1. Harald Winkler, Randall Spalding-Fecher, Stanford Mwakasonda & Ogunlade Davidson Energy & Development Research Centre University of Cape Town Sustainable development policies and measures

2. 2 What is the SD-PAMs approach? Sustainable development (SD) policies and measures (PAMs) Sustainable development (SD) policies and measures (PAMs) Backcast from desired future state of development, not GHG reduction goal or cap Backcast from desired future state of development, not GHG reduction goal or cap  define more sustainable paths to meet development objectives Climate change as ‘ancillary benefit’ of achieving SD Climate change as ‘ancillary benefit’ of achieving SD  Developing countries (DC) focused on basic development needs; climate change not a priority  commit to implementing SD policies in practice Basis in Article 3.4 of the Convention – the right to sustainable development Basis in Article 3.4 of the Convention – the right to sustainable development

3. 3 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 199020002010202020302040205020602070208020902100 IPCC SRES B1 Scenarios 450 550 B1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 199020002010202020302040205020602070208020902100 IPCC SRES A1T Scenarios A1T 450 550 650 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 199020002010202020302040205020602070208020902100 IPCC SRES B2 Scenarios 450 550 650 B2 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 199020002010202020302040205020602070208020902100 IPCC SRES A1FI Scenarios 450 550 6 750 A B2B1 Emissions from development path matter at least as much as mitigation policy A1TA1FI Source: IPCC 2001 Third Assessment Report, WG3, p. 151 IPCC Emission Scenarios (grey) versus emissions path needed for stabilisation (red)

4. 4 Steps in applying SD PAMs 1. Country outlines future development objectives  backcasting from long term goals where possible 2. Identify PAMs to achieve development objectives more sustainably, for reasons other than CC a.Existing policy not fully implemented; or b.New policies and / or more stringent measures 3. Quantify the changes in GHG emissions from individual PAMs 4. Identify PAMs with synergies or conflicts between SD benefits and GHG limitations 5. Summarise the net impact of a basket of SD-PAMs on development and GHG emissions

5. 5 Disadvantages of SD-PAMs approach Does not ensure a global reduction or cap on GHG emissions Does not ensure a global reduction or cap on GHG emissions  reduces emissions from BAU, not from 1990 levels Analytically hard to summarise net impacts of basket of PAMs on GHGs Analytically hard to summarise net impacts of basket of PAMs on GHGs  See SA case study in the chapter in the book

6. 6 Advantages of SD-PAMs approach Starts from SD, which DC policymakers prioritise Starts from SD, which DC policymakers prioritise  Extend and implement existing domestic policies  synergies are ‘win-win’ or ‘no-regrets’ policies  Builds DC leadership by showing what DC are doing Takes account of national circumstances Takes account of national circumstances  builds in domestic energy resource endowment, climate, levels of industrialisation and motorisation, income  develops capacity to mitigate Create incentives for early DC action – differentiated responsibility and action Create incentives for early DC action – differentiated responsibility and action Helps build a climate of trust for potential future commitments Helps build a climate of trust for potential future commitments

7. 7 Institutional challenge: Formalising the approach Accountability in a pledge-based approach Accountability in a pledge-based approach  How does this link to the UNFCCC / KP system?  Countries make pledges  Countries make pledges to implement SD-PAMs  Commitments under UNFCCC Article 4.1 b and 4.1 f  Mandatory reporting under new registry versus reporting in National Communications

8. 8 The funding challenge: Who pays? For PAMs that reduce emissions For PAMs that reduce emissions  Annex II already have commitment for incremental costs of implementing mitigation measures and full costs of formulation and reporting (Article 4.3)  For additional funds, access GEF, CDM, new Convention and KP funds  Broader than CDM – need national, sectoral baselines to assess impact For PAMs that do not reduce emissions For PAMs that do not reduce emissions  Access ODA, Dev Banks, private capital Since it promotes development, may mobilise domestic funding more readily Since it promotes development, may mobilise domestic funding more readily

9. 9 What you won’t find in this presentation …  … but can read in the chapter in the book! More detailed ideas about implementing SD-PAMs More detailed ideas about implementing SD-PAMs  Defining and formalising the commitment  What might baselines for SD be?  Timing and graduation issues  How should SD-PAMs be reviewed and accounted for? Link between climate policies and SD policies Link between climate policies and SD policies More on funding More on funding Case study: SD-PAMs applied to South African situation Case study: SD-PAMs applied to South African situation

10. 10 Concluding remarks Climate change negotiations have to address the political priorities of DCs Climate change negotiations have to address the political priorities of DCs SD PAMs is an possible first step in DC participation SD PAMs is an possible first step in DC participation Can start now and continue in parallel to negotiations around second commitment period Can start now and continue in parallel to negotiations around second commitment period

11. www.edrc.uct.ac.za Thank you for listening

12. 12 Which developing countries might find it attractive? Least Developed Countries in particular? Least Developed Countries in particular? Rapidly industrialising countries Rapidly industrialising countries  would not have surplus under top-down allocation schemes Analytical Analytical  grouping by emissions intensity (CO2 / GDP), ability to pay (GDP / pop), Human Dev Index?

13. 13 Equity and future commitment regimes One major question: How to set up a framework for global participation in the effort to combat climate change? One major question: How to set up a framework for global participation in the effort to combat climate change?  Top-down approaches: can guarantee an environmental outcome  Bottom-up approaches: politically more likely to bring DCs into the system  Could include this slide, leave out points on slide 7? And what about the graphic? Consider both responsibility of countries, and their capacity to meet targets Consider both responsibility of countries, and their capacity to meet targets SD-PAMs a bottom-up approach that builds capacity in DCs SD-PAMs a bottom-up approach that builds capacity in DCs

14. 14 Implementation challenges: conceptual What is the baseline for SD? Business-as-usual? What is the baseline for SD? Business-as-usual?  Conventional development / dirty development  Current policy? Or implementation?  Multi-sectoral - how many baselines can you monitor  How to prevent gaming  countries claiming existing policies as ‘new’ SD-PAMs Link between SD-PAMs and climate mitigation policies Link between SD-PAMs and climate mitigation policies  end up dealing with energy services, transport, housing  difference in the motivation / starting point - to achieve development or to reduce GHGs