1. Icosystem Corporation and Predictive Analytics IOP 2006 January 18, 2006

2. Who knows what the future holds? Predicting the future requires more than looking at the past…

3. Who knows what the future holds?

4. Predictive Analytics Icosystem uses advanced analytical techniques that dont just extrapolate the past into the future. Agent Based Modeling Interactive Search Agent Based Modeling Interactive Search History shows you don't know what the future brings. -Rick Wagoner, GM CEO

5. Who uses our models? Corporate: Aventis BP DuPont Eli Lilly Humana La Poste PepsiCo Schlumberger Unilever Government: Air Force Research Lab U.S. Army DARPA DISA IDA NUWC OFT ONR

6. What is Agent Based Modeling? Bottom-up simulations from the perspective of an individual person/company/market Interactions between individuals change behaviors during course of simulation Global trends emerge, rather than being determined up front

7. Emergent behavior: the Icosystem game

8. Computer simulation of the Icosystem game A is the aggressor, B the defender, try to keep B between you and A A is the aggressor, you are the defender, keep yourself between A and B See demo at http://www.icosystem.com/game.htmhttp://www.icosystem.com/game.htm

9. Why is this interesting? The Icosystem Game: a deceptively simple complex system Knowing the behavior of every individual is not enough to predict system behavior Slight changes in rules or interactions can lead to dramatic changes in system behavior The traditional reductionist (i.e., divide- and-conquer) does not work!

10. Supermarket Shopper Behavior Parking lot Produce Deli Registers Entrance Frozen food CSD entrance target Client: Fortune 500 consumer goods company Challenge: Understand behavior of shoppers moving through a supermarket How do they navigate? What do they purchase? Where to place products? Complexities: Correlate cart tracking data with consumer behavior Predict behavior for novel supermarket configurations Outcome: Identified key behavioral drivers; tool development contracted in Q205. Client: Fortune 500 consumer goods company Challenge: Understand behavior of shoppers moving through a supermarket How do they navigate? What do they purchase? Where to place products? Complexities: Correlate cart tracking data with consumer behavior Predict behavior for novel supermarket configurations Outcome: Identified key behavioral drivers; tool development contracted in Q205.

11. Predictive Analytics Technique #2: Interactive Search I know well what I am fleeing from, but not what I am in search of. -Michel de Montaigne

12. Drug Discovery Client: Fortune 100 pharma company Challenge: Increase the success rate/ quality of molecules in the early stages of drug development Complexities: Vast search space Chemist knowledge cannot be completely codified Huge expense for each failure Outcome: Created tool which generates novel compound designs based on interactive chemist feedback Client: Fortune 100 pharma company Challenge: Increase the success rate/ quality of molecules in the early stages of drug development Complexities: Vast search space Chemist knowledge cannot be completely codified Huge expense for each failure Outcome: Created tool which generates novel compound designs based on interactive chemist feedback

13. olympic food transit religion bobsled skiing gold bronze rings security pins national ceremony biathlon skating winter torch Torino US troops preparation buying rice eggplant spices shortage cafe burghal lamb pride lentil pastry storage saffron safety road truck bus car pedestrian goat bridge checkpoint barricade explosion helicopter engineer build mosque prayer fundamental Muslim SunniShia Al Qaeda Festival of Eid freedom jihad peace defend save forgive war United States Marines Army defend uniforms guns bomb kill save brave war Iraq liberty elections success destroy children safety toys play learn friend Xbox 360 bike laugh train school English Baby Noor doll pencil Interactive Search applied to Open Source information What if we could easily monitor communication volume AND content?

14. olympic transit religion bobsled skiing gold bronze rings pins national ceremony biathlon skating winter Torino road truck bus car pedestrian goat bridge checkpoint barricade explosion helicopter engineer build mosque prayer fundamental Muslim SunniShia Al Qaeda Festival of Eid freedom jihad peace defend save forgive war United States Marines Army defend uniforms bomb kill save brave war Iraq liberty success destroy children safety toys play learn friend Xbox 360 bike laugh train school English Baby Noor doll pencil food buying rice shortage cafe burghal lentil pastry storage safety saffron US troops preparation eggplant spices lamb Interactive Search applied to Open Source information shortage US troops rice burghal Oil-for-food safety farmers drought giant hamsters heat refrigeration starvation seeds water irrigation labor giant hamsters airdrop starvation hamsters of mass destruction unleash hamster plague destroy destroy rations US troops

15. Come see us at our table! My therapist told me the way to achieve true inner peace is to finish what I start. So far today, I have finished 2 bags of M and M's and a chocolate cake. I feel better already. - Dave Barry

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