-added production, and 16 percent of the total employment in the manufacturing sector.

23 Food Toxins Chemical Toxins Biological Toxins Extrinsic Chemicals Intrinsic Chemicals Agro-Chem. Food additives Processing plants Food processing Packing materials Env.pollutants Examples: Fungi Microbes Bacteria Viruses etc. Plant Toxins: Dietary fiber Acids Tannins etc.

24 Extent of Adulteration in Food Items Type of Food % of Adulteration Milk and milk products 61 Oil and oil products 62 Beverages 46 Cereals and cereals products 36 Spices and condiments 58 Bakery and Confectionary Products 46 Sweats 58 Sugar 6 Miscellaneous items 16

25 Pesticide Residues in Rice Pesticide Paddy receiving stage Brown rice after husking Rice after polishing Rice after fumigation Padan (Cartap) 0.010.0160.0010.002 Furadan (Carbofuron) 0.0150.0430.070.003 Gamma BHC (Lindane) 0.001Traces--

26 Food Insecurity in Districts of Punjab


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